DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 7-11)

On yesterday’s blog post I talked about a parade of rather weak low pressure systems ahead, and that outlook remains the same. A fast-moving low will pass to our north tonight with a general light snowfall for northern New England, but here in the WHW forecast area in southeastern New England, we may see just a passing snow shower, favoring areas north of I-90, during this evening and tonight. This will bring a surge of colder air back in for Monday. The next system, a small and weakening low pressure area, will pass north of our region Tuesday evening, again with a passing snow shower chance north of I-90. This will be followed quickly by another clipper-style low moving our way via the Great Lakes, but again with a track that will take it north of our region. This system will have a little more moisture to work with, but also drag in some milder air, with initial snow showers going over to mostly rain showers on Wednesday. Behind this comes another surge of cold air for Thursday with a slight chance of a passing snow flurry, but mainly dry and blustery conditions being the highlight.

TODAY: Partly to mostly cloudy. Highs 34-41. Wind W to SW up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A passing snow shower possible mainly north of I-90 but favoring southern NH. Lows 15-22. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 8-15. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 28-35. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A snow shower possible favoring southern NH. Lows 20-27. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous snow/mix to rain showers. Highs 38-45. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Lots of clouds with a lingering rain or snow shower early, then clearing. Lows 17-24. Wind shifting to NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Sun and passing clouds with a slight chance of a snow flurry. Highs 32-39. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 12-16)

Watch periods for potential low pressure impact December 12-13 and again later in the period. Temperatures below normal may trend back toward normal later on.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 17-21)

Not a high-confidence forecast here but best educated guess leads me to lean to one storm traveling into the Great Lakes with a brief warm-up before a return to cold (with a boundary with warmer air not that far to our south). This may increase the opportunity for mix/snow later in the period.

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 6-10)

The pattern during the next 5 days will feature several quick-moving, generally weak low pressure systems to have minor impact overall (in terms of precipitation) but some notable temperature swings with the overall pattern being colder than the long-term average for this point in the season. The first such system is a low pressure area passing well to our south today but its large cloud canopy making it mainly overcast. A northward-extending trough from that low will cause a few snow and rain showers in the region this morning until about midday. The next system will be a clipper-style low passing just to our north Sunday night. This low will have a snow area with it but its track keeps it mainly north of the WHW forecast area, with just a few snow showers occurring mainly to the north of I-90 on Sunday night. Another weakening system flies north of the area Tuesday evening with a remote chance of a snow shower that will favor southern NH with less chance to the south. A slightly more formidable low pressure area, again clipper-style, will head our way via the Great Lakes on Wednesday. The early indications on this are a track to the north, enough to pull milder air into the region making the precipitation, still minor, more likely to be rain showers than snow showers for our region.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered snow showers I-90 region northward and mix / rain showers south of I-90 until midday. Highs 35-42. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming mainly W.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 18-25. Wind W up to 10 MPH becoming calm.

SUNDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 34-41. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered snow showers southern NH and northern MA, isolated snow showers to the south. Lows 13-20. Wind shifting to NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 8-15. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 28-35. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A snow shower possible favoring southern NH. Lows 20-27. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Increasing chance of mix to rain showers. Highs 38-45. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 11-15)

Reinforced cold arrives to start the period along with wind. Watching one or two clipper-style low pressure areas for mix/snow chances mid period before dry, cold weather returns at end of period.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 16-20)

Guidance trends have been wish-washy the last couple days – basically no help for this period of time. Expectations for indices that tend to control the pattern as well as little use of forecast persistence (old forecast tool I learned as a novice) leads me to not change things too much at this point. I’ll watch for a potential low into the Great Lakes and a brief warm-up, then the region near a battle zone between mild air to the south and cold from Canada, the latter of which probably ends up winning out, and not without a precipitation potential before the end of the period. Lots of time to solve the pattern puzzle here…

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 5-9)

Today we get a glancing shot of the coldest airmass of the late autumn / early meteorological winter so far, with dry weather, and a diminishing wind as high pressure builds in. Tonight and Saturday morning, we watch low pressure pass to our south. A northward extension of a low pressure trough can bring some snow showers to the region Saturday morning and midday – though it may warm just enough for this to mix with or turn to rain showers near the South Coast before ending. Either way, it’s a minor event, then gone. We’ll watch for a small low pressure area to move quickly our way later Sunday, passing just to the north, dragging another strong cold front through the region, with a snow shower chance Sunday late day and night. Reinforcing cold arrives for early next week with dry weather.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 23-30. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill often below 20.

TONIGHT: Clouds increase. Lows 13-20 evening, rising slowly overnight. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy morning-midday with scattered to numerous snow showers, may turn to rain showers south of I-90 before ending. Highs 35-42. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming W.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind W up to 10 MPH becoming calm.

SUNDAY: Clouds increase. Snow shower chance late-day. Highs 34-41. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Lots of clouds with snow showers likely early, then clearing. Lows 12-19. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 8-15. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 28-35. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 10-14)

Pattern brings two minor precipitation chances – early December 10, and again later in the period around December 13. Temperatures variable, but mostly below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 15-19)

One storm may track into the Great Lakes and bring a brief warm-up early in the period before cold air returns for most of the period. One or two clipper systems bring snow or snow shower chances mid to late period.

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 4-8)

A cold and mostly dry pattern is what we have now, but despite the overall dry nature, it’s active, because there are 3 “weather systems” to contend with. The first is an arctic cold front which creates a few snow showers and perhaps a narrow band of heavier snow squalls, favoring areas north of I-90, later today. Watch for that which, if it occurs, can briefly reduce visibility significantly and coat the roads with snow. For folks along the coast, today’s full moon (a super moon) will produce a king tide with areas prone to flooding seeing some of it. Thankfully this is not occurring at the same time as a major coastal storm. The coldest air mass of the season so far will give us a glancing blow tonight and Friday before moving on. Friday night and the first half of Saturday, low pressure will travel to our south, but a little northward extension of the trough from it can produce some snow showers in our area (maybe mix South Coast) – however this will be a minor event. We then watch for another strong cold front to bring a chance of snow showers later Sunday and reinforce the cold air heading into Monday.

TODAY: Partly sunny. A late-day snow shower or snow squall potential, favoring the I-90 belt northward. Highs 37-44. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy early with an evening snow shower potential, followed by clearing. Lows 8-15. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill approaches 0.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 23-30. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill often below 20.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers overnight. Lows 15-22 evening, but may rise slightly overnight. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers through midday except rain or snow showers South Coast. Highs 35-42. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming W.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind W up to 10 MPH becoming calm.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of late-day snow showers. Highs 35-42. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 10-17. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 9-13)

Pattern brings two minor precipitation chances – late December 9 to early December 10, and again later in the period, timing uncertain. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 14-18)

One storm may track into the Great Lakes and bring a brief warm-up, but overall pattern trends colder. Two precipitation changes but no indication of major storms at this point.

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 3-7)

Today’s caution is to watch for icy untreated surfaces in areas where temperatures are near or below freezing at the surface. This will ease up as it climbs above freezing and much drier air and a gusty breeze is present today, resulting in melting / sublimation. Patchy clouds (from departing upper low) and fair weather (from approaching high pressure) will be around today. Thursday’s weather will be mainly fair, but watch for a line or cluster or two of snow showers and potential heavier snow squalls between mid afternoon and early evening – northwest to southeast – associated with an arctic cold front passing through the region. Any heavier snow showers / squalls can rapidly but briefly reduce visibility and produce a quick coating of snow that can lead to hazardous travel. This front ushers in a very cold air mass for Thursday night and Friday, but it doesn’t hang around too long as the core passes quickly. Low pressure passes well south of our region Friday night and Saturday morning with a shot at a little light snowfall, but this looks rather insignificant. A small high pressure builds in with fair weather Saturday afternoon into Sunday, before yet another strong cold front brings a snow shower chance later Sunday.

TODAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 23-30. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. A late-day snow shower or snow squall potential north and west of Boston. Highs 37-44. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy early with an evening snow shower potential Boston area south. Clearing after. Lows 8-15. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill approaches 0.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 23-30. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill often below 20.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light snow. Lows 15-22 evening, but may rise slightly overnight. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of light snow in the morning. Highs 34-41. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming W.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind W up to 10 MPH becoming calm.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of late-day snow showers. Highs 35-42. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 8-12)

Trend is fairly dry with below normal temps overall. A minor system can bring some precipitation mid period, but looks like a brief and insignificant event.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 13-17)

One or two precipitation threats in this period with a little more up-and-down temp swings, can include a brief but notable warm-up.

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 2-6)

It’s now the “day-of” the long-talked-about storm threat, which all along has not really looked like that big a deal. Basically there are no changes to what I said yesterday. So basically reiterating, a dual system passing by our region today and tonight consists of a weakening northern system and a strengthening system to the south, the latter of which has a low center that takes over the action as it passes to our south, intensifying, but not at a very rapid rate. Also working with marginal temperatures in place, and the warming influence of the ocean, this system will have a rain/snow line that is mainly north and west of Boston for most of its duration, starting out in the northwest suburbs closer to the city at the onset of precipitation during the mid morning to midday hours, then moving more to the northwest through the time of the low pressure area’s closest pass, before being pulled back to the southeast as the storm begins to move away from the region, with the rain/snow line likely reaching Metro Boston just as the precipitation begins its taper-off process. Additionally, prior to all of this, an initial southerly air flow and a little convergence is creating a band of mix/rain showers in parts of RI and east central MA that will fade by mid morning. This is an indicator of the milder air at the surface which is going to prevent much of any snow from occurring over the South Coast / MA South Shore areas. Snow amounts forecasts haven’t changed and will be reflected again in the detailed forecast section below. Once this storm exits, a quick chill-down will create icy untreated surfaces late tonight into Wednesday morning, so be careful if traveling (by foot or vehicle) during this time. Daytime Wednesday I expect dry, breezy, chilly weather behind the storm system. Still watching for the timing and potential rain and snow showers / squalls with the passage of a sharp cold front later Thursday. Leaning toward a late afternoon snow shower or potential squall in areas north and west of Boston and an evening snow or rain shower with more marginal temps to the south. This front will usher in a very cold air mass for early December, with well-below-normal temperatures, dry weather, and a gusty wind for Friday. A weak low pressure area and trough extending to the north of it will pass by Friday night and Saturday morning with a bit of light snow possible, and a secondary trough may cause a snow flurry later Saturday as well, but that system looks rather benign at this point.

TODAY: Overcast. Precipitation arrives prior to midday north and west of Boston, around midday Boston southward – snow to potential mix I-495 to I-90 north and west, snow/mix to rain I-95 belt, mainly rain but can start as brief mix Boston south. Highs 33-40 except 40-47 Cape Cod / Islands. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Precipitation ending followed by overnight clearing. Expected snow totals generally a trace to 1 inch I-95 belt with closest to 1 inch most likely inland, 1 to 3 inches interior southern NH and I-495 / I-90 region west from I-495 westward, 3 to 6 inches higher elevations Worcester County to interior southern NH, with isolated 6+ amounts at highest elevations. Lows 22-30. Wind shifting to NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 32-39. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 22-29. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. A late-day snow shower or snow squall potential north and west of Boston. Highs 37-44. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy early with an evening rain/snow shower potential Boston area south. Clearing after. Lows 8-15. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill can approach 0.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 23-30. Wind NW 5-15 MPH. Wind chill often below 20.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light snow. Lows 15-22 evening, but may rise slightly overnight. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of light snow early. Chance of a snow shower in the afternoon. Highs 33-40. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 7-11)

Watching for a couple systems to pass through or near the region with mostly minor precipitation threats (snow favored over rain) as temperatures stay mostly below normal during this period.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 12-16)

Another one or two systems can threaten with rain/mix/snow but early indications are for no major storms. Temperatures trend milder into mid month as the main storm track shifts to the Great Lakes for these systems.

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 1-5)

December 1 marks the start of “Meteorological Winter” which is the months of December through February, but this is a kind of “forcing it to fit into a neat little box” idea, which I kind of like, but mostly don’t like. The fact is this: It’s still autumn. And the upcoming weather pattern discussed here in this section, including the upcoming storm threat, is to be treated as such – a late autumn one, with factors typical of this time of year impacting and shaping the sensible weather we get. It starts today with a chilly, gusty breeze and dry weather behind a cold front that went by our area last evening, as its parent low in eastern Canada creates a tighter pressure gradient between itself and high pressure drifting into the Northeast via the Ohio Valley. Weather systems in this current pattern are quick-movers, however, and we’re already looking at another low pressure trough sending us unsettled weather for Tuesday. As discussed yesterday, this system is actually two systems. The first one is a trough swinging through the Ohio Valley toward the Northeast. The second is a wave of low pressure from the Gulf, moving across the Southeast, with a low pressure area taking shape off the North Carolina Coast. These 2 systems will not fully merge until beyond our region, and the result is a minor to moderate impact system with ocean-warmed boundary layer air preventing significant snow in the coastal plain while the better chance of enough snow to need shovels and plows occurs inland, especially west and northwest of Boston, favoring higher elevations. It’s also a short-duration precipitation event of about 12 hours (+/- a couple hours), from mid morning to mid evening. The high pressure area that approaches us today will move right on through and not be anchored to the north as you’d see in a pattern that featured more blocking. As the southern low passes by, pretty far offshore, it will be intensifying, and right at the end of the storm it will help to draw in some colder air which can drag a rain/snow line closer to the coast, but this will be toward the end of the system and not allow much time for accumulating snow there once it is cold enough to adhere to surfaces. The colder air coming in behind the storm will be a concern for causing icy surfaces that are untreated. In areas that saw mostly rain, this will be the main concern in terms of slippery surfaces. Wednesday’s weather will be dry as high pressure builds in, and this will help sublimate / dry off those surfaces. Thursday, look for a strong cold front to cross the region later in the day from northwest to southeast with a good chance of some rain and snow shower / squall activity. I still need to pin down timing and intensity / precipitation-type for the activity associated with the front in the next few updates. This front will usher in the coldest air mass we’ve seen so far this season for the end of the week.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 38-45. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clouding up. Lows 22-29. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Overcast. Precipitation arrives prior to midday north and west of Boston, around midday Boston southward – snow to potential mix I-495 to I-90 north and west, snow/mix to rain I-95 belt, mainly rain but can start as brief mix Boston south. Highs 33-40 except 40-47 Cape Cod / Islands. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Precipitation ending followed by overnight clearing. Expected snow totals generally a trace to 1 inch I-95 belt with closest to 1 inch most likely inland, 1 to 3 inches interior southern NH and I-495 / I-90 region west from I-495 westward, 3 to 6 inches higher elevations Worcester County to interior southern NH, with a slight chance of isolated 6+ amounts at highest elevations. Lows 22-30. Wind shifting to NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 32-39. Wind NW 15-25 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 22-29. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain and snow showers. Highs 37-44. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 8-15. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill can approach 0.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 23-30. Wind NW 5-15 MPH. Wind chill often below 20.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 6-10)

Minor storm system comes through with a precipitation threat early December 6, then watching another potential rain/mix/snow threat later December 7 from what also looks like a fairly minor storm system. Generally fair thereafter. Temperatures recover to near normal on the weekend then fall below normal early next week.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 11-15)

Colder pattern may transition to a little milder heading toward mid month as upper air pattern shifts somewhat. A couple of precipitation threat windows exist in this time frame but no early indications of major storms.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 30 – DECEMBER 4)

Last day of November! Here comes another weather system in a month that’s seen quite a few pass by, but a lack of larger storm events. This is no different. A low pressure system moves quickly through the Great Lakes and into southeastern Canada. Its warm front is going by our region this morning with a blanket of mid level clouds, but some snowfall being generated by the front is passing north and west of our area (WHW) as was expected to happen. It’s the cold front trailing the low that will bring us a round or two of rain showers from later this afternoon into this evening as it sweeps across the region from west to east. And then we welcome December with a chilly, blustery day on Monday, but with dry conditions. This sets the stage for our next “weather system” – a much talked about system coming our way from the southwest on Tuesday. As usual, guidance has been all over the place in its array of simulations repeatedly run on the family of models we have access to, for better or for worse, adding a lot of noise to the information stream, but what really counts is what this system is going to actually do to our region. This is my best educated guess: This storm threat is born of 2 “pieces of energy”. The first one is a trough swinging through the Ohio Valley toward the Northeast. The second is a wave of low pressure from the Gulf, moving across the Southeast, with a low pressure area taking shape off the North Carolina Coast. These 2 systems would have to fully merge before a stronger storm could result, and that won’t be happening until they are east of our longitude. What we get is a system that is the result of the process of the merger. Most of our moisture is actually going to come from the northern system, with minor infusion from the southern one. The track of the low associated with the southern system is going to be pretty far off our coast as it goes by, and while it will be strengthening, it’s not doing so at such a rate that helps draw in colder air. We also will lack a cold high to the north, which in the progressive nature of the pattern will be sliding away through Atlantic Canada as what remains of the northern system progresses east northeastward. Despite the track pretty far south, we will be in the circulation of the newer storm, which as you know at this time of year is going to pull ocean-warmed air into the coastal plain. Also, this will be a fairly short-duration event – from about mid morning to mid evening Tuesday – approximately 12 hours. Putting all this together, we’re looking at greatest chances for accumulating snow that you have to perform snow removal for outside of the I-95 belt – favoring higher elevations of southern NH and central MA, while chances for that kind of snowfall drop off rapidly the further east and south you go, in favor of a rain event – which could start as mix/snow and end as mix/snow for some depending on the precipitation and temperature profile as the system comes through. There will be colder air coming in right behind the system, so icing up of untreated surfaces will be a concern by the early hours of Wednesday. Wednesday’s weather will be dry, chilly, and breezy behind the system. A cold front is expected to cross the region on Thursday from northwest to southeast, bringing the chance of rain and snow showers. I’ll look a little more closely at that for timing and rain showers vs. snow showers in the next update.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely west to east by late-day. Highs 45-52. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 30-37. Wind shifting to W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 38-45. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Lows 22-29. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Overcast. Precipitation arrives prior to midday north and west of Boston, around midday Boston southward – snow to potential mix I-495 to I-90 north and west, snow/mix to rain I-95 belt, mainly rain but can start as brief mix Boston south. Highs 33-40 except 40-47 Cape Cod / Islands. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Precipitation ending followed by overnight clearing. Expected snow totals generally a trace to 1 inch I-95 belt with closest to 1 inch most likely inland, 1 to 3 inches interior southern NH and I-495 / I-90 region west from I-495 westward, 3 to 6 inches higher elevations Worcester County to interior southern NH, with a slight chance of isolated 6+ amounts at highest elevations. Lows 22-30. Wind shifting to NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 32-39. Wind NW 15-25 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 22-29. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain and snow showers. Highs 37-44. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 5-9)

With a somewhat active jet stream pattern (doesn’t mean all hits here) it is somewhat difficult to time unsettled weather threats, but eyeing late December 5 to early December 6, and December 7 as potential unsettled time frames. No solid indications of major storminess and too early to determine any precipitation types / transitions. Overall temperature pattern favors near to slightly below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 10-14)

Colder pattern may transition to a little milder heading toward mid month as upper air pattern shifts somewhat. A couple of precipitation threat windows exist in this time frame with fine-tuning to come.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 29 – DECEMBER 3)

High pressure builds in today with dry, cold conditions, but diminishing wind. The high slides off to the northeast by Sunday as low pressure tracks through the Great Lakes. Its warm front passes by in the morning but produces some snow/mix north and west of the WHW forecast area. We have abundant cloud cover and at best very limited sun (very early morning some areas and maybe a break or two midday into afternoon). The cold front trailing the low produces rain showers from west to east from mid afternoon to mid evening before exiting offshore. Behind this system, December arrives with a chilly, dry, breezy day on Monday. A pattern of quick-moving systems means the next low pressure area rockets northeastward from the US Southeast on Tuesday and brings a swath of precipitation into our region by Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. The dilemma with this upcoming threat with not much help from wishy-washy guidance is to figure out the exact track and rate of deepening of low pressure which both play a role in determining precipitation type and intensity. Our antecedent air mass will be chilly, but not really a deeply cold one with no solid high pressure area to the north to hold that cold air in place. Being very early December, the ocean water temperature is still relatively warm (compared to where it will be by mid winter). As far as low pressure goes, I am continuing to lean toward a flatter, faster system, a little bit further south than some of the guidance shows, along with slower deepening. While this is a slightly colder scenario, it doesn’t lock in a significant snowfall especially for areas near and east of I-95, because of the antecedent marginal temps and the ocean’s influence. So the current leaning is for a relatively short-duration event, with light to borderline snowfall potential inland and mix to rain at the coast and to the south of Boston. There are still 3 regular blog updates to come to refine and finalize this forecast. Regardless of the storm details, it’s gone by Wednesday, which will be a dry, blustery, and colder day.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind W 5-15 MPH, diminishing late.

TONIGHT: Clear evening. Increasing high clouds overnight. Lows 18-25. Wind calm.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely west to east by late-day. Highs 45-52. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 30-37. Wind shifting to W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 38-45. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Lows 22-29. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Overcast. Snow/mix/rain probable. Highs 35-42. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy early with precipitation ending. Clearing overnight. Lows 22-30. Wind shifting to NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 32-39. Wind NW 15-25 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 4-8)

Overall pattern is set to feature near to below normal temperatures. Watching for a frontal passage December 4 and potential low pressure impact some time over the December 6-7 weekend, but leaning toward that being a miss to the south.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 9-13)

Colder pattern continues. Difficult to time potential precipitation threats, but a mid period frontal passage and a late period low pressure impact potential are being watched.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 28 – DECEMBER 2)

Look out! Black Friday is here. If you’re doing the classic shopping run-around or attempting outside lights and decorations for the holiday season, you’ll be met with chilly air and a very gusty breeze as the air flows between high pressure to our west and low pressure over southeastern Canada. We’ll have to watch for some snow showers that may migrate our way from the Great Lakes with the help of a pool of cold air passing overhead making it a bit more unstable today. At worst, a couple of these snow showers could briefly dust surfaces that are cold enough, although some measurable amounts are possible in highest elevations, otherwise I don’t expect any major issues from any that occur. High pressure moving closer to the region will keep the cold in place but as the pressure gradient relaxes with the eastern Canadian storm moving further away, Saturday will see less wind and plenty of sunshine. The next low pressure system heads for southeastern Canada via the Great Lakes on Sunday. A warm front extending from this low will pass by our region in the morning, but any snow/mix it produces should remain west and north of our region – maybe a brief period of very light snow north central MA to southern NH. The cold front trailing the low will sweep through our region Sunday evening, and ahead of it will come some rain showers late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. The system exits later at night, and Monday will be a chilly, breezy, dry day as a new Canadian air mass arrives. Another quick-moving low pressure area will take shape and move northeastward to threaten our region with precipitation by Tuesday afternoon and night. The track of the low pressure area will determine its impact on our area. The majority of guidance indicates a storm system close enough to bring a variety of precipitation to the region, favoring rain at the coast and snow inland / higher elevation areas, although there is also some guidance that has been very consistent on bringing a flatter, less developed low pressure wave south of our area with a glancing blow of a little light snowfall. With this being a “day 5” forecast as of this update, I’m going to leave the door open to either of these outcomes being possible, and fine-tune as we go.

TODAY: Intervals of sun between many clouds. A passing snow shower possible, especially afternoon. Highs 38-45. Wind W 15-25 MPH, gusts 30+ MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a snow flurry early. Lows 23-30. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind W 5-15 MPH, diminishing late.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear evening. Increasing high clouds overnight. Lows 18-25. Wind calm.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely west to east by late-day. Highs 45-52. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 30-37. Wind shifting to W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 38-45. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Lows 22-29. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Overcast. Snow/mix/rain probable. Highs 32-39. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 3-7)

Overall pattern is set to feature near to below normal temperatures. Watching for a frontal passage December 4 and potential low pressure impact some time over the December 6-7 weekend.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 8-12)

Colder pattern continues. Difficult to time potential precipitation threats, but leaning toward the end of this time frame.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 27 – DECEMBER 1)

Happy Thanksgiving to all! The holiday today will feature blustery, chilly, but dry weather behind a cold front that went by the region late last night. Other than wind gusts playing havoc with some kicks and passes in some of the many high school football match-ups, and forcing spectators to dress for it, it’ll be quite a nice holiday for moving about outside. The gusty wind is doing its part, however, to transport the coldest air mass of the autumn so far into our region, and we’ll feel that for sure Friday and Saturday. Winds will be most notable on Friday while we have a strong pressure gradient between high pressure over the Great Lakes and a large storm in eastern Canada, and that day can also have a few passing snow showers as Great Lakes moisture combines with a cold pool of air aloft associated with an upper trough. Saturday, though colder than normal for the date, will become more tolerable due the wind dropping off as high pressure builds into our region and relaxes the pressure gradient. We’ll lose the snow flurry threat that day as the cold pool aloft departs and the air flow doesn’t allow the Great Lakes moisture to make it all the way to our region. This high pressure area will crest over the region Saturday night, then move off to the east as low pressure heads for the Great Lakes, eventually to travel down the St. Lawrence Valley during Sunday and Sunday night. A warm front passes by here early Sunday, followed by a cold front Sunday night. The warm front will generate snowfall that will occur north of our area – over northern New England. The cold front will generate rain showers that will pass through our region late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. This system is moving quickly enough so that it will have cleared the coastline in time for a breezy, chilly and dry start to December on Monday – similar to today’s weather.

TODAY (THANKSGIVING): Mostly sunny start, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 45-52 this morning, then lowering through the 40s this afternoon. Wind W increasing to 10-20 MPH with gusts 25+ MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Intervals of sun between many clouds. A passing snow shower possible, especially afternoon. Highs 38-45. Wind W 15-25 MPH, gusts 30+ MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a snow flurry early. Lows 23-30. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind W 5-15 MPH, diminishing late.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear evening. Increasing high clouds overnight. Lows 18-25. Wind calm.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely west to east by late-day. Highs 45-52. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 30-37. Wind shifting to W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 38-45. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 2-6)

Colder weather pattern. Watching a wave of low pressure with a snow/rain/mix threat later December 2 to early December 3. Leaning toward a flatter, faster system that can’t develop quickly in the upper set-up, therefore a glancing blow or even a miss, but this is not a high confidence outlook this far in advance. Another system from threatens some precipitation by the end of the period – doesn’t look significant.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 7-11)

Colder pattern continues. Watching systems with potential precipitation early period and late period. Neither of these presents as a major storm by all current indications, but either or both could bring the threat of some frozen precipitation.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 26-30)

November’s final five are what’s covered in this detailed forecast section today – a period of high scrutiny for weather as many plans that involve travel are packed into this period of time known basically as Thanksgiving Weekend. Today, the day before the holiday, is a big travel and pre-holiday errand day, and will be a mild one with a few rain showers around, but generally quite favorable for moving about. We’re in the warm sector between the warm front that generated last night’s rainfall, and a cold front that will bring a final round of showers this evening. This allow temps to elevate to above normal levels today. Behind the cold front comes a breezy, cooler, but dry day for Thanksgiving Day on Thursday. Other than some lingering muddy conditions on natural turn fields, high school football games will be played in generally favorable conditions, and there will be no significant weather issues for some scheduled road races and also for local / regional travel, other than an increase in the gusty breeze. Colder air will be moving in during the day, but the day overall will have near to slightly above normal temperatures, just with an upside down profile – going from mildest morning to colder afternoon. This sets up a couple blustery and cold days Friday and Saturday. Friday will be the windier of those two, though Saturday will be the slightly colder of the two. I can’t rule out a quick-passing snow flurry, especially Friday, with moisture making it all the way into the region from the Great Lakes, and with the help of a pool of cold air crossing the region on Friday. By Sunday, we’re back to a moderating trend but clouds move back in ahead of the next trough and frontal system, which may bring wet weather to the region before the day is out, if it moves in quickly enough.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a passing rain shower. Highs 57-64. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with an additional rain shower likely during the evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 38-45. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to W.

THURSDAY (THANKSGIVING): Sun and passing clouds. Highs 45-52 in the morning, then slowly falling. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Chance of a passing snow flurry. Highs 38-45. Wind W 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a snow flurry early. Lows 23-30. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 23-30. Wind W 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of rain late. Highs 45-52. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 1-5)

Frontal system goes by with early rain shower potential December 1, which will start mild then turn colder. Overall colder regime the balance of the first several days of month. We’ll have to watch a wave of low pressure expected to pass by to our south later December 2 to early December 3. If it’s close enough, we have a snow/mix/rain threat, but right now my leaning is that it will pass mostly offshore. Watch for another system from the west with a snow shower potential by the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 6-10)

Overall trend is for colder over milder here, but we’ll still not be far from a zone separating the cold front a much milder US Southeast, so we’ll have to watch for disturbances along that boundary that can get into our region, as well as disturbances from the west. Highest chance to see something here is around December 7, based on current medium range trends.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 25-29)

High pressure slid just to our south overnight, extending northward a bit, calming yesterday’s breeze, but during the night a shield of high to mid level cloudiness has overspread the sky and will continue to cover the sky today ahead of an approaching warm front. This front brings our region a period of rain tonight before passing through and putting us in the warm sector of low pressure crossing the Great Lakes Wednesday when scattered rain showers can occur. One final band of rain showers crosses the region Wednesday evening with the low’s strong cold front. Behind this comes a dry, chilly, air mass for Thanksgiving Day with a gusty breeze, and a continuation of colder, blustery weather Friday and Saturday (though Friday will be the winder of those 2 days). It’ll continue mainly dry but I can’t rule out a few stray passing snow flurries from the Great Lakes (with the help of a cold pool aloft), especially on Friday.

TODAY: Cloudy. Highs 46-53. Wind SE-S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Periods of rain. Areas of fog. Temperatures steady 46-53 evening then rising to 53-60 overnight. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog early. Chance of rain showers. Highs 57-64. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with an additional rain shower likely during the evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 38-45. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to W.

THURSDAY (THANKSGIVING): Sun and passing clouds. Highs 48-55 by midday, then slowly falling. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Chance of a passing snow flurry. Highs 38-45. Wind W 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a snow flurry early. Lows 23-30. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 37-44. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 30 – DECEMBER 4)

A trough and frontal system approaches on the final day of November with clouds returning and eventually a precipitation chance -likely rain but can began as a mix some areas. Rain shower chance early December 1 and again later December 2 with frontal systems crossing the region. Wave of low pressure may bring a precipitation threat late period.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 5-9)

We’ll watch for some unsettled weather (rain/mix/snow chances) while our area is near the border of warmer air associated a ridge of high pressure off the US Southeast Coast and a larger reservoir of cold air across the north central US and much of Canada. Much of this period does look dry, however, with variable temperatures.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 24-28)

It turns out our forecast is fairly straightforward, after all the noise has been filtered out, for Thanksgiving Week. Behind a weak disturbance that went by yesterday, we have a seasonably chilly, sun/cloud mix kind of day with a gusty breeze today behind departing low pressure. A weak high pressure area moves across there region later today and tonight then offshore Tuesday as the warm front extending from low pressure entering the Great Lakes moves our way. This front will bring increasing clouds and eventually a period of rain Tuesday evening. Wednesday, we find ourselves in the warm sector of this low with a rain shower chance, but also plenty of rain-free time. The cold front trailing the low which be heading into southeastern Canada passes by our region at night. This sets us up for a breezy, cooler, but dry Thanksgiving Day on Thursday. Colder air behind that low pressure system will continue to work in through Friday which will be a rather windy day, with a chance of a passing snow flurry as a weak trough moves through the region. So while we have changeable weather, we don’t really have any major impacts from it regarding travel before, during, and after Thanksgiving, and all of the holiday-related activities (football games, road races, dinner visits, shopping excursions).

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 43-50. Wind W 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear evening. Clouds return overnight. Lows 35-42. Wind calm evening, S up to 10 MPH overnight.

TUESDAY: Mainly cloudy. Highs 46-53. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Rain likely. Areas of fog. Temperatures steady 43-50 evening, then rising slowly overnight. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Areas of fog early. Highs 55-62. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely. Lows 40-47. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY (THANKSGIVING): Sun/cloud mix. Highs 48-55. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Chance of a passing snow flurry. Highs 38-45. Wind W 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 29 – DECEMBER 3)

The remainder of Thanksgiving Weekend looks generally dry with a sun/cloud mix Saturday November 29, below normal temps, and a gusty breeze. Sunday November 30 features increasing clouds but less wind as the next trough approaches. A brief warm-up, a sharp cold frontal passage with rain/snow shower chances, and a chill-down highlight the first few days of December with more detail to come for those days.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 4-8)

We’ll watch for some unsettled weather (rain/mix/snow chances) while our area is near the border of warmer air associated a ridge of high pressure off the US Southeast Coast and a larger reservoir of cold air across the north central US and much of Canada. It’s too soon to figure out any details with this set-up.

COMMENTARY

A reminder that a lot of guidance shifting is not unusual during transitional patterns. It’s something that a seasoned meteorologist is used to, and while it can be frustrating from the perspective of using the guidance as a tool, it’s also part of the experience of this science and can be used as a learning opportunity about patterns and about how current versions of various models handle things and display biases and shortcomings. Again I hate to continue to bring up non-meteorologist weather pages on social media, but they’ve made it very difficult to communicate properly during the last few weeks, and I hope when we do see such things or get asked about them, we are letting our friends know to take not of the difference between these pages that exist for hype, clicks, shares, etc., and the blogs and pages that exist with the aim of communicating the information properly. We cannot afford to lose the latter, along with our professionals in the field

On a different note, a reminder that I have posted the winter forecast and created snow contest pages for this coming winter. Each can be found in the menu at the top of the main blog page! The winter forecast was also posted as a regular blog post, like the daily forecast update, so there are two places to access it.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 23-27)

There are several weather systems to keep track of as we finish the weekend and head to Thanksgiving. Your Sunday will feature the return of some cloudiness and eventually a rain or snow shower opportunity as a weak clipper low pressure area dives southeastward via the Upper Great Lakes, crossing our region this evening. It’s a minor system – no significant impact is expected from any light precipitation that falls. However, if it precipitates hard enough to wet the ground and it can’t dry quickly enough, some icy patches can form overnight and early Monday as the sky clears out and temperatures fall below the freezing point in some areas. During the day Monday expect a sun/cloud mix but dry weather as an area of high pressure moves across the region. This high will then shift off to the northeast by Tuesday. During this time, low pressure enters the Great Lakes and its extending warm front will increase the cloudiness in our region and lead to a period of rain Tuesday night to very early Wednesday. During the day Wednesday, this area of rainfall moves off to the northeast but low level moisture means lots of clouds, areas of fog, and perhaps an additional passing rain shower. A more organized line of showers is expected to cross the region with a cold front Wednesday evening as the parent low exits the Great Lakes and moves across southeastern Canada. This sets us up for for a blustery, cool (but not too cold), and dry Thanksgiving Day with sun and passing clouds. I do expect dry conditions for morning road races and the many traditional high school football games that take place, but fields that are natural grass may still be wet from recent rainfall.

TODAY: Sun gives way to clouds. Scattered snow and rain showers mid afternoon on. Highs 42-49. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy in the evening with a rain or snow shower possible. Clearing overnight. Lows 30-37. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 46-53. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 23-30. Wind calm.

TUESDAY: Clouding over. Chance of rain late, especially western areas. Highs 43-50. Wind calm then SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Rain likely. Areas of fog. Temperatures steady 43-50 evening, may rise slightly overnight. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Areas of fog early. Highs 55-62. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows 40-47. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY (THANKSGIVING): Sun/cloud mix. Highs 48-55. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 28 – DECEMBER 2)

A colder west to northwest air flow from the day after Thanksgiving – aka Black Friday – and Saturday November 29 – aka my daughter’s birthday. 😉 I’m looking for mainly dry weather but a disturbance moving through can cause a few snow flurries on Saturday. Another small low pressure area approaches on the final day of November and may bring some light snow/mix/rain for parts of the region. There are indications of a quick building ridge of high pressure over the southeastern US that would provide a warmer spike of air to arrive a just in time for the start of December, but a frontal boundary can be nearby as soon as December 2 introducing the chance of some wet weather. Confidence is low on this part of the forecast as there are a lot of variables to consider.

The front that brings Wednesday’s showers should clear the coast and be offshore pre-dawn Thanksgiving, which looks dry with a sun/cloud mix and high temps in the 45-55 range regionwide along with a moderate westerly breeze. We then experience a dry stretch with a colder trend Friday 11/28 and Saturday 11/29 – maybe a passing snow flurry from a disturbance moving through at some point but no issues for travel. High pressure slides to our south to end November and start December with fair weather and a milder trend.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 3-7)

Storm track into Great Lakes – up and down temperature pattern with a couple episodes of unsettled weather. A lot more refinining and detailing will be needed!