C-19 Chat Post – March 7 2021

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 6-10)

The next 5 days will feature dry weather, but during this period we will undergo a shift in the weather pattern. The upper level low pressure area and its attendant core of arctic air which brought us a bitter blast earlier this week before moving away to allow a one-day warm-up on Wednesday did a loop back into eastern Canada as a larger low pressure system and has been sitting there for a couple days, pumping more cold and wind into the region. This system is going to pull away at a snail’s pace during this weekend, which will still be cold, but we will see an abatement of the wind with time. When we get to Monday with a westerly air flow, it will just be more of a “normal” March chill. Tuesday may end up a little warmer but it may be a modest warm-up initially as a little trough swings through and flips the wind back to the northwest for a while. Finally, Wednesday will be the day that high pressure has made its way to the Mid Atlantic Coast and extending offshore, and putting our region into a much milder southwesterly air flow – and you’ll feel it. But there is a caveat. Where that air travels over water first, the warm up will not be nearly as pronounced. Also, if the wind flow is not strong enough, even east-facing shores could see the development of a sea breeze on Wednesday afternoon which would keep them significantly cooler. We will see how that goes…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 12-19. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 20-27. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 53-60 except cooler South Coast and possibly turning cooler East Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, possible sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 11-15)

March 11 should be the mildest day of next week with a decent southwesterly air flow. Transition follows, but timing of arrival of cold air from north is questionable – sometime during March 12 as it stands now. This will determine how mild that day can get, but it will likely turn unsettled March 12-13 during this transition before high pressure moves in later in the period with dry but chilly weather. Not a high confidence forecast.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 16-20)

Cold Canada, warm US Southeast, and we will be in between the two, in the battle zone, probably on the colder side of it. This results in a potential for wintry precipitation at some point during this period.

C-19 Chat Post – March 6 2021

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 5-9)

A large low pressure area in eastern Canada continues its influence on our weather today and through the weekend keeping it cold, dry, and breezy, with windiest weather today and a gradual abatement of wind during the weekend. We’ll also see a lot of cloudiness in the low’s circulation over our sky today, before sunshine become dominant for a good part of the weekend. When we get to early next week, a change takes place. The low in eastern Canada pulls away, and high pressure which had been to our west sinks to the south, taking up residence along the Mid Atlantic Coast. This will result in a notable temperature moderation here with continued dry weather.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 13-20. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 12-19. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 20-27. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 10-14)

High pressure over the Middle Atlantic States extending offshore as well will provide us with a short-lived but significant warm-up for a couple to a few days during the middle of next week. The wild card will be how soon does a cold front from Canada bring us back to reality? Sometime March 12 is my current estimate. After that we turn colder and have to eye the potential for some unsettled weather as well in the March 12-14 time frame.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 15-19)

A blocking pattern should keep us on the cooler to colder side once again, but being near a boundary between a cold Canada and northeastern US and much warmer air to the south increases the chances for unsettled weather, which may include additional opportunities for some frozen precipitation as we move through the final days of the astronomical winter season…

C-19 Chat Post – March 5 2021

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 4-8)

Hope your enjoyed your one-day reprieve from the cold because it’s coming back for the rest of this week, though not in as much force as previously, and definitely not with the same magnitude of wind, although it will be breezy over the next few days as low pressure does a long, slow loop across eastern Canada and high pressure sits off to the west. This pattern will also continue to protect the region from what could have been a storm threat from the south around the weekend. You will notice a change as early as the conclusion of the weekend, marking a pulling away of the low pressure area and the high center sinking off to the southeast, so by the time we get to the start of next week on Monday, it will feel much more pleasant again.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 16-23. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 20-27. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 9-13)

High pressure shifts to the Middle Atlantic and before any cold fronts can sneak down from Canada we warm to above normal for a couple of days to start this period, before that cold air does make a come-back (timing unknown). Should remain generally dry through the period, however.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 14-18)

A blocking pattern should keep us on the cooler to colder side once again, but being near a boundary between a cold Canada and northeastern US and much warmer air to the south increases the chances for unsettled weather, which may include additional opportunities for some frozen precipitation. Winter is not over yet…

C-19 Chat Post – March 4 2021

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 3-7)

A warm front crosses the region this morning, made evident by some cloudiness, but the sun returns to areas that are clouded over by later this morning and by this afternoon, temperatures that are some 15 to 20 degrees warmer than yesterday, along with much less wind, will feel quite mild in comparison to the mid winter feel of just 24 hours prior. Don’t get used to the brief warm up though, because the cold core that came down across the area on Tuesday is the result of a little lobe of Polar Vortex, which, because of an evolving blocking pattern, is not going to just exit cleanly through the Canadian Maritime Provinces, but do a loop there, and move back to the west before drifting southward over the northeastern US once again. The leading edge of this at the surface will be a cold front that drops southward through the region tonight. However, since it is March and the sun angle is what it is, this lobe of cold will be modified, so while we will fall to below normal in the temperature department again later this week and through the weekend, it will not be to the degree (no pun intended) of what just left us. The other purpose this pattern and resultant low pressure circulation will do is protect the Northeast from any further visits from low pressure to the south, once a medium range threat for the end of this week, and now apparently that no longer. We will have a couple troughs coming through the region around the upper level low pressure circulation, and this will be responsible for some diurnal cloud development Thursday especially with the aid of the hills & mountains to the north and west, and some of this cloud cover may migrate southeastward into the WHW forecast area if it is not consumed by the dry air in place. On Friday, a little sharper trough may help induce a few snow flurries from another round of diurnal clouds, but these should be more scattered in nature. For the weekend, a fairly similar set-up to Thursday-Friday is expected, with breezy conditions and below normal temperatures. So our one-day “warm-up” today will be followed by a March chill which will last right through the first weekend of the month.

TODAY: Variably cloudy through mid morning. Mostly sunny thereafter. Highs 42-49. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

THURSDAY: Sunny morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 18-25 Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow flurries. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 16-23. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 8-12)

Low pressure in eastern Canada departs and high pressure sinks to the south of New England providing additional mostly dry weather but this time with a warming trend pushing temperatures to above normal levels. The question to answer is when this warm-up will come to an end via a cold front from the north as colder air re-builds in Canada. That could happen as early as March 11 or 12 along with some unsettled weather by then, but medium range guidance disagrees on this so it will be something to monitor. We will, however, enjoy a preview of spring for at least a few days.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 13-17)

A reorganizing pattern will feature a developing block which will turn our area colder again and eventually provide the opportunity for unsettled weather as well as we head into the final days of astronomical winter.

C-19 Chat Post – March 3 2021

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 2-6)

It’s a dry forecast, with temperature changes to be the events of note during this 5-day period. Today starts with us in the midst of a brief but brutal shot of arctic air with wind, but a slight easing of the wind and the higher angle of the sun in early March will make this afternoon more tolerable than it would have been had this taken place back in January. We’ll see plenty of sunshine too, with only a few passing fair weather clouds trying to form and shredded by the wind. A warm front will cross the region tonight from west to east with some cloudiness, but light snowfall with it will stay north of the region. Wednesday will be the one “warmer” day, getting into the 40s across the region before a cold front slips through from the north at night and turns us colder again for the balance of the week (Thursday-Saturday). Some diurnal cloudiness may limit the sun later Thursday and I’m still expecting some passing clouds and maybe a brief snow flurry on Friday as a pool of cold air moves overhead. Been watching Saturday as the beginning of a period of opportunity for a storm threat, but at this time, that day looks dry as well as we’ll have a large low pressure area in the Canadian Maritimes and high pressure to the west keeping this area protected from any storminess to the south.

TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 25-32. Wind NW 15-30 MPH with higher gusts. Wind chill often below 15.

TONIGHT: Clear evening. Increasing clouds overnight. Lows 13-20 evening, rising into the 20s overnight. Wind NW 5-15 MPH evening, shifting to W overnight.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 42-49. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly to mostly cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly to partly cloudy. Lows 18-25 Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow flurries. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 7-11)

A weak trough over the region may allow a few snow showers on March 7 but mainly dry weather is expected for most of this period. Right now it looks like any storminess to the south early in the period won’t be able to get this far north as the upper level pattern in place at the end of the first 5 days of the forecast period will continue to protect the region, but still should keep an eye out as things like this have not quite materialized as guidance suggested in the past. We may see a short-lived warm-up later in the period

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 12-16)

Blocking pattern. A couple of opportunities for unsettled weather which may include frozen precipitation. Temperatures near to below normal.

C-19 Chat Post – March 2 2021

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 1-5)

Meteorological Spring begins today, but if the weather could sing, it might be singing “Manic Monday” today, the iconic tune written by Prince but made famous in the 1980s by The Bangles. We’re going to see a few quick changes in the weather over the span of today, which will end vastly different than it starts. We start out with periods of rain and areas of fog this morning as a wave of low pressure moves by. This will end toward midday as the low moves quickly away to the east northeast, and then we’ll have a round of scattered rain showers quickly cross the region as cold front number one moves through. It will dry out quickly behind this front, and although drier air will rid us of any lingering fog and lower clouds, we may hold onto a higher level cloud cover, the back edge of which may take longer to move across the sky. This potentially sets up a nice sunset situation at least for eastern areas, so sunset photographers be on stand-by! Temperatures this afternoon will be fairly steady as an incoming cooler air mass is balanced somewhat by the higher sun angle. And then the second cold front of the day, an arctic boundary, charges across the region from northwest to southeast this evening, accompanied by snow showers and snow squalls for parts of the region, which could quickly cause untreated surfaces to become slippery due to rapid though minor accumulation. This front will be followed by a sharp temperature drop later at night, along with some pretty ferocious wind and resultant wind chill lasting right into and through most of the day Tuesday, which will feel cold even by January standards, let alone early March. The fact that it is early March will help out though because of the higher sun angle, which will take the edge off the cold just a little bit. Luckily, the cold blast will be very short-lived, just a one-day thing, as a warm front will cross the area from west to east Tuesday night and early Wednesday. This front may have a band of light snow with it but that should stay to the north with just some clouds moving across the southeastern New England sky. It will usher in much milder air for Wednesday, and while it will be breezy that day we won’t see anything like the wind of the previous day. But don’t get used to that milder air either, for yet another cold front will drop southeastward from Canada through New England by early Thursday, returning colder air to the region for that day and Friday as well. An upper level low pressure trough crossing the region will probably trigger quite a few diurnal clouds Thursday afternoon, and this energy will still be over the region Friday which could cause additional passing clouds and possibly a few snow flurries.

TODAY: Overcast with areas of fog and periods of rain into late morning. Mostly cloudy with additional rain showers west to east early afternoon. Slow clearing from the west mid to late afternoon. Highs 45-52 by midday, then steady temperature first part of afternoon and falling slowly later. Wind SE 5-15 MPH with gusts above 20 MPH over Cape Cod and the South Coast region early to mid morning and variable up to 10 MPH elsewhere through mid morning, SW 5-15 MPH by midday then shifting to W and increasing to 10-20 MPH from west to east early to mid afternoon with higher gusts possible by late in the day.

THIS EVENING: Clearing early, then passing clouds with potential snow showers and snow squalls which may cause quick coating to 1/2 inch accumulation. Temperatures fall 30s through 20s. Wind W shifting to NW 15-25 MPH with gusts 35-45 MPH. Wind chill falling below 10.

OVERNIGHT: Clearing. Lows 6-13. Wind NW 15-30 MPH, gusts 35-50 MPH. Wind chill falling well below zero.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 25-32. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill often below 15.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear evening. Increasing clouds overnight. Lows 13-20 evening, rising into the 20s overnight. Wind NW 5-15 MPH evening, shifting to W overnight.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 41-48. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly to mostly cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly to partly cloudy. Lows 18-25 Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow flurries. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 6-10)

Temperatures near to below normal. Watching for a potential winter weather event during the March 6-8 time frame but the trend has been to keep development further south. I don’t completely trust this solution just yet. We’ll be watching the evolution of the pattern into a more blocking set-up (more later).

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 11-15)

Blocking pattern. A couple of opportunities for unsettled weather which may include frozen precipitation. Temperatures near to below normal.

C-19 Chat Post – March 1 2021

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 28 – MARCH 4)

On this final day of February 2021 we will be dealing with a minor low pressure system, the second of two to effect the region this weekend. However, unlike Saturday’s which started as snow early in the day in part of the region, followed by rain for most of the region through the day, this system will struggle to do much, putting some rain across the South Coast during the afternoon and taking until tonight to deliver some light rainfall to the rest of the region. The air will be too mild to support any snowfall. After this relatively minor system pulls away in the early hours of Monday, a final band of showers may visit the region during the morning as cold front number 1 of 2 passes by. The air will not be all that cold behind this first cold front, so that Monday itself will be fairly pleasant, temperature-wise, although there will be a gusty breeze. It is when the second cold front, an arctic boundary, arrives from west to east during the evening that the bottom will fall out and the temperature will plunge. The arrival of this air mass may be marked by some snow showers and snow squalls during Monday evening. Snow squalls can quickly drop visibility to near zero with heavy snow, which can also quickly coat the ground and make for slippery travel, even for a while after they have departed. Our arctic air, which will make the second day of March on Tuesday feel more likely the second day of January, will only be around for one day. By Wednesday we’ll see a significant temperature rebound as milder air arrives from the west. However, during Thursday another cold front, this one not quite as strong, will slide through the region from north to south and introduce somewhat colder air once again.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Some afternoon rain South Coast. Highs 45-52. Wind W under 10 MPH shifting to SE.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of light rain. Areas of fog. Lows 38-45. Wind variable up to 10 MPH..

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the morning. Partly sunny in the afternoon. Highs 45-52 by early afternoon then turning cooler by late-day. Wind variable to SW 5-15 MPH shifting to W 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Snow showers/squalls possible. Lows 5-12. Wind W 15-25 MPH with higher gusts shifting to NW. Wind chill falling below 0.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 25-32. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill often below 15.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 13-20 evening, rising into the 20s overnight. Wind NW 5-15 MPH evening, shifting to W overnight.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 33-40. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 5-9)

Temperatures near to below normal. Watching for a potential winter weather event during the March 6-8 time frame. The beginning and end of this period should be fair.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 10-14)

Evolving blocking pattern. A couple of opportunities for unsettled weather. Temperatures near to below normal.

C-19 Chat Post – February 28 2021