7:30AM
DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 21-25)
So now it’s spring. And spring has a reputation around here. Yes, there can be nice days, but there are many not-so-nice days, and sometimes a whole lot of them, depending on the particular weather pattern. I’m not going to speculate about spring beyond the next 5 days right in this space right now, but what I will say is these 5 days will show you a nice sample platter of the variety of both March and spring in New England. It starts with an approaching cold front today but this front will never quite make it here, at least as it is. Since we have now figured out that the low pressure area about to come up the coast is not the one that some of the guidance was originally forecasting to do it, as that is traveling hundreds of miles southeast of the region at this time, but an inverted trough that formed near the Southeast Coast and hung around long enough for some upper level support to come along and ignite it. And while this won’t be a major storm system as it continues to develop and pass over the region tonight and Friday, once it gets beyond our region, it will develop into a pretty strong storm, expanding in coverage, so the slug of rain it brings to us tonight in its formative stages won’t be around long, but once it gets far enough away and we get into the expanding wind field on the back side, we will see colder air, some rain to snow showers, and more importantly some decent wind Friday night through Saturday. The bluster of March will be in full force on Saturday. But how quickly things can turn around, and they will, when that storm pulls far enough away and high pressure slides to the southwest of New England, a milder westerly air flow will arrive and Sunday will be a nice spring day, especially by March standards. But alas, did you think that was going to hang around? Well it may, into at least part of Monday, and that will depend on the speed of another cold front dropping south southeastward out of Canada, which will return much colder air to the region again by late Monday at the latest. Sometimes these fronts end up faster than initial guidance tries to have you believe, so the vague wording below will indicate my uncertainty here. Forecast details…
TODAY: Partly sunny morning. Mostly cloudy afternoon. Highs 47-54, coolest coast. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Overcast. Rain arriving south to north, may be heavy for a while. Slight risk of thunder. Lows 40-47. Wind E 10-20 MPH, a few higher gusts along the coast where minor flooding is possible.
FRIDAY: Overcast with areas of fog morning as rain tapers to isolated rain showers and patchy drizzle. Mostly cloudy afternoon with a risk of a passing rain shower. Temperatures steady 40-47. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers evening. Scattered to general snow showers overnight with minor accumulation possible. Lows 30-37. Wind W increasing to 10-20 MPH then shifting to NW with gusts 30-40 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with snow showers likely morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, gusts 30-45 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-35 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 50-57. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
MONDAY: Clouding over. Risk of a period of rain that may end as snow. Highs 48-55 but a quick temperature drop is possible later. Wind W 10-20 MPH eventually shifting to N.
DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 26-30)
More of the March and spring variety will be on display, especially in the temperature department. Low pressure should pass south of the region, kept there by a cold Canadian high pressure area to start the period, with temperatures starting out below to much below normal. This will be followed by a warming trend which may see the end of the period much warmer than normal with high pressure along the East Coast and a strong southwesterly air flow. It may be that some areas that are stuck in the 30s on March 26 are above 70 by March 30.
DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 31-APRIL 4)
A transition back to cooler weather to end March and start April, probably with a couple bouts of unsettled weather as well.