DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 18-22)

It’s been a “slow improvement” weekend as we were expecting, and today will definitely be better than yesterday, but don’t expect full sunshine. With cold air aloft and yet another disturbance to pass by, we’ll still see lots of clouds at times, and possibly another passing rain shower or two. But overall, not a bad mid April day in comparison to the last couple of days. Still on track for the early-week warming but there are a couple of forecast wrinkles to deal with today. First, a small but vigorous disturbance which I hadn’t sniffed out as of yesterday’s update reveals itself to be a shower and thunderstorm threat late Monday afternoon or early Monday evening as it works on some moisture and instability in the region. This small feature will be moving fairly quickly eastward and has the ability to trigger a shower or storm in a few locations especially near and south of I-90, favoring eastern CT, RI, and adjacent southern MA, late in the day Monday. And then a low pressure area moving rapidly eastward across southeastern Canada will send a cold front toward the region Tuesday. It will still be mild ahead of this front, but I’m not quite sure yet how far east that boundary comes. So the mild day may be replaced by a chilly evening or nighttime for areas at least north and west of Boston. We’ll have to monitor that front. I do think that any rain shower activity with that initial front will stay to the north of us. Stronger low pressure trailing this one moves eastward and its center will also pass north of us by Wednesday evening, but this time there will be more moisture available, so I’m expecting a decent round of rain showers sometime Wednesday between the middle of the day and the evening. This day will still be mild ahead of the cold front, but a sharp temperature drop is likely to occur with the passage of that front, setting us up for a blustery and chilly Earth Day on Thursday, possibly with lots of cloudiness on the back side of what will then be pretty strong low pressure in eastern Canada. We may even see some scattered rain and/or snow showers on that day…

TODAY: Variably cloudy – times with more sun, times with more cloudiness. Chance of a passing rain shower but dry conditions most areas most of day. Highs 53-60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. A late day shower or thunderstorm possible mainly southwest of Boston (eastern CT, RI, south central MA most likely locations). Highs 54-61 South Coast, 61-68 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm early evening mainly southwest and south of Boston. Lows 45-52. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 57-64 South Coast region, 65-72 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 41-48 northwest of Boston, 49-54 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH may shift to NW north and west of Boston.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Rain showers arriving from west to east during the day. Highs 61-68 except cooler South Coast. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Rain showers move out, partial clearing follows. Lows 32-39. Wind NW 15-25 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny then mostly cloudy. A chance of rain and/or snow showers. Highs 41-48. Wind NW 15-25 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 23-27)

A zonal (west to east moving) weather pattern is expected to be dominant, but with the mean trough position being in eastern Canada and the Great Lakes to northeastern US with the tendency for temperatures below normal. Best chance of wet weather comes from a disturbance about April 24.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 28 – MAY 2)

The idea is for a similar pattern to continue, mostly west to east flow, but we do have to watch for rapid evolution of blocking pattern at any time. For now, overall idea is below normal temperatures and drier than average. Added pattern volatility potential from the interaction of a former western Pacific typhoon as its post-tropical remains interact with the jet stream heading into North America.

C-19 Chat Post – April 18 2021

COMMENTARY

My brother was a mixture of frustrated and amused when relaying the story to my mother yesterday, who then relayed it to me. What story? Oh, it’s about something that happens far too often. In this case it was a couple of Boston sports radio hosts having basically an on air melt-down. Did the Bruins lose a game they should have won? No. Did the Red Sox lose one game after a nine game winning streak? No. We all know that would be enough to cause a freak-out in sports radio hosts, but no, that was not it. Did they disagree with a move made by the Patriots? No. Do they think we need more coverage of the World Ping Pong championships? That would be cool, in my opinion, but no, it was not that. In fact, it had nothing at all to do with sports. Then what on earth were they going nuts about? It wasn’t anything really on earth, but what was falling TO earth, from the sky, or more specifically, from the clouds. Snow. In April. Wait, WHAT? SNOW? IN APRIL? How can that be?! It’s SPRINGTIME. It doesn’t snow in the spring here! I mean it’s supposed to be sunny and warm day after day after day with multitudes of flowers, chirping birds, and a gentle breeze that just makes you want to grab a picnic blanket and spread it out in the field. (Just remember to check for ticks after.) I didn’t hear it myself, but the sports radio host overreaction was common across our area yesterday. It was snowing, in mid April, in New England – SOUTHERN New England even! I mean that’s never happened in April before, has it? Not if you don’t count last year’s minor snowfall over interior southern New England on the SAME date last year, followed immediately by a snowfall ranging from about 1 to 6 inches on April 17 & 18, yup, LAST YEAR too. And as long as you don’t count the multitudes of times it’s snowed in Aprils previous, maybe because it’s actually kind of a normal thing here in the northeastern US. But how does that seem to be a forgotten thing by so many year after year after year? I’ve never understood it, nor will I. Even Boston’s Logan Airport, where “official” records for the city are gathered, sitting right out there in the water, averages 1.9 inch of snow in April, nearly 2 inches. Now this doesn’t mean nearly 2 inches of snow falls there every April. There are plenty of Aprils that this location does not see any measurable snowfall. However, they have seen measurable in 6 out of the last 9 Aprils. A little stat searching and logic will tell you that the average is influenced by a couple of stand-out April events during the 30 year period used to calculate the average, most obviously their dumping of 25.4 inches on April 1-2 1997 during the “April Fools Blizzard”, and a significant storm of 6.9 inches during a snowy April in 1996. But even without these, the fact that 2/3 of the time in the last 9 years they have had measurable snow in the month of April at the airport should tell you that April snow is NOT uncommon at all. Obviously it’s not as common as snowfall in January or February, or even March, but let’s be realistic here, those are winter months. Of course it’s going to snow more frequently. It just needs to be understood that because we change seasons to spring, it doesn’t mean that snow suddenly can’t exist anymore. And most of the time in the city (especially at the airport) they are minor events. In case you are wondering if Boston has seen any other major snowstorms besides the 2 mentioned above, they have. On April 6-7 1893, they saw 7.9 inches, on April 9-10 1917, 9.1 inches fell, and a remarkable “fluffy” snowstorm of 13.3 inches occurred on April 6-7 1982, with temperatures never getting above the 20s during and for about 24 hours after the event. So yes, the “big” April ones may be somewhat rare, but snow in April is not rare at all. So let’s take this somewhere else now. My journey through social media and my in-person day yesterday was punctuated with dozens of declarations of anger, disbelief, and borderline despair, about snow. In April. Wait what?! SNOW? Ok I won’t go through that again – you get the gist of it all by now. I’m not telling anybody that they have to enjoy snow. We all have our likes and dislikes, even about things we have absolutely no control over, like weather. I realize I am a bit of an odd duck because I don’t have any weather I dislike. But that aside, let’s take a look at some positives about this latest round of “winter in spring” a.k.a. April snow. I realize that as much as 6 to 11 inches fell in the highest elevations of central Massachusetts and nearby New Hampshire, and that definitely required some removal (shoveling, plowing, etc.), but we were lucky here since trees are not leafed out yet, so while some of the older trees & their limbs did suffer some damage, we avoided widespread damage and resultant power outages. For the vast majority of the region, including metro areas of Boston & Providence, it was a snowfall that would quickly remove itself after falling, as the combination of warmer ground and higher sun angle (even through the clouds) would help the melting process. What else good? Plenty… Temperatures stayed above freezing overnight even though rain & some additional mix/snow fell, so we did not have to deal with a freeze-up. Hey, that’s a plus! And you may or may not have heard me mention that much of the area is running a 4 to 6 inch precipitation deficit just since the start of 2021, and that abnormally dry to moderate drought conditions were covering pretty much all of New England. This storm system delivered generally 1 to 2 1/2 inches of beneficial total precipitation, maybe not enough to wipe out the deficit, but certainly taking a nice bite out of it. The portion that fell as snow ends up even more beneficial. As it melts into the unfrozen ground it fell on, it’s nicely absorbed, effectively acting as a longer lasting beneficial rainfall. Snow is also somewhat of a stimulant for new blooms on trees and in gardens, and will give the trees a boost for leaf out. As somebody who grew up with allergies, I know there’s a down side to this time of year: tree pollen. That’s inevitable, and just something we have to deal with. But wait, as a bonus for getting through this entire commentary, I remind you that yesterday’s rain and snow cleansed the air of pollen! So that will give allergy sufferers a break too, at least for a day and a half. But that’s better than no break at all, isn’t it? Enjoy the weekend! Stay safe!

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 17-21)

Our April storm that brought rain & snow to the region yesterday is still swirling about offshore to the east of New England this morning, and will take its time moving away from the region during this weekend. And while today will still be wet at times with rain showers and drizzle spiraling back at us from the offshore low, we will see improvement for Sunday. Although as previously mentioned we still have a bit of a disturbance to come through, so don’t expect complete clearing and we will still carry the chance of a passing shower. So not the best weekend, but certainly not the worst. Looking for a warm-up? It’s coming for the beginning of the week when we get into a southwesterly air flow aloft. First, a warm front has to sneak through the region, and it will do so early Monday with some cloudiness, though I think any rain associated with the front should stay to the north. Once that gets by it’s going to be quite nice right through Tuesday. There are locations that received enough snow to shovel yesterday that may break 70 degrees on Tuesday. Once again, that’s spring in New England. And staying on that topic, you know not to get used to that warm up, right? Good! Because a strong cold front is going to approach and cross the region Wednesday, bringing our next chance of wet weather in the form of rain showers, maybe even a thunderstorm risk. And while the day is likely to be mild, depending on the front’s timing, it may be feeling quite a bit colder by that night…

TODAY: Cloudy morning with occasional drizzle and some rain showers, especially NH Seacoast and eastern MA. Mostly cloudy afternoon with a passing rain shower possible. Highs 45-52. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 37-44. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of a passing rain shower. Highs 55-62. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Lots of clouds morning. More sun afternoon. Highs 56-63. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 42-49. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 57-64 South Coast region, 65-72 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 46-53. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Rain showers arriving from west to east during the day. Highs 60-67. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 22-26)

Windy, colder for Earth Day April 22 and a disturbance may bring rain and/or snow showers. Cool, less windy, but dry April 23. Low pressure brings a rain chance at mid period followed by drying but cooler again late period.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 27 – MAY 1)

For now looking at a west to east (zonal) flow pattern with a tendency for a trough in the Northeast and keeping us on the cooler but mostly dry side. However some added pattern volatility may come from the interaction of a powerful Western Pacific typhoon as it re-curves and enters the northern hemisphere jet stream. For the record, this is not unusual – it just doesn’t happen all that frequently.

C-19 Chat Post – April 17 2021

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 16-20)

Our first significant storm in a while is in progress, and despite the fact that snow grabbed the headlines in most media, even though it is fairly confined to expected areas and seems to be following expecting accumulations, the biggest story with this system is the beneficial precipitation it is bringing, since essentially all of southeastern New England had been categorized in abnormally dry to moderate drought conditions as of the last update. So this will knock that back significantly, though we still need more precipitation to further deplete the deficit. We’ll see how that goes as we move into later April. But for now, it’s this system we have to deal with. And today, low pressure will do a cyclonic loop right over southeastern New England as it is captured by upper level low pressure tracking slowly eastward across there region. The stacked system, which you can visualize as an atmospheric un-stretched slinky, will then drift away tonight and Saturday. It’ll take a good amount of time for it to pull its moisture out of here, and even longer for us to be rid of its cloudiness, but it will happen eventually. Sunday, we’ll be in a westerly flow of slightly milder and mostly dry air, but a weak disturbance will still bring some cloudiness and a slight rain shower chance. For now I’m keeping that shower chance out of Monday’s forecast, a day which will be milder still. And finally the warmest day of the next five will be Tuesday, when we’re in a southwesterly air flow ahead of an approach trough, a day that I think will be dry as the next frontal system and associated moisture will still be far enough west to not impact this area.

TODAY: Cloudy with snow/mix inland areas especially higher elevations, rain most coastal areas possibly mixing with or turning to wet snow at times, tapering to snow/rain showers and areas of drizzle. Total snowfall accumulation for the event expected to be 3-6 inches in highest elevations of southwestern NH to around the MA border, 1-3 inches on mainly unpaved surfaces mostly west of to around I-495, and slushy coatings to an inch possible as far east as the I-95 region mostly from I-90 northward. Highs 38-45. Wind E to NE 15-25 MPH, strongest coast with gusts 30-40 MPH possible.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with rain showers and areas of drizzle. Temperatures steady 38-45. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, especially coastal areas.

SATURDAY: Cloudy start with lingering rain showers and/or drizzle eastern coastal areas, then mostly cloudy to partly sunny with a slight chance of a passing light rain shower. Highs 45-52. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts possible.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 37-44. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of a passing rain shower. Highs 55-62. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 56-63. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 42-49. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 56-63 South Coast region, 64-71 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 21-25)

A strong cold front is expected to move across the region from west to east April 21 which will itself be mild with rain showers, followed by much cooler but dry weather April 22-23. Moderating temperatures but rain chances go up again later in the period based on expecting timing of the next area of low pressure from the west in what will be a more zonal (west to east flow) pattern.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 26-30)

Continuing a zonal pattern idea but with a mean trough in eastern Canada and the northeastern US opening the door for some additional shots of chilly air. Overall pattern may trend drier again.

C-19 Chat Post – April 16 2021

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 15-19)

All week we’ve been eyeing the possibility of some mid April snowflakes. Nothing new for us at this time of year. In fact, just last year on April 17-18 there was a storm system that produced measurable snow right to the coast and a general 1-3 inches across much of eastern MA and 3-6 inches in higher elevations of RI and central MA. These systems happen. They are not easy to forecast since quite often the rain vs. snow can be and often is even more needle-threading than a winter system to nail down in terms of a forecast. But I have not over analyzed this one. Here’s my best shot. In general, we will be seeing low pressure moving eastward off the northern Middle Atlantic Coast later today and intensifying as it is captured by its upper low pressure partner pulling it northeastward and making it do a bit of a cyclone loop. This system will be at its maximum intensity as it is making its closest pass. The various computer guidance, as is typical, display some differences but in general most of them bring the low center right in over southeastern New England while it does its loop. One model (the NAM) has been forecasting this loop to be a little further southeast, offshore or barely to Cape Cod, on its last couple runs, and the result has been its snowfall forecast has been to bring the rain/snow line further east, producing more snow into eastern MA than is depicted by other guidance. A springtime setup like this can be one that produces substantial amounts of snowfall in higher elevation while just a few miles away you see all rain. Snowfall can occur in lower elevations if you keep the warmest air away, which could happen with a low center a little further offshore. So you see the forecasting dilemma. Believe the outlier model that has pretty much no support from any other model, or lean toward the solution shown by pretty much all other available guidance? For now, this forecast will look similar to yesterday’s with added detail since the event starts soon. I’m not biting on the dramatic solution the NAM offers. But as there have been times that it, as an outlier, has been correct, it’s obviously wise to monitor closely. Does it do this again on its next run? Does it come back to the other models’ ideas? Or do they join it? It plays out like a meteorological soap opera! Stay tuned……….. Whatever happens with precipitation details, the heaviest of it ends Friday morning and as the low matures (“fills”, or “stacks”, basically becoming vertical low pressure tube underneath and with its upper low), it will start to pull away but will still be close enough to keep Friday overcast with occasional rain/mix/snow eventually tapering to drizzle before ending. This process may take until early Saturday to be completed, and with the low still offshore, Saturday will be day with a gusty breeze and a fair amount of cloudiness before enough dry air works in for more sun later. The Sunday-Monday outlook is still OK, but high pressure’s center is likely to be a little further southwest, which allows it to turn milder, but also leaves the door open for a couple low pressure troughs to move along in a more zonal (west to east) flow, so we would have at least some cloudiness around at times, and possibly a couple shower chances as these disturbances pass by.

TODAY: Clouding over. Rain arriving in central MA & RI mid to late afternoon. Highs 50-57, coolest coast. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Rain, possibly heavy at times, changing to snow in higher elevations of southwestern NH, central MA, and mixing with or changing to snow in higher elevations of northern RI where some accumulation is possible. Rain may mix with or change to snow eastward toward the I-95 belt toward dawn. Lows 34-41. Wind E 5-15 MPH but gusting over 20 MPH coastal areas.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with snow/mix inland areas, rain/mix coastal areas, tapering to snow/rain showers and areas of drizzle. Total snowfall accumulation for the event expected to be 3-6 inches in highest elevations of southwestern NH to around the MA border, 1-3 inches on mainly unpaved surfaces to about I-495 and mostly near and north of I-90, and less than 1 inch as far east as the I-95 region from I-90 northward. Highs 38-45. Wind E to NE 15-25 MPH, strongest coast with gusts 30-40 MPH possible.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with rain showers and areas of drizzle. Temperatures steady 38-45. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, especially coastal areas.

SATURDAY: Cloudy start with lingering rain showers and/or drizzle eastern coastal areas, then mostly cloudy to partly sunny with a slight chance of a passing light rain shower. Highs 45-52. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts possible.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 37-44. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of a passing rain shower. Highs 55-62. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 56-63. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 20-24)

A shot of warmer air to start the period but an approaching trough from the west likely means a chance of rain showers to go along with that. Cooler air follows that as the shower threat gives way to fair weather for the middle of the period. Approaching low pressure may bring a rain chance late period.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 25-29)

Unsettled weather threats most likely early and again late in this period with fair weather in between. Temperatures near to possibly below normal.

C-19 Chat Post – April 15 2021

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 14-18)

A weak area of high pressure provides a decent mid April day today before things go downhill. However, this downhill slide provides us with the best chance for widespread beneficial precipitation for a while, and we need that. It also brings the chance of some very late season (nearly post season) snowflakes for some areas. It all takes place as low pressure moving eastward from the Midwest redevelops south of New England Thursday night into Friday and matures rapidly. The upper level low pressure system associated with this system will contain plenty of cold air aloft and will be moving right across our area. This is a springtime set-up in which the cold air above can be drawn to the surface by the falling precipitation, which begins as rain everywhere. We’ll see a change over to snow at least in the higher elevations of southwestern NH and central MA, possibly northern RI. How far east and how low in elevation this at least mix and possible change can occur is still a little fuzzy and something we’ll have to watch closely as the system evolves. As it stands now, this should be a system that brings steadiest precipitation from mid evening Thursday to mid morning Friday, with the greatest chance of accumulating snow occurring west of the I-95 belt and north of I-90 during the darkness of the early morning of Friday. This system will also produce some gusty wind from the east during the time its producing its heaviest precipitation, which will then switch to north as it stacks with its upper level low and gradually pulls away during Friday. By Saturday, this system will be far enough away that we’re dry again, other than the chance of some lingering low level moisture enough for some drizzle/showers near the coast in the early morning, and perhaps a pop up shower during the day as a considerable amount of cloudiness will be present. A small area of high pressure will have arrived by Sunday which will make the “pick-of-the-weekend” for outdoor activity an easy one…

TODAY: Most clouds early to mid morning southwestern NH, central MA, and RI, with more sun to the east. Mostly sunny to partly cloudy all areas this afternoon. Highs 54-61 coast, 62-69 inland. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 45-52. Wind S to SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Rain arriving in central MA and RI by late in the day. Highs 50-57, coolest coast. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Rain, possibly heavy at times, changing to snow in higher elevations of southwestern NH, central MA, and mixing with or changing to snow in higher elevations of northern RI where some accumulation is possible. Rain may mix with snow eastward toward the I-95 belt overnight. Lows 35-42. Wind E 5-15 MPH but gusting over 20 MPH coastal areas.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with snow/mix/rain inland areas, rain coastal areas, tapering to snow/rain showers and areas of drizzle. Highs 38-45. Wind E to NE 15-25 MPH, strongest coast with gusts 30-40 MPH possible.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with rain showers and areas of drizzle. Temperatures steady 38-45. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, especially coastal areas.

SATURDAY: Cloudy start with lingering rain showers and/or drizzle eastern coastal areas, then mostly cloudy to partly sunny with a slight chance of a passing light rain shower. Highs 45-52. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts possible.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 37-44. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 55-62. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 19-23)

An area of high pressure slides offshore with fair, mild weather April 19. Next trough of low pressure moves in from the west with some unsettled weather April 20-21 before fair weather returns later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 24-28)

Unsettled weather threats most likely early and again late in this period with fair weather in between. Temperatures near to possibly below normal.

C-19 Chat Post – April 14 2021

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 13-17)

Low pressure to our east drifts away today but we’ll still be in a northeasterly air flow behind it with a gusty breeze at times. A weak ridge of high pressure moves over the region Wednesday which will be a decent day with less wind and feeling a bit milder than today will. The next low pressure system approaches from the southwest later Thursday and likely has a more significant impact on our area than the last few have. This is good news, as it looks like it may deliver a batch of significant and beneficial precipitation, mostly in the form of rain. But, the air above us is going to be quite cold for mid April and we may see some mix/snow in higher elevations of interior southern New England. There is some chance that flakes occur even at lower elevations close to the coast if the set-up is just right. It’s hard to forecast such an occurrence more than a couple days in advance, so it will have to be monitored. This system should be slowly pulling away from the region by Saturday, which will likely be a blustery and cool spring day with limited sun, and may even start wet in some areas, depending on how fast the storm system exits.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 47-54, coolest coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, gusts around 20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 39-46. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 55-62, coolest coastal areas. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with light coastal sea breezes.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 45-52. Wind S to SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain possible near the South Coast in the afternoon. Highs 50-57, coolest coast. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely South Coast. Chance of rain to the north. Areas of fog forming. Lows 38-45. Wind SE to E 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Overcast. Rain likely, may mix with or turn to snow some interior higher elevations late day or evening. Temperatures steady 38-45 to start, then may fall slowly. Wind E to NE 10-20 MPH except 15-25 MPH coast with higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain, some mix/snow interior higher elevations and possibly a few lower elevations and coastal areas, tapering off and ending. Lows 32-39. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-35 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy start with lingering rain and/or drizzle eastern coastal areas, then mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 43-50. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 18-22)

High pressure builds in with fair, milder weather for April 18-19. A trough may bring some unsettled weather April 20-21 before fair weather returns at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 23-27)

Next wet weather threat times for the middle of this period which should feature a more zonal (west to east) pattern. Still have to keep this a vague, low confidence forecast at this time.

C-19 Chat Post – April 13 2021

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 12-16)

It’s mid April, and this week’s weather will very typical of its time. Four out of the next five days will fit into the unsettled category, and you may as well root for rain, because we need it. But will anybody see April snowflakes? The answer: Maybe. We’ll get to that. First, we’ll deal with unsettled period number 1, today and Tuesday, which will largely be a cloud-fest and not so much a rain kind of thing. Yes there is a weakening band of rain stretching from the southwest corner of NH and northwestern MA into the Worcester MA area as of sunrise this morning, but that area won’t do a whole lot other than sit in place and rain itself out as its obliterated by mid level dry air. And speaking of sunrise, early-rises were greeted to a spectacular show of color and clouds in the sky in east central and northeastern MA as well as across much of southern NH. This was able to happen as enough dry air above kept the clouds fairly thin to the northeast and east, while enough dry air got in at low levels to allow the deck of stratus clouds to clear out. But the clouds will dominate today, and some lower clouds are likely to return at least in variable form as the air flow continues to come off the Atlantic. A little more dry air may get into the mix tonight to break those clouds up at least partially once again, but in general the cloudiness will dominate through Tuesday, along with very limited rain chances and perhaps enough low level moisture for a few drizzle pockets closer to eastern coastal areas. The upper level low and its associated southward-squashed surface low will finally pull away by Wednesday, when a weak ridge of high pressure builds in for what I’ll call “the weak pick of the week” – probably not a spectacular day, but likely better than the 2 that came before it and the 2 that will come after it. That’s because another upper low will drift its way eastward to the East Coast by later Thursday and Friday. The center of this upper low is likely to pass just to the south of New England during Friday and Friday night, and associated surface low pressure should be able to get closer to New England than did its predecessor, so we stand a better chance at seeing some beneficial precipitation. Precipitation? That means rain, right? Yes, mainly so. But the air with that upper level low is going to be quite cold above us, and some of our fairly reliable guidance has indicated that it will be cold enough for some mixed precipitation or even a turn to snow, especially in higher elevations of interior southern New England, by later Friday. Whether this happens or not, and if it happens whether or not there is any accumulation can’t really be determined yet, but the possibility is definitely there, and something I’ll be monitoring as we go through the week. So many areas reach the middle to upper 70s this past Saturday and just 6 days later some of them could see snowflakes? Yes, and that shouldn’t surprise you. It may represent a contrast of weather, but that’s exactly “normal” for springtime here in New England.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Patchy light rain north central MA and southern NH mainly early morning. A slight chance of light rain eastern CT and RI. Patchy drizzle possible eastern coastal areas mainly during the afternoon. Highs 46-53. Wind E to NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 36-43. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of light rain mostly well southwest of Boston. Chance of drizzle mainly eastern coastal areas through midday. Highs 47-54. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 39-46. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 55-62, coolest coastal areas. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH with light coastal sea breezes.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 45-52. Wind S to SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain possible near the South Coast in the afternoon. Highs 50-57, coolest coast. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely South Coast. Chance of rain to the north. Areas of fog forming. Lows 38-45. Wind SE to E 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Overcast. Rain likely, may mix with or turn to snow some interior higher elevations late day or evening. Temperatures steady 38-45 to start, then may fall slowly. Wind E to NE 10-20 MPH except 15-25 MPH coast with higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 17-21)

If all goes as expected, we’ll be on the back side of departing low pressure to start the third weekend of April with Saturday (17th) being a breezy, cool, sun/cloud kind of day, although eastern coastal areas may be stubborn to improve at first if enough northeast wind and wrap-around moisture lingers behind that system. High pressure is expected to build in for April 18-19 with fair weather and a warming trend but coastal sea breezes of course. A low pressure system from the west may bring some unsettled weather around April 20 possibly into April 21 before departing to the east as we transition to a quicker-flowing zonal (west to east) weather pattern.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 22-26)

Indications / trends for a more zonal pattern, but only low confidence in this due to questionable guidance and the knowledge that a block can form easily in the spring. For now will go with dry weather to start and end this period with a wet weather threat in between.

C-19 Chat Post – April 12 2021

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 11-15)

When my forecast works out, as my self-expectation is that it should daily, my practice is not to point that out, but I do like to point out things that I missed in a forecast. Yesterday, I was torn on whether or not to put the risk of a pop-up shower from the “heat of the day” (in a relative sense) and ahead of an approaching back-door front. I saw that 2 fairly reliable pieces of short range guidance had forecast these pop ups across central Maine and parts of NH, and I thought about adding a pop up possibility to at least southern NH, but opted to leave it out of the written forecast thinking it was the longest of long shots there. Alas, a decent cluster of moderate to even briefly heavy showers popped up over south central NH and made their way into northeastern MA during the late afternoon and evening Saturday. Certainly not a huge forecast buster, but I’m shore that a few folks’ had a surprise on their evening walks, but at least may have been treated to a rainbow after getting unexpectedly wet. Sometimes a forecaster can worry about putting too much in a day’s forecast, but yesterday when doing a regional forecast it would have been accurate to talk about South Coast low clouds and fog, clouds giving way to sun in the major metro areas, a lot of areas getting well into the 70s, a sea breeze still making an appearance for a while along the eastern shore before giving up again late in the day, and the above-mentioned pop up shower cluster. I didn’t have the last 2 on that list in my forecast, but I should have. Ah well – time to move on! During the early morning hours, the aforementioned back-door cold front did slide across the region and while it was not accompanied by a lot of wind or any precipitation, it did introduce a deck of stratus clouds from the northeast, and a notable temperature drop (Logan Airport, for example, from 58 at 3 a.m. to 49 at 4 a.m., now down a bit more to 48 as of 7 a.m.). The temperature drop was a bit more subtle over inland areas as the front got there a little bit later (some areas are still in the middle to upper 50s as of this blog writing). But by late morning all of the region will be in the marine air mass, generally covered in stratus clouds. There was already a deck of stratus and areas of fog back along the South Coast where the wind was still from the southwest before the front’s arrival since last evening, so they had their marine layer there, just from a different direction, now to mix with the new marine layer from the northeast. While this is going on down here at the surface, another arm of moisture from decaying low pressure to our west is moving into the region from the southwest, and its rain area has struggled to make any significant progress. And while still a decent area of rain, it sits still southwest of New York City early this morning, but will make progress toward and into New England from southwest to northeast, so that by the time it gets into the WHW forecast area during the afternoon and evening it will be in the form of patches of mainly light rain. That’s a shame, honestly, because we could really use a decent rainfall. And even though this low pressure area is going to take 2 1/2 days to pass by our area (center passing to the south of here) and we will be in its circulation, it’s really not going to manage to produce any beneficial rainfall, just lots of clouds, cool temperatures, and some damp weather. We may get a sneaky milder day in about Wednesday as we find ourselves with a small ridge of high pressure sliding across the region and offshore between departing low pressure and the approach of another low from the southwest. By Thursday, we may already be back in the envelope of clouds from this approaching low along with a southeasterly air flow.

TODAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog South Coast mainly during this morning. Areas of fog and drizzle developing East Coast mainly during this afternoon. Chance of light rain mid to late afternoon, favoring areas south and west of Boston. Coastal temperatures fall slightly to 45-52. Inland temperatures 50-57 early fall to 45-52 during the day. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain possible. Areas of fog and drizzle. Lows 42-49. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog and drizzle. Periods of rain possible. Highs 47-54, coolest coastal areas. Wind E to NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Lows 41-48. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog and drizzle possible near the East Coast. Highs 47-54. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 39-46. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 55-62, coolest coastal areas. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 45-52. Wind S to SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 52-59, coolest coast. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 16-20)

Slow eastward progression of large scale pattern. While guidance can lead one astray beyond a few days, the current expectation based on a combo of guidance and pattern anticipation leads to a forecast of cloudy/damp/cool weather for April 16 with and east to northeast wind as low pressure passes to the south, but it remains to be seen if we’ll have any significant rainfall. It may even be cold enough for some mixed precipitation and or snowflakes in parts of the region. This low should exit with a drier/cool northerly air flow by April 17. As high pressure ridging nudges eastward we should end up milder/dry for April 18-19 before the next low from the west brings at least clouds back by the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 21-25)

Still not putting much faith in guidance beyond general pattern ideas out this far into the future. Early idea: Dry start, then some wet weather chances. No temperature extremes.