DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 22-26)

Our “visual” of Hurricane Erin, which is nearly non-tropical, is a shield of high clouds in the southeastern sky (overhead of you’re on Outer Cape Cod), early today, but will depart seaward during the day. The indirect impact in the form of larger ocean swells and rough surf has about peaked out now, and will gradually diminish today into the weekend. Our weather will be dry today, Saturday, and through the daylight hours of Sunday into evening. Today will still be on the cooler side with a northeasterly air flow between Erin and a high pressure area to our west, but not quite as cool as yesterday. The weekend will feature a warm-up, with increasing humidity by Sunday, as high pressure shifts overhead then offshore. An approaching cold front will be slow enough to hold back its offering of showery weather until late Sunday night (early hours of Monday) through the daytime hours Monday. Additional low pressure that may have added moisture for more beneficial rainfall appears that it will stay offshore and not add to our rain potential. Tuesday, that system is gone and high pressure builds our way from the Great Lakes, but upper level low pressure will result in a sun/cloud mix while a few pop-up showers likely stay across the mountains to our north and west. That day will feature the return of cooler air and low humidity.

TODAY: High clouds over Outer Cape Cod early, otherwise dominant sun. Highs 75-82, coolest coast. Wind NE 15-25 MPH, strongest coastal areas, except 25-35 MPH Cape Cod, including higher gusts during the morning, shifting to N and gradually diminishing during the afternoon.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 53-60. Wind N to NW under 10 MPH.,

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85, a bit cooler at the coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with light coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 60-67. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 81-88 except 73-80 South Coast. Dew point climbs into the 60s. Wind S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT / MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers and possible thunderstorms. Lows 63-70. Highs 75-82. Dew point 60s. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun / cloud mix. Highs 72-79. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 27-31)

Timing is a little slower in this range that previously indicated. The only unsettled weather potential is a shower threat with a front on August 29. Otherwise, fair weather dominates. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 1-5)

Eyeing an unsettled threat about September 2 otherwise mainly dry weather with mostly seasonable temperatures expected to start September.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 21-25)

Today’s sky will feature some cloudiness, but it won’t be a bad weather day. Initially, lingering clouds from yesterday’s unsettled weather sit mainly south of I-90 while another batch of clouds wheeled in off the ocean to the north and will drift southwestward across a portion of the region this morning. Meanwhile, the high cloud shield from Hurricane Erin well to our south southeast will begin to at least partially overspread our sky during the day (may lead to a nice sunset later for at least southeastern MA / RI). This cloud shield will be at maximum tonight before retreating eastward Friday as Erin makes its closest pass early then accelerates away later (same idea as described on yesterday’s update). No changes to the expectation of larger ocean swells and rough surf – high rip current risk for anyone in the water – so advice is not to go in far enough to be impacted by those if you are at the shore. Cooler than average temps continue today and Friday, though today will be the cooler of those two. Then we get a nice weekend with a warm-up. Humidity will be low Saturday along with light wind and some light coastal sea breezes. Sunday’s humidity will be moderate with a stronger southerly wind developing ahead of an approaching cold front. Timing on this front still looks late enough to hold the shower and potential thunderstorm chance off until Sunday evening or night, and then Monday will be an unsettled day as that front moves through and additional moisture comes up from the south.

TODAY: Patchy low and middle clouds mixed with sun in the morning. Sunshine dimmed at times, especially southeast, by increasing high clouds during the afternoon. Highs 68-75, coolest coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH inland, 10-20 MPH coast except 20-30 MPH Cape Cod with higher gusts likely.

TONIGHT: Considerable high cloudiness. Lows 58-65. Wind NE 10-20 MPH except 20-30 MPH coastal areas especially south of Boston including higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Limited sun early with lots of high clouds, then increasing sun. Highs 75-82, coolest coast. Wind NE 15-25 MPH, strongest coastal areas, except 25-35 MPH Cape Cod, including higher gusts during the morning, shifting to N and gradually diminishing during the afternoon.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 56-63. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85, a bit cooler at the coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with light coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 60-67. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 81-88 except 73-80 South Coast. Dew point climbs into the 60s. Wind S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT / MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers and possible thunderstorms. Lows 63-70. Highs 75-82. Dew point 60s. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 26-30)

Turning dry and cooler August 26-27. Next disturbance / front may bring a shower or t-storm August 28 before fair weather returns later next week.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 31 – SEPTEMBER 4)

High pressure dominates with fair weather and modest warm-up August 31 & September 1. Unsettled weather about September 2 before fair, mild weather returns.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 20-24)

Today’s weather will be cool and mainly cloudy as a disturbance from the northwest moves through the region and undergoes a minor interaction with Hurricane Erin, which is still quite far to our south southeast today. The initial batch of rain aims more north of I-90 this morning to early afternoon, with the focus then shifting more to the south from midday onward. Any rainfall we get right now is beneficial as the region has had quite a dry summer. Temperatures today will run considerably below average – many double-digit departures, so keep that in mind as well if you have outdoor plans. A summary of Hurricane Erin’s main impact on our region… Large long-period ocean swells and rough surf, increasing today, peaking Thursday through early Friday, diminishing later Friday into the weekend. The other will be some gusty wind, especially across southeastern MA, later Thursday into Friday as the storm makes its closest pass during a time its wind field expands significantly (normal for a tropical cyclone in the process of transitioning to post-tropical). There will be no impact from rainfall. We’ll see the high cloud shield from the storm spread over at least a portion of the sky during Thursday before departing during Friday, which will filter / dim the sun Thursday afternoon and Friday morning. This set-up does leave the potential for a spectacular sunset, however, on Thursday evening – something to watch for if you’re a photographer or just like to observe. During all of this Thursday and Friday we’ll have dry weather, and while it won’t be as chilly as today, temperatures will still run significantly below normal on Thursday and slightly below normal on Friday. Our weekend will feature mainly dry weather and a warm-up but with tolerable humidity, only a little more humid Sunday, felt by the most sensitive people. An approaching cold front looks a little slower based on recent guidance trends, so I’ll hold off the previously-forecast shower and thunderstorm threat during Sunday to the evening and nighttime hours on this update, but keep an eye on that for any other trend changes.

TODAY: Mainly cloudy. Periods of rain. Highs 61-68. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mainly cloudy. Some rain lingers especially south evening. Chance of some drizzle and fog eastern coastal areas during the evening. Lows 54-61. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Patchy low and middle clouds mixed with sun in the morning. Sunshine dimmed at times, especially southeast, by increasing high clouds during the afternoon. Highs 68-75, coolest coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH inland, 10-20 MPH coast except 20-30 MPH Cape Cod with higher gusts likely.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Considerable high cloudiness. Lows 58-65. Wind NE 10-20 MPH except 20-30 MPH coastal areas especially south of Boston including higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Limited sun early with lots of high clouds, then increasing sun. Highs 75-82, coolest coast. Wind NE 15-25 MPH, strongest coastal areas, except 25-35 MPH Cape Cod, including higher gusts during the morning, shifting to N and gradually diminishing during the afternoon.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 56-63. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85, a bit cooler at the coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with light coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 60-67. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms possible evening or nighttime. Highs 81-88 except cooler South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 25-29)

A slower-moving frontal boundary and some potential additional moisture from the south brings a better chance of showery weather for August 25. Turning dry and cooler August 26-27. Next disturbance / front may bring a shower or t-storm August 28 before fair weather returns later next week.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 30 – SEPTEMBER 3)

Indications for the August 30-31 weekend are for fair, dry, cool to mild weather, with continued fair weather for Labor Day (September 1) and a warm-up heading toward the middle of the first week of September. While a dry pattern is good news for outdoor plans, it’s not good news for building drought in the region.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 19-23)

We’re in a northwesterly air flow which is part of a weather pattern that deflects Hurricane Erin away from the Northeast later this week, but also brings us some unsettled and very cool weather for a part of this forecast period – but not all of it! No big changes to yesterday’s overall discussion though. High pressure overhead now provides a chilly start to today. We started to see a lot of high clouds yesterday streaming down from the Great Lakes and Canada in that northwesterly air flow and that continues today. Eventually a more solid mid level cloud deck will overtake the sky tonight into Wednesday, when we can see some occasional light rainfall as well. At the surface, an onshore flow can add some low level moisture and patches of drizzle. After today’s “fair weather cool”, Wednesday will have that more cool and raw feeling to it, a little out of character for late August weather. Hurricane Erin’s impact on our region will be limited to heavy surf and large swells, more on south-facing shores than east-facing ones, but still somewhat significant upon the latter. Weatherwise, we will only see a shield of high clouds in the southeastern sky, maybe up to overhead for a while, during Thursday. The storm itself will remain well offshore as it passes by. Heaviest surf / largest swells occur Wednesday through Friday (peak Thursday), and will settle down as we head into Saturday. Erin’s circulation will expand as it passes by, and its interaction with high pressure to the north will create a healthy northeasterly breeze here on Thursday, into Friday when it gradually loses some punch and shifts more to the north. By Saturday, high pressure is in control with tranquil and warmer weather.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 71-78, coolest coast. Wind variable under 10 MPH with light coastal sea breezes developing.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 56-63. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Occasional light rain, especially in the afternoon. Chance of drizzle. Highs 65-72. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows 56-63. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 72-79, coolest coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH with higher gusts coastal areas south of Boston, strongest gusts Cape Cod.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-62. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts especially coast.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-82. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 56-63. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85, a bit cooler at the coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with light coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 24-28)

Warmer and a bit more humid August 24 ahead of an approaching cold front, which brings a chance of showers and thunderstorms later that day, and potential lingering showers and storms into a portion of August 25 as the front may be slow to pass through and exit offshore. Fair, cooler weather follows until the end of the period when there is another expected frontal boundary moving in with a shower and thunderstorm chance.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 29 – SEPTEMBER 2)

Indications are for high pressure dominating into and potentially through the Labor Day Weekend (August 30 – September 1) with fair weather. May have to watch for a frontal passage and brief shower chance September 1 or 2, but timing and details of such features are not really certain this far in advance.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 18-22)

A blanket of clouds sits over our region to start the day today, but dry air moving in from the north will kick off a clearing trend this morning and we’ll end up with much more sun. Also the breezy conditions this morning will settle this afternoon as high pressure builds closer to the region, then overhead tonight, setting up a night of clear sky, calm wind, and radiational cooling. You’ll notice that if you’re heading up early on Tuesday morning. Tuesday itself will be a nice day with lots of sun, the clouds move in late from the northwest with the approach of a disturbance, which will bring a shower chance to our region Wednesday. The magnitude and exact timing of shower activity is somewhat dependent on the interaction of that system with the atmosphere around Hurricane Erin, which will be approaching the waters south and southeast of New England by then. Nothing has changed regarding the expecting intensity and track of Erin, the center passing about half way between the US East Coast and Bermuda. It makes its closest pass to New England Thursday, at which time you’ll at least see its cloud shield in the southeastern sky, and the northwesterly edge of it may expand up across far southeastern areas for a while, but these could be only sun-filtering high clouds, although some lower clouds may form from ocean moisture and stream across the Cape Cod region for a while that day too. Thursday would also be the day that there would be a gusty wind across the same area and a little more noticeable breeze elsewhere in the region. Rough surf and large swells will impact the coast, especially to the south, Wednesday through Friday, also peaking on Thursday. By Friday, the storm is accelerating away into the North Atlantic and high pressure is back in complete control here with fair weather.

TODAY: Clouds give way to sun. Highs 68-75, coolest coast. Dew point falls to 40s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts in coastal areas during this morning, diminishing this afternoon.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Low elevation fog patches. Lows 45-52 inland, 52-59 coastal and urban areas. Dew point in 40s. Wind calm.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny morning. Increasing clouds afternoon. Highs 72-79. Dew point returns to 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TUESDAY NIGHT / WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a few showers. Lows 56-63. Highs 71-78. Dew point in 50s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows 56-63. Dew point lower 50s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 72-79, coolest coast. Dew point lower 50s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH with higher gusts coastal areas south of Boston, strongest gusts Cape Cod.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 52-59. Dew point near 50. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point in 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 23-27)

Warmth and humidity increases this weekend (August 23-24) with a shower and thunderstorm chance late in the weekend with an approaching cold front. Front passes by and fair, cooler weather arrives first few days of next week.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 28 – SEPTEMBER 1)

Another front may bring a shower chance early in the period, after which high pressure moves in with fair and cooler to seasonable weather moving from the middle of next week through the Labor Day Weekend.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 17-21)

Some low clouds sit over portions of the region to start the morning (mainly along I-90 and across the hills of central MA and southwestern NH), but these will erode and dissipate as the sun rises, and sunshine will dominate as it heats up along with higher humidity today, due to offshore high pressure. An approaching cold front will bring the chance for showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon into this evening. While this doesn’t look like a widespread wild weather event, a few of the storms could be strong, so be on the look-out if you have outdoor plans or will be doing traveling. Tonight, the front makes its way through, but it’ll be mainly cloudy for a while and some shower activity may linger especially to the south as we transition to a cooler air mass. Monday’s weather as dominated by Canadian high pressure with a cool breeze and low humidity. As we head through Tuesday and midweek, the overall pattern becomes a little more complex. One player will be the remains of a disturbance heading this way from the northwest. Most indications are that it will weaken significantly and bring cloudiness and some chance of shower activity about Wednesday. During this time, Hurricane Erin, which has maxed out in intensity, and will now fluctuate in intensity before weakening, will be making a re-curve to the northeast and will be tracking northward then northeastward, into its position of closest pass to the US East Coast, about or just over half way between it and Bermuda. That storm will be far enough offshore not to have a significant interaction with the system in our area, which by Thursday, will have vacated our region anyway, and we’ll be back to fair weather with a northeasterly air flow. The only certainty from Erin will be the rough surf and large swells impacting the coast during midweek.

TODAY: Areas of low clouds Boston’s Metro West to RI, eastern CT, central MA, and southwestern NH, dissipating during mid morning. Sunshine late morning into afternoon. Clouds move in later. Late afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms possible, isolated to scattered, but any storms can be strong. Highs 85-92 except cooler South Coast. Dew point rises to near 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouds and a few showers linger mainly south of I-90 early, otherwise clearing. Lows 57-64. Dew point falls to 50s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 73-80. Dew point remains in 50s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low elevation fog patches. Lows 52-59. Dew point lower 50s. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny morning. Increasing clouds afternoon. Highs 72-79. Dew point in 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TUESDAY NIGHT / WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a few showers. Lows 56-63. Highs 71-78. Dew point in 50s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows 56-63. Dew point 50s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 72-79, coolest coast. Dew point near 60. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 22-26)

Fronts / disturbances bring shower and thunderstorm chances about August 24 and 26, otherwise a mainly dry weather pattern is expected as high pressure dominates much of the time. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 27-31)

The final several days of August feature a northwesterly flow pattern. Shower potential with a frontal passage August 28 or 29, otherwise fair. Temperatures near normal early period, below normal to end the month (August 30-31 is the start of the Labor Day Weekend).

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 16-20)

High pressure shifts offshore today, but dew points remain in check, and it will be a nice day by mid August standards. While starting with sun in most of the region (exceptions are a stratus deck in southern RI and patchy Cape Cod clouds), we’ll end up with a sun/cloud mix, both from the development of fair weather clouds, a couple of which can become unfair and deliver an isolated shower or a thunderstorm well north and west of Boston later today, and the advection of high and mid level cloud patches ahead of an approaching warm front, which will pass through the region tonight, introducing a southerly air flow and higher dew point air. This sets us up for a warm (coast) to hot (inland) and more humid Sunday. Thunderstorms will probably pop up in isolated to scattered fashion later Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front. I don’t think the conditions are favorable enough for a sweeping squall line with this frontal boundary as it passes through, but more scattered clusters of showers and thunderstorms over a few hours from mid afternoon to early evening – northwest to southeast. We’ll have to keep an eye out for an isolated severe storm or two. Behind the front comes a cooler, drier air mass for the start of next week. Cloudiness becomes more abundant later Tuesday or Wednesday, including at least a slight shower threat from the remnants of an upstream disturbance moving in from the northwest, but this does not look like a big deal for our region at this point. Meanwhile, Hurricane Erin is undergoing rapid intensification and will be a strong one as it makes a northward and eventually northeastward turn over the next several days. By “day 5” (Wednesday), the hurricane will be passing between the US East Coast and Bermuda, more likely slightly closer to Bermuda than the US East Coast. Impact from Erin will be limited to rough surf and large swells which will begin to increase along our coast during the first few days of next week.

TODAY: Fog patches early morning. Low clouds southern RI early morning. Patchy clouds Cape Cod early to mid morning. Sunshine elsewhere morning. A sun/cloud mix this afternoon. Chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm, mainly in southwestern New Hampshire or north central Massachusetts late in the day. Highs 75-82 coast, 82-89 inland. Dew point 50s to near 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH / coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Areas of fog especially near South Coast. Lows 62-69. Dew point rises into 60s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms probable. Highs 85-92 except cooler South Coast. Dew point rises to near 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 57-64. Dew point falls to 50s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 73-80. Dew point remains in 50s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low elevation fog patches. Lows 52-59. Dew point lower 50s. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny morning. Increasing clouds afternoon. Highs 72-79. Dew point in 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TUESDAY NIGHT / WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a few showers. Lows 56-63. Highs 71-78. Dew point in 50s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 21-25)

Fair weather August 21-22, coolest coast with onshore flow, also large swells / surf along coast as Hurricane Erin makes its closest pass, but well offshore. August 23-25 features higher humidity and a few shower / t-storm chances, but no indications of widespread, lasting wet weather.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 26-30)

Pattern indications are for a more northwesterly air flow in the region. Some up and down temps, but trend for cooler. Shower potential with a frontal passage around August 28.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 15-19)

Canadian high pressure moves in today, delivering drier air and fair weather, then hangs around into the start of the weekend before drifting southeastward over the Atlantic waters by Sunday. An approaching warm front will bring patchy clouds Saturday, otherwise that will be a rain-free, comfortable day, before a spike of heat and humidity Sunday, along with a good chance of showers and thunderstorms from an approaching cold front. This will be followed by another Canadian high pressure area with cooler, dry weather early next week.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-82. Dew point 60+ South Coast, 50s elsewhere. Wind NW to N up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Ground fog patches possible in low elevations areas. Lows 53-60, coolest interior valleys, mildest urban areas. Dew point lower to middle 50s. Wind calm.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 80-87, coolest coast. Dew point sub-60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog overnight Lows 62-69. Dew point rises slow over 60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms probable. Highs 85-92 except cooler South Coast. Dew point rises through 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 57-64. Dew point falls to 50s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 73-80. Dew point remains in 50s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low elevation fog patches. Lows 52-59. Dew point lower 50s. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 72-79. Dew point in 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 20-24)

A stretch of fair and pleasant weather follows mid to late next week, during which time surf and swells along the coast will increase as Erin passes by between Bermuda and the US East Coast as a formidable hurricane. The August 23-24 weekend presents higher humidity and eventually a shower and thunderstorm chance – details TBD.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 25-29)

Pattern indications are for a more northwesterly air flow in the region. Some up and down temps, but trend for cooler. Shower potential with a frontal passage around August 28.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 14-18)

A cold front saunters through the region from northwest to southeast today, briefly pausing before finally moving offshore tonight. This sets up the potential for unsettled weather with showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening. The position of the front dictates that today’s greatest chance for such activity is from the I-95 belt south and east. While I’m not expecting a widespread coverage of storms, any that do occur can be a bit potent, with local flash flooding the primary concern. Keep this in mind if traveling or doing any outside activity during the afternoon hours. An abundance of cloud cover today will be one limiting factor for storm development, not allowing full sun heating and maximization of instability. Any shower and thunderstorm activity will diminish this evening and it clears out tonight as a dry air mass arrives from Canada. High pressure builds in Friday into Saturday with pleasant mid August weather. Friday will feature a few fair weather cumulus clouds, while Saturday we see some patches of high and mid level clouds ahead of an approaching warm front. This boundary will not likely have enough moisture with it to cause any rainfall, hence the dry forecast for Saturday, but it will lead a very warm and more humid air mass into our region for Sunday, at which time an approaching cold front will combine with the warmth and humidity to trigger late-day showers and thunderstorms – the exact timing and coverage of which are to be determined. But for now it looks like we’ll get through much of the day prior to the threat’s existence. Another dry, cooler air mass arrives from Canada behind this front for Monday.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms develop this afternoon into early evening, favoring the I-95 belt south and east. Highs 75-82 South Coast, 89-89 elsewhere. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH, but can be briefly variable, strong, and gusty near any thunderstorms.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Patchy ground fog forms especially in lower elevations. Lows 62-69. Dew point falls below 60 north of I-90 but 60+ to the south. Wind variable to NW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85. Dew point 60+ South Coast, 50s elsewhere. Wind NW to N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Ground fog patches possible in low elevations areas. Lows 53-60, coolest interior valleys, mildest urban areas. Dew point lower to middle 50s. Wind calm.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point sub-60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog overnight Lows 62-69. Dew point rises slow over 60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Late-day showers and thunderstorms possible. Highs 85-92 except cooler South Coast. Dew point rises through 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 57-64. Dew point falls to 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 75-82. Dew point remains in 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 19-23)

Watch for a quick-moving disturbance to bring a shower chance August 19. A stretch of fair and pleasant weather follows mid to late next week, but during this time we’ll have to watch forecast Hurricane Erin likely making a re-curve off the US East Coast, more likely closer to Bermuda than the US. This would generate higher surf and larger ocean swells along the coast.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 24-28)

Pattern indications are for a more northwesterly air flow in the region. Some up and down temps, but trend for cooler. Shower potential with trough / frontal passages around August 24 & 28.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 13-17)

High pressure shifted offshore overnight, introducing a south to southwest air flow, higher dew points, even a layer of stratus and some fog over many areas south of I-90 and in some hilly terrain of north central MA and southwestern NH. This is a little more aggressive intrusion of higher humidity that I had expected, and along with a trend in reliable short-range convective guidance leads me to conclude our thunderstorm chances are better today than I previously prognosticated. Since these will be triggered by an approaching cold front from the west northwest, the greatest chance to see them is north and west of Boston from the second half of the afternoon until around sunset, so anybody with outdoor plans or traveling should be aware of that chance. Prior to that, a very warm to hot day is ours along with that higher humidity. The aforementioned cold front will cross the region on Thursday, bringing the shower and thunderstorm chance south and east with it, and we’ll note it being a little less hot but still humid. High pressure builds in behind the front, bringing fair, pleasant August mid August weather for Friday and Saturday, before another short-lived heat and humidity spike ahead of another cold front Sunday, with the chance of some late day shower and thunderstorm activity ahead of that front.

TODAY: Low clouds / fog patches southwestern NH, central MA, and most area south of I-90 into mid morning before sun elsewhere expands into these areas, but then gives way to a variably cloudy sky west to east later. Showers and thunderstorms possible mid afternoon on, particularly north and west of Boston. Highs 78-85 South Coast, 86-93 elsewhere. Dew point middle 60s to near 70. Wind S to SW up to 10 MPH, but can be strong and gusty near any storms.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms early, especially north of Boston, then partly cloudy with patchy fog forming. Lows 67-74. Dew point upper 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs 85-92 except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Dew point upper 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower early. Patchy fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind SW to variable to NW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85. Dew point falls below 60. Wind NW to N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches interior lower elevations. Lows 56-63. Dew point near 55. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 81-88, cooler some coastal areas. Dew point under 60. Wind N up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 60-67. Dew point approaches 60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Late-day showers and thunderstorms possible. Highs 85-92 except cooler South Coast. Dew point rises through 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 18-22)

Fair, less humid August 18. Watch for a quick-moving disturbance to bring a shower chance August 19. A stretch of fair and pleasant weather follows mid to late next week, but during this time we’ll have to watch forecast Hurricane Erin likely making a re-curve off the US East Coast, more likely closer to Bermuda than the US. This would generate higher surf and larger ocean swells along the coast.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 23-27)

Pattern indications are for a more northwesterly air flow in the region. During this period it would be a warmer start to the period, a mid-period disturbance with a shower / t-storm threat, and a late-period cooler shot.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 12-16)

High pressure dominates with fair weather and a peak to the hot stretch today. It will still be on the hot side Wednesday and Thursday but down a couple degrees on average each day while the humidity increases a bit. Isolated late-day showers and thunderstorms may pop up on Wednesday. Thursday, a cold front will bring a better chance of showers and storms. Canadian high pressure brings fair weather and lower humidity late week.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 80-87 coast, 88-95 inland. Dew point middle 60s. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Clear. Fog patches low elevations. Lows 66-73. Dew point middle 60s. Wind S under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Isolated late-day showers and thunderstorms possible. Highs 78-85 South Coast, 86-93 elsewhere. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Fog patches low elevations. Lows 67-74. Dew point upper 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs 85-92 except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Dew point upper 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower early. Patchy fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind SW to variable to NW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85. Dew point falls below 60. Wind NW to N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches interior lower elevations. Lows 56-63. Dew point near 55. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 81-88, cooler some coastal areas. Dew point under 60. Wind N up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 17-21)

Briefly hotter August 17 with late-day or evening shower/t-storm chances with a cold front approaching. Fair, lower humidity but seasonable warmth early to middle portion of next week. Watching the track of forecast Hurricane Erin which is expected to be somewhere offshore of the US East Coast by the end of the period, generating higher surf at our shoreline.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 22-26)

Forecast Hurricane Erin generates rough surf early period during what is most likely a well-offshore recurve. Fair weather early to mid period. Shower/thunderstorm chances increase later in the period from moisture moving in from the west and south.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 11-15)

High pressure surface and aloft keeps our weather very “Augusty” into midweek with daily sunshine, hotter temps inland and cooler coastal sea breezes, and moderate to borderline high humidity, but short of oppressive. Thursday, a cold front passing through the region may trigger a few showers and thunderstorms, but it remains to be seen how widespread they will be. While that day is a little less hot, it will likely be the most humid day of this week, before drier and slightly cooler air arrives behind that front on Friday.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 78-85 coast, 86-93 inland. Dew point lower 60s. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Clear. Fog patches low elevations. Lows 63-70. Dew point lower 60s. Wind S under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 78-85 coast, 86-93 inland. Dew point middle 60s. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Fog patches low elevations. Lows 65-72. Dew point middle 60s. Wind S under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 78-85 South Coast, 86-93 elsewhere. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Fog patches low elevations. Lows 67-74. Dew point upper 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 86-94 except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Dew point upper 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower early. Patchy fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind SW to variable to NW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-87. Dew point falls below 60. Wind NW to N up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 16-20)

Watching for a frontal boundary to bring a shower / thunderstorm chance later August 17 or August 18, and again later August 19 or early August 20, though much of this period will feature rain-free weather and near to above normal temperatures.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 21-25)

Watching the tropics for a potential system somewhere off the US East Coast early in the period, but this is a very tentative and low confidence outlook, with many days left to figure out the future development and behavior of a system still very far away. Otherwise, watch for one more frontal boundary nearby at some point mid to late period with a shower and thunderstorm chance.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 10-14)

Your Sunday update will be a quick one, not requiring much effort on my part other than a minor tweak to limit the shower and thunderstorm chance to a cold frontal passage Thursday. The days leading up to that will be dominated by high pressure at the surface and aloft with warm to hot summer weather and a daily opportunity for cooling coastal sea breezes. Humidity, while increasing and somewhat noticeable, will never become oppressive during this stretch.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 77-84 coast, 85-92 inland. Dew point around 60. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Clear. Fog patches low elevations. Lows 63-70. Dew point lower 60s. Wind S under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 78-85 coast, 86-93 inland. Dew point lower 60s. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Fog patches low elevations. Lows 63-70. Dew point lower 60s. Wind S under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 78-85 coast, 86-93 inland. Dew point middle 60s. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Fog patches low elevations. Lows 65-72. Dew point middle 60s. Wind S under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 78-85 South Coast, 86-93 elsewhere. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Fog patches low elevations. Lows 67-74. Dew point upper 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 86-94 except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Dew point upper 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 15-19)

High pressure brings fair weather and lower humidity during August 15-16. A couple shower and thunderstorm chances appear possible from later August 17 into August 19. Temperatures near to above normal for the stretch but no major heat appears likely.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 20-24)

Overall pattern presents seasonable to slightly above normal temperatures with a few opportunities for showers and thunderstorms in an otherwise mainly rain-free pattern. A little sanity among all the social media hype about East Coast hurricanes once again: As usual, as a meteorologist, I monitor the tropics. I see what “the models” say. I also know how to utilize the models, which also means knowing when they cannot give you reliable information. If you read this blog frequently, you know the drill on this. Watching the pattern. If there comes a point I feel there’s a threat of something in this forecast time frame, or any point going forward, you’ll know, and the information will be passed along in a responsible manner.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 9-13)

After a cooler than average first week of August, then a couple of seasonable days, including today as high pressure sits over the region, we’ll enter a stretch of above normal temperatures due to building upper level high pressure and continued dominant surface high pressure Sunday into the middle of next week. With a lack of strong surface gradient wind, coastal areas will be susceptible to sea breeze on a daily basis, which will keep the heat in check there, probably keeping many of those areas from ever reaching 90 during the above normal temperature stretch. Higher temperatures are much more likely over inland areas. It is not until Wednesday that we may finally see the chance of a pop-up shower or thunderstorm mainly over inland areas as we see the approach of a trough from the west. Summertime in New England!

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Dew point upper 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH including coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 61-68. Dew point nearing 60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 77-84 coast, 85-92 inland. Dew point around 60. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Fog patches low elevations. Lows 63-70. Dew point lower 60s. Wind S under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 78-85 coast, 86-93 inland. Dew point lower 60s. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Fog patches low elevations. Lows 63-70. Dew point lower 60s. Wind S under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 78-85 coast, 86-93 inland. Dew point middle 60s. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Fog patches low elevations. Lows 65-72. Dew point middle 60s. Wind S under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. An isolated pop-up thunderstorm possible mainly central MA and southwestern NH. Highs 78-85 South Coast, 86-93 elsewhere. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 14-18)

Warm to hot and more humid August 14 with a shower and thunderstorm chance as a frontal boundary moves through the region from west to east. High pressure brings fair weather and lower humidity during August 15-16. Next trough / front may return a shower / t-storm chance August 17 or 18.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 19-23)

There are model runs that depict a tropical storm or hurricane threat for the East Coast as we move through this time frame. However, these computer models cannot be trusted with such prognostications without an actual system to initialize properly. Additionally, looking out at the pattern for both development and likely tracks of systems, I would not lean toward an East Coast threat during this time frame – keeping in mind the natural uncertainty with a forecast out that far. However, I’m always eyeing the tropics for development at this time of year, so if anything comes up, you’ll know. My actual outlook for this period is for a fairly quiet pattern overall, maybe 1 or 2 shower and thunderstorm opportunities, and no sustained major heat.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 8-12)

High pressure continues its dominance through the next several days. Pleasant air will continue to dominate today and Saturday before heat and humidity build gradually Sunday and early next week.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 77-84, cooler some coastal areas. Dew point 60+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 79-86, cooler Cape Cod / South Coast. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind S to SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 85-92, except cooler at the coast. Dew point 65+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH but coastal sea breezes likely.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 65+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 87-94, except cooler at the coast. Dew point near 70. Wind SW up to 10 MPH but coastal sea breezes likely.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 87-94, except cooler at the coast. Dew point near 70. Wind SW up to 10 MPH but coastal sea breeze likely.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 13-17)

Heat and humidity dominate early period. A frontal boundary may bring a shower or thunderstorm around August 14 before fair, warm, less humid weather arrives later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 18-22)

Subtle changes may take place with a little more tropical moisture for a few shower and thunderstorm chances, but likely limited. Temperature near to above normal.