DAYS 1-5 (JULY 30 – AUGUST 3)

Several opportunities for showers and thunderstorms exist the next several days, but only one day appears to present the chance for more widespread activity. We start with a warm, humid southerly air flow today, but high pressure in enough control that any shower and thunderstorm activity will be isolated. A disturbance swinging through from the west Wednesday brings more widespread activity and more cloud cover keeps the temperature a little lower. Behind this, slightly drier air arrives Thursday when I think the shower and thunderstorm chance will become absent. Increasing humidity and a more southwesterly flow returning during Friday does re-initiate the chance of a shower or thunderstorm, but not expecting much during the day with just isolated late-day activity. Currently, Saturday presents very warm, humid weather, with a few afternoon showers or thunderstorms possible – but fine tuning needed.

TODAY: Patchy fog and low clouds early, otherwise a sun/cloud mix. Isolated late-day showers and thunderstorms possible. Highs 82-89 except cooler South Coast. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. A slight chance of a shower early. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms more likely. Highs 78-85. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms possible in the evening. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 84-91, except a bit cooler Cape Cod. Dew point drops to near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 60+. Wind W under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm late in the day. Highs 83-90, cooler South Coast. Dew point rises through 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point middle 60s to near 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. A shower or thunderstorm possible. Highs 83-90. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 4-8)

A trough from the west brings a better chance of showers and thunderstorms August 4 before activity diminishes again early to mid next week with only a couple isolated showers and storms possible a few times. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 9-13)

Similar pattern, warm, humid weather prevails. A few shower and thunderstorm chances.

COMMENTARY

Just about a week ago, our guidance would have most forecasters believing that the least chance of showers was today through Wednesday, followed by an increase in the chance for the first couple days of August. As it turns out, it’s somewhat opposite, but this is why we update forecasts frequently. Prediction of the future is possible, but far from error-free. I always preach about not being too specific too far in advance. We look at general patterns, then try to gradually pin down the details with time. Even sometimes your forecast for the next day, or even same-day, can fail. As a forecaster, you can only hope to get it mostly right more often than you don’t. That’s the science (and somewhat the art) of prediction.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 29 – AUGUST 2)

Today will be the most unsettled / least sunny day of the next several days. Weakening surface low pressure passes just east of the region early today, while a small upper level low pressure area drifts northward across the area during the day. Most of the shower (and some thunderstorm) activity wheeled through from the southeast and east during the overnight hours, but widespread showers are still occurring early this morning over much of eastern CT and RI, with more scattered activity in southeastern MA, and just a few lingering sprinkles of rain moving westward over northeastern to north central MA and southern NH. During the process of both low pressure areas doing as described, the shower coverage will diminish and the clouds will start to show breaks in them as we move toward midday into afternoon. But this process will allow solar heating to help initiate more showers – mainly isolated to scattered – along with a few potential thunderstorms. So even though there is slight improvement set to take place, the low pressure areas will continue to keep it somewhat unsettled. Today will be on the cooler side, with high temps ranging from around 70 in some coastal areas to as high as 80 over areas away from the coast that see any appreciable sun. Any shower and thunderstorm activity wanes tonight, but before that happens, one more batch of formidable activity can come impact parts of the region. If you follow radar, you’ll be able to see a shifting trajectory of any showers during the day / evening. They start out with mostly a westward movement early this morning, but if you look at radar as of 7:30 a.m. you’ll note that there doesn’t appear to be much movement near the coast of RI. This is a reflection of the center of the upper low. The shower activity will respond to the circulation of this system as it lifts northward, so that by the end of the day the showers and storms that remain will be moving more from west to east. Once this system is done with us, high pressure off the US East Coast will become re-established, and we’ll be in a warm, humid southerly air flow from Tuesday through Friday. There will be a daily opportunity for showers and thunderstorms to develop, and right now Wednesday looks like the day with the highest coverage of activity, with the aid of a disturbance moving in from the west, with the least chance being Thursday as slightly drier air moves in behind that disturbance.

TODAY: Starting out overcast with patchy fog – numerous showers eastern CT / RI, scattered showers southeastern MA, isolated light showers elsewhere. Breaks in the clouds follow with partial sun at times, but additional isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible, with activity favoring locations west of I-95. Highs 70-75 coast, 75-80 inland. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind variable under 10 MPH, shifting to N then W up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Lots of clouds. Patchy fog. A possible shower early. Lows 65-72. Dew point 65+. Wind N shifting to W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Highs 81-88. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. A slight chance of a shower. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms more likely. Highs 78-85. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms possible in the evening. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Highs 81-88. Dew point 60+. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 60+. Wind W under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Highs 81-88. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 3-7)

Lower shower and thunderstorm chances August 3-4, higher again August 5-7 when we may see additional tropical moisture, or even some kind of tropical-origin low near or off the East Coast. Overall pattern is warm with frequently moderate to high humidity.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 8-12)

Similar pattern, warm, humid weather prevails. A few shower and thunderstorm chances.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 28 – AUGUST 1)

We get through just about all of today with nice weather, but it gets cut a bit short over Cape Cod and adjacent areas during the afternoon, because offshore low pressure is wasting no time wheeling its moisture our way. Most of the region sees one primary band of showers from it tonight, moving in from southeast to northwest, running out of steam early Monday as it gets further away from its parent low, which will pass by to the east while weakening during the day. So Monday itself doesn’t end up that bad a day overall, with lots of clouds, some sun, and the redevelopment of some shower and thunderstorm activity mainly west of I-95 during the afternoon and evening. Tuesday and Wednesday we will be in a humid southerly air flow. The shower and thunderstorm chance will present itself both days. Currently, it looks like Tuesday’s activity will be limited to late-day, isolated to scattered. The Wednesday activity may appear sooner with greater coverage, but this is not high confidence, and I’ll revisit this next update. Thursday, some drier air should arrive from the west but the atmosphere may still be unstable enough to allow a possible shower or thunderstorm.

TODAY: Sun followed by clouds. Showers arrive Cape Cod / South Coast mid to late afternoon and progress northwestward during the evening. Highs 75-82 coast, 81-88 inland. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind variable to SE increasing to 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers push through during the evening then taper off from southeast to northwest overnight. Patchy fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SE to E 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. An early-day shower mainly west of I-95, then scattered later-day showers and thunderstorms mainly west of I-95 again. Highs 75-82, coolest coast. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind E shifting to N up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Lots of clouds. Patchy fog. A possible shower early. Lows 65-72. Dew point 65+. Wind N shifting to W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Highs 81-88. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. A slight chance of a shower. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 79-86. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A possible shower or thunderstorm. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Highs 81-88. Dew point near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 2-6)

Lower shower and thunderstorm chances August 2-3, higher again August 4-6. Overall pattern is warm with frequently moderate to high humidity.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 7-11)

Nothing really out of the ordinary expected for August .. warm with moderate to high humidity and a couple/few shower and thunderstorm chances we can sort out as they get closer.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 27-31)

The last 5 days of July will feature a pretty nice weekend, then a return to higher humidity and somewhat unsettled weather. But read on, because that doesn’t mean that we’re going to have days of cloudy, wet weather either. Also, while July warmth will prevail, we’ll not have high heat. This weekend, high pressure is in general control, especially today with a hazy blue sky, some high altitude wildfire smoke (not too think) and some sky-dotting fair weather clouds popping up. It warms nicely, but the coast is cooler with a sea breeze, and humidity is fairly low today. The humidity up-ticks slightly, but unnoticed to all but the most sensitive, during Sunday. We’ll also see some increase in high and mid level clouds as the day goes on. This is in response to an offshore low pressure area to the southeast of New England. This system is going to be a minor pest, sending a couple bands of showers into the region mainly Sunday night into Monday, though during the day Monday, a left hook and weakening of low pressure to the south helps relax its grip on the region and we see more breaks in the clouds, some sun, but also the chance of some pop up showers and thunderstorms. The greatest chance of these on Monday is over inland locations, and they would likely drift to the south around the circulation of the weakening low pressure area as it gets closer to the region. That system will continue to dissipate and by Tuesday and Wednesday we’ll find ourselves in a warm, humid south to southwest air flow with a daily chance of a few showers and thunderstorms popping up, but most areas rain-free most of (if not all of) the day.

TODAY: Sun with thin high altitude smoke and a few fair weather clouds. Highs 79-86, coolest coast. Dew point around 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes developing.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 61-68. Dew point around 60. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny start, then clouds increase later. Showers reach Cape Cod later in the day. Highs 81-88, coolest coast. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes redeveloping.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A couple episodes of showers possible. Patchy fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SE to E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy early with a chance of showers and patchy fog, then variably cloudy with isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms favoring locations west of I-95. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind E shifting to N up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Lots of clouds. Patchy fog. A possible shower. Lows 65-72. Dew point 65+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Highs 80-87. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. A slight chance of a shower. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Highs 80-87. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 1-5)

A shower or thunderstorm chance will be present early in the period before it decreases. Overall pattern favors slightly above normal temperatures and moderate to high humidity.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 6-10)

“Typical” August pattern, warm with moderate to high humidity, a few episodes of showers and thunderstorms possible but most times rain-free.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 26-30)

High pressure builds in with great weather today and over the weekend. The sky will have a hazier look to it at times today, which is high altitude smoke from Canadian wildfires, but this should diminish in the sky this weekend. Some fair weather clouds will dot the sky at times today as well, and some high to mid level clouds may move in Sunday ahead of an offshore low pressure area. This low has been shown by guidance, in a quick change, to track closer to New England with unsettled weather Monday, when the previous set of guidance runs was showing high pressure offshore with fair, warm, muggy weather returning. I think what ends up happening is somewhat of a compromise between these 2 solutions, with the offshore system less defined than guidance has shown over the last few runs, but moisture still “out there”, with more in the way of clouds and some form of shower threat for Monday, maybe Tuesday as well. But my confidence level is not high on these 2 days, so the wording becomes generalized for this update, and the forecast for early in the week will be fine-tuned in the next couple updates.

TODAY: Sun / high altitude smoke. Passing fair weather clouds midday on. Highs 78-85. Dew point sub-60. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear – some high altitude smoke especially south early. Lows 59-64. Dew point sub-60. Wind N to variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-87, coolest coastal areas. Dew point sub-60. Wind N to E up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 61-68. Dew point sub-60. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 82-89 but cooler in some coastal locations. Dew point rising to lower 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes developing.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy interior lower elevation fog forms. Lows 62-69. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a shower. Highs 79-86. Dew point 65+. Wind S to variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Lots of clouds. Patchy fog. A possible shower. Lows 65-72. Dew point 65+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a shower. Highs 80-87. Dew point 65+. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 31 – AUGUST 4)

A shower or thunderstorm chance will be present middle of next week, decreasing later in the week. Temperatures near to slightly above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 5-9)

A couple episodes where showers and thunderstorms can occur, but the overall pattern will continue to be rain-free and seasonably warm / moderately humid with a westerly flow aloft and high pressure in control much of the time.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 25-29)

One more unsettled-ish day today with high humidity as a cold front approaches and moves across the region. This front is not going to have a lot of ability to kick off much in the way of shower and thunderstorm activity, despite the high humidity, as conditions upstairs are not great to support sustained activity. So we’ll just be dealing with the lingering effect of a marine layer with some patchy fog and drizzle under a general overcast this morning, then lots of clouds with a chance of a few passing showers and a low chance of a thunderstorm this afternoon to evening. After the front goes by, in comes a drier air mass from Canada, and high pressure builds in for great weather Friday through the weekend! Enjoy! By Monday the high slides offshore enough to allow a little hotter weather in, with slightly higher humidity at that time, but nothing extreme.

TODAY: Mainly cloudy with areas of fog and patchy drizzle this morning. Mostly cloudy to partly sunny this afternoon with isolated showers and a slight chance of a thunderstorm. Highs 78-85, coolest South Coast. Dew point nudges up around 70. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Lots of clouds and a lingering shower or thunderstorm possible early, especially east of I-95 and south of I-90, then a clearing trend. Patchy fog forms in lower elevations. Lows 65-72. Dew point lowers through 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH shifting to NW, a few higher gusts possible.

FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 80-87. Dew point falling to 60 or lower. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60 or lower. Wind NW to variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-87, coolest coastal areas. Dew point sub-60. Wind N to E up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 61-68. Dew point sub-60. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 82-89 but cooler in some coastal locations. Dew point rising to lower 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes developing.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy interior lower elevation fog. Lows 63-70, warmest urban areas. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 84-91. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 30 – AUGUST 3)

Next week’s pattern features warm to hot, humid weather, and generally dry conditions in terms of shower and thunderstorm chances, which will be very limited and mainly around August 1 and/or 2. The heat is not expected to be extreme.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 4-8)

A couple episodes where showers and thunderstorms can occur, but the overall pattern will continue to be rain-free and seasonably warm / moderately humid with a westerly flow aloft and high pressure in control much of the time.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 24-28)

We stay in a mild and humid air mass today as a frontal boundary sits near the South Coast but loses identity as a final weak wave of low pressure moves by, with a weak easterly air flow here and very limited shower activity. Thursday, the wind turns around to the southwest ahead of a slightly stronger cold front that will approach from the northwest. But even with the warmer, more humid air, and a more defined front, the atmosphere won’t support much more than a few showers and potentially heavier thunderstorms firing up during the day. Any of these exit in the evening, and we see a warm but drier air mass move in for Friday and the weekend, courtesy high pressure building through the Great Lakes into the Northeast.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy but occasional breaks of sun here and there as well. Isolated to scattered showers, favoring the morning to midday hours. Highs 72-79, coolest coast. Dew point 65+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH, mostly SE to E.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon. Highs 78-85, coolest South Coast. Dew point around 70. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Lots of clouds and a lingering shower or thunderstorm possible early, especially east of I-95 and south of I-90, then a clearing trend. Patchy fog forms in lower elevations. Lows 65-72. Dew point lowers through 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH shifting to NW, a few higher gusts possible.

FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 80-87. Dew point falling to 60 or lower. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60 or lower. Wind NW to variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-87, coolest coastal areas. Dew point sub-60. Wind N to E up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 61-68. Dew point sub-60. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 82-89 but cooler in some coastal locations. Dew point rising to lower 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes developing.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 29 – AUGUST 2)

High pressure shifts offshore with somewhat higher humidity, fair weather, and above normal temperatures July 29-31. Additional moisture introduces the chance of showers and thunderstorms as we welcome August later next week.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 3-7)

A couple episodes where showers and thunderstorms can occur, but the overall pattern will be rain-free and seasonably warm / moderately humid with a westerly flow aloft and high pressure in control much of the time.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 23-27)

A frontal boundary sitting near the New England South Coast between a trough of low pressure in the Great Lakes and a ridge of high pressure southeast of New England will be the focus for a couple waves of low pressure moving by the region today and Wednesday. The timing of the two main waves is early today and early Wednesday. The concentration of most of the shower activity is north and west early today and southeast early Wednesday, but there can be some pop-up showers and possibly a thunderstorm this afternoon anywhere in the region, but a couple isolated pop up showers Wednesday during the day, which will be a mainly rain-free day otherwise across a good portion of the region. A stronger cold front will sweep across the region Thursday as the Great Lakes trough slides to the east and through New England. This front can kick off a few more showers and thunderstorms that day, with a few stronger storms possible. Drier, seasonably warm weather arrives late this week as high pressure builds in behind that system.

TODAY: Mainly cloudy morning with scattered showers including a few downpours. Partial sun at times afternoon with an additional shower possible along with a slight chance of isolated thunderstorms popping up. Highs 75-82, coolest coastal areas. Dew point 65+. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point middle 60s to around 70. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog early. Best chance of showers comes during the morning favoring areas from the I-95 and I-90 belts east and south, with only a few isolated showers possible during the afternoon. Highs 75-82, coolest coast. Dew point 65+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH, mostly SE to E.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Good chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point 65+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 80-87. Dew point falling to 60 or lower. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60 or lower. Wind NW to variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-87, coolest coastal areas. Dew point sub-60. Wind N to E up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 28 – AUGUST 1)

High pressure is expected to dominate both at the surface and aloft with fair weather and very warm to hot, more humid conditions July 28-31. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase by the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 2-6)

A couple episodes where showers and thunderstorms can occur, but the overall pattern will be rain-free and seasonably warm / moderately humid with a westerly flow aloft and high pressure in control much of the time.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 22-26)

This 5-day period will be unsettled with several shower and thunderstorm opportunities. First a weak warm front or “dew point boundary” lifts across the region today and will be a focal point for a few showers and storms that pop up this afternoon, mainly near to a little north of I-90 in MA. Many areas will see nothing, but those that do can experience a heavy downpour. This dissipates this evening but another frontal boundary sitting near the South Coast will be the track for a low pressure area moving along it overnight and early Tuesday, bringing fairly widespread showers to the region. This exits fairly early in the day Tuesday, and if an additional shower or thunderstorm pops up as the sun tries to break out at times, it will probably take place in the hills to the west, maybe even west of the WHW forecast area altogether. The next wave of low pressure comes along during the morning and midday hours of Wednesday when showers are most likely again, but a drying trend should return during Wednesday afternoon. Thursday’s shower and thunderstorm threat comes from a cold front that will be pushed into and across New England as a disturbance tracks from the Great Lakes across northern New England and adjacent southern Canada. This is the day that has the greatest threat of stronger thunderstorms, but we’ll have to see how it ends up in terms of details based on a few more specifics to be brought into focus the next few days. This front moves offshore Friday, but some upper level energy moving through can still kick off a shower or thunderstorm sometime that day too.

TODAY: High clouds increase, filtering the sun more and more with time. Additionally, isolated pop-up showers and thunderstorms possible this afternoon and early evening mainly near to just north of I-90 in MA. Highs 78-85, coolest along the coast. Dew point ranging from lower 60s north of I-90 to upper 60s South Coast. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH, but a few higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Any isolated showers/storms in MA dissipate early, but clouds thicken and more widespread showers arrive from southwest to northeast late evening and overnight. Areas of fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point in the 60s. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH evening shifting to SE to E overnight.

TUESDAY: Cloudy with showers likely early to mid morning, along with areas of fog, then clouds break for sun at times with only a slight chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm in the hills of southwestern NH to central MA. Highs 76-84, coolest coastal areas. Dew point 65+. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point middle 60s to around 70. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mainly cloudy with a good chance of showers morning to midday, along with areas of fog. Clouds break for sun at times later in the day. Highs 75-82, coolest coast. Dew point middle 60s to 70. Wind variable up to 10 MPH, mostly SE to E.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. A passing shower or thunderstorm possible. Highs 79-86. Dew point falling to lower 60s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 27-31)

Dry, warm to hot, and moderately humid weather expected for the July 27-28 weekend as high pressure builds in. Warm to hot, humid weather with a couple episodes of showers and thunderstorms in the July 29-31 period with high pressure offshore and a frontal boundary approaching from the northwest along with a southwesterly air flow over the region.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 1-5)

The pattern that ends July will also begin August with a general southwesterly flow, moderate to high humidity, and occasional but limited shower and thunderstorm chances.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 21-25)

A weak area of high pressure slips to our south today as a weak cold front drops down from northern New England. I’ve debated with my forecasting self all week whether or not this front will “do anything”, and I do think at this point I cannot rule out a pop-up shower or thunderstorm mainly over southern NH – maybe northern MA – later on today as it moves into the region, but for the most part, the extreme majority of the region will have a rain-free Sunday with moderate humidity and warm air. The leftover clouds over southeastern MA and RI this morning will exit later in the morning, otherwise we’ll see more sun with patchy clouds across the region today. The cold front moves by tonight and any showers that do pop up would die off with the loss of daytime heating, so a quiet night with just some patchy low elevation ground fog. Monday, a weak area of high pressure will sit overhead and allow the development of a sea breeze, which will take temperatures down a few notches for highs over today’s. Tuesday through midweek we find ourselves with a humid southwesterly air flow over the region, but a frontal boundary that sits mostly just to our south, keeping high heat out of the region this time despite higher dew points. But a series of disturbances moving through our region will bring episodic showers and thunderstorms during this period of time. It’s hard to time best shower threats even just a few days in advance, so this process will take place in daily updates as we get closer to and into that time frame. For now, just plan on unsettled weather and higher humidity.

TODAY: Many clouds start the day southeastern MA / RI, otherwise sunshine dominates with patchy clouds. Any early morning fog patches dissipate. Isolated late-day showers or thunderstorms possible southern NH and far northern MA. Highs 82-89, a touch cooler Cape Cod. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind variable to W up to 10 MPH, a few higher gusts possible later in the day.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. A couple showers possible mainly south of I-90 during the afternoon / early evening. Highs 78-85, coolest coastal locations. Dew point lower to middle 60s, rising to upper 60s South Coast. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH, a few higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clouds take over and patchy fog redevelops. Showers arrive overnight. Lows 62-69. Dew point in 60s too. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH evening shifting to SE to E overnight.

TUESDAY: Clouds dominate. Shower chances are highest morning / midday. Areas of fog. Highs 76-84, coolest coastal areas. Dew point 65+. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous showers and possible thunderstorms mainly late evening / overnight. Areas of fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60s. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with showers and areas of fog in the morning. Partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH, may be mostly SE to E.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 26-30)

The humid and showery pattern continues to start the period before a front pushes through and drier air arrives for the July 27-28 weekend, which starts out warm/dry but may end up hotter and more humid, into early the following week before shower and thunderstorm chances return at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 31 – AUGUST 4)

The overall pattern supports typical mid summer moderate to at times high humidity and near to mostly above normal temperatures, with a few shower and thunderstorm opportunities, but not an excessively wet pattern.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 20-24)

High pressure will have weak control of our weather during the weekend. What do I mean by weak control? Well, where yesterday was just a straight up fair weather day with dry air, abundant sun, a few fair-weather clouds, and a nice sea breeze with high pressure in firm control, we have other things to contend with this weekend. The high center weakens a little and slides off to the southeast of New England today, allowing a weak warm front to lift northeastward toward the region. While some diurnal fair weather clouds can pop up still, above this we’ll have considerable high level cloudiness and some patchy mid level clouds fanning in from the west southwest and filtering to dimming the sun. During the day today the dew point that was in the 50s yesterday will edge back up to the lower 60s, but this is still fairly comfortable, especially in comparison to the high humidity that preceded this drier air for many days. There may be just enough mid level moisture passing through tonight to generate some very light rainfall in areas mainly to the south of I-90, but this will exit the region by dawn Sunday, and the day will be pretty nice overall, with just some patchy clouds and low to moderate humidity. A weak cold front will drift down from the north but isn’t really expected to have any impact of note, other than adding some clouds to the sky. What’s left of this front washes out over the region Sunday night into the early part of the coming week. As we get into next week, Monday-Wednesday, expect the pattern to feature an increase in humidity and shower chances with a more established southwesterly air flow returning. The difference this time is that we’ll do this without the return of major heat, just more seasonable warmth.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 81-88 except cooler in some coastal locations. Dew point rising from middle and upper 50s to lower 60s by day’s end. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Sprinkles of very light rain possible south of I-90 and patchy fog possible over interior lower elevations. Lows 60-67, coolest over inland valleys. Dew point lower 60s. Wind W to SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 82-89. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point lower 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. An isolated shower or thunderstorm possible, especially south of I-90. Highs 79-86, coolest coast. Dew point lower 60s. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms become more likely. Highs 78-85. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous showers and possible thunderstorms. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 65+. Wind SW to variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Showers and thunderstorms possible, but may favor the morning hours. Highs 79-86, cooler in some coastal areas. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 25-29)

Higher humidity and shower chances in the July 25-26 period before drier arrives for the weekend and higher humidity makes a comeback at the very end of the period. No prolonged major heat, but temperatures may be notably above normal again by late period.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 30 – AUGUST 3)

Moderate to higher humidity returns along with a few shower and thunderstorm chances, but not an excessively wet pattern. Temperatures near to mostly above normal.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 19-23)

High pressure brings comfortably dry, seasonably warm air to our region today. A warm front lifts across the region Saturday with a large shield of high to some mid level cloudiness, but it will remain dry with no rain generated by the front. Sunday, a weak cold front settles southward through the region, but again it will be a boundary without any real fanfare, producing a few showers only over northern New England, leaving the WHW forecast area in SNE rain-free. So it turns out to be quite a nice weekend, despite some limitation to the sunshine mainly on Saturday. Humidity increases early next week as a southwesterly air flow returns. This time it will come without major heat though, but not without shower and thunderstorm chances, which return in a limited fashion Monday and a more prominent fashion Tuesday.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point upper 50s to 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes developing.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Patchy inland lower elevation ground fog. Lows 54-61, warmest urban areas. Dew point middle to upper 50s. Wind calm.

SATURDAY: Limited sun – lots of clouds (potential for a colorful sunset). Highs 80-87. Dew point rising a little – 60+. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing west to east. Patchy ground fog inland low spots. Lows 60-67, coolest inland valleys. Dew point lower 60s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 82-89. Dew point lower 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 61-68. Dew point lower 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. An isolated shower or thunderstorm possible, especially south of I-90. Highs 79-86, coolest coast. Dew point lower 60s. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms become more likely. Highs 78-85. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 24-28)

Higher humidity and shower chances in the July 24-26 period before drier air returns as the end of the period. No major heat expected.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 29 – AUGUST 2)

Moderate to higher humidity returns along with a few shower and thunderstorm chances, but not an excessively wet pattern. No prolonged major heat.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 18-22)

Today is transition day as a slow-moving cold front moves across the region then comes to a stop off the South Coast tonight. We’ll be under a cloud canopy for a while with a few scattered showers around during this morning and midday as the front traverses the region. Lower dew point air slowly works in from northwest to southeast, so this is not a quick air mass change but a slower transition. But by this evening and tonight, you’ll notice it being much drier than it has been for the past several days, and this will last through most of the weekend, with only a slight increase in humidity again (not to really uncomfortable levels) during Sunday and a little more notable increase by Monday. This will take place as a high pressure area that comes in for the end of this week slides offshore by the end of the weekend and early next week. Additionally, a swath of mid and upper level moisture will provide more cloudiness than previously forecast on Saturday, so there will be limited sun that day. A weak cold front drops down from northern New England Sunday but again only the slightest chance of a shower exists in northern portions of the WHW forecast area. What’s left of this boundary sits over southern New England Monday and may help initiate a few showers near the South Coast.

TODAY: Lots of clouds including a few scattered showers through midday. Increasing sun thereafter. Highs 80-87. Dew point falling into / through 60s from northwest to southeast. Wind variable becoming NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear except patchy ground fog interior lower elevations. Lows 58-65, warmest urban areas. Dew point upper 50 to lower 60s. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny – few fair weather clouds. Highs 78-85, coolest at the coast. Dew point upper 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy interior lower elevation ground fog develops. Lows 57-64. Dew point middle to upper 50s. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 79-86, coolest coast. Dew point upper 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-67. Dew point upper 50s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Maybe an evening shower reaches southern NH. Highs 82-89. Dew point lower 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 61-68. Dew point lower 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. A few showers possible South Coast. Highs 79-86, coolest coast. Dew point lower 60s. Wind variable to E up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 23-27)

Higher humidity and shower chances in the July 23-26 period before drier air returns as the end of the period. No prolonged major heat expected.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 28 – AUGUST 1)

A push of drier air early period then humidity returns again with a few showers / storms possible. No prolonged major heat indicated at this time.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 17-21)

Another hot and humid day today as high pressure remains anchored offshore, but that anchor is going to be pulled up for readjustment shortly. We’ve a cold front approaching, and it brings another good chance of showers and thunderstorms to the region later today and part of tonight. Some of the parameters today will be a little less favorable for severe storms than what we had last evening, but I can’t rule out a couple in the cluster or segments of storms that will form and move into the area. Overall, the trend will be for strongest storms to occur in the western reaches of our region, with a general weakening trend and lessening coverage trend as we see them head eastward, with a general window of 4PM to 10PM from west to east, though this may have to be adjusted a little on its front-end and back-end, pending the initial location of storm development. Overnight, the cold front moves through fairly quietly. Previously, I speculated we may see additional showers part of Thursday morning, but this may not be the case, with just some lingering morning cloudiness to deal with and a slower drop in the humidity – not a quick enter of crisp, dry air. So even without any showers, Thursday is still a transition day in terms of lowering dew points, which will be a process that takes place from northwest to southeast under a mix of sun and clouds. Canadian high pressure comes for a visit with fair, seasonable, low humidity weather Friday and Saturday, before it slides offshore Sunday and we see a slight up-tick in both temperature and humidity, but still quite nice! A weak cold front approaches later Sunday, but outside of a slight chance of a late-day or evening shower making it into northern areas, I don’t expect there will be much evidence of its presence, so we do have a really nice weekend coming up…

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Potential thunderstorms central MA / southwestern NH by evening. Highs 88-95, coolest South Coast. Dew point 70+ but can fall below 70 in some down-slope areas on lee sides of hills. Wind SW increasing to 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms progress eastward in clusters / segments but also diminish with time, then end most places except potentially lingering into overnight to the south of Boston. Areas of fog forming late evening / overnight especially South Coast region. Lows 70-77. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW to variable 5-15 MPH, but can be strong and gusty for brief times around any thunderstorms.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy with most clouds including areas of fog South Coast in the morning, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 80-87. Dew point lowering into and through the 60s from northwest to southeast. Wind variable to NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Patchy interior lower elevation ground fog. Lows 58-65, warmest urban areas. Dew point upper 50 to lower 60s. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny – few fair weather clouds. Highs 78-85, coolest at the coast. Dew point upper 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy interior lower elevation ground fog develops. Lows 57-64. Dew point middle to upper 50s. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 81-88, a bit cooler though in some coastal areas. Dew point upper 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 60-67. Dew point upper 50s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Maybe an evening shower reaches southern NH. Highs 82-89. Dew point lower 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 22-26)

Higher humidity returns next week but probably without a hot spell. Shower/thunderstorm chances are highest in the July 23-25 period.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 27-31)

A push of drier air early period then humidity returns again with a few showers / storms possible. No prolonged major heat indicated at this time.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 16-20)

“The heat pump” aka the Bermuda high keeps on going for a couple more days, giving us hot and humid weather through Wednesday. Today’s thunderstorm threat sets up differently than yesterday’s, with fairly quiet weather through the afternoon – minimal chance of a pop-up storm – with most activity forming out in NY State and charging toward New England, but arriving as weakening showers and possible leftover thunderstorms in the WHW forecast area from west to east during the course of this evening. The speed of the activity will determine how far east it survives before dissipating, but in general many areas will end up seeing little or no activity, with the greatest chance of seeing “something” the further northwest you are in the region. We do it again tomorrow with storm threats, but this time the timing is potentially earlier with a pre-frontal trough ahead of an approaching cold front, so thunderstorm chances go up by mid afternoon and continue into evening / night from west to east. There are still details to be figured out for this, so check tomorrow’s update for sure! The front will be a little sluggish to make it all the way through the region, so Thursday morning carries a shower and potential thunderstorm chance at least near the South Coast up to the South Shore of MA into the morning, otherwise look for a transition day to cooler and less humid air from Canada. Friday and Saturday we’ll get the benefit of this air mass as high pressure dominates with seasonable and dry weather – perfect for summer outdoor activities (don’t forget your sun screen!).

TODAY: Any early fog patches dissipate. Sun and patchy clouds. Highs 90-97 except 83-90 South Coast and 76-83 Cape Cod. Dew point upper 60s to middle 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy evening with a shower or thunderstorm possible especially northwest of Boston. Partly to mostly clear overnight but patchy fog forms in lower elevations. Lows 68-75, warmest urban areas. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Potential afternoon thunderstorms. Highs 88-95, except cooler South Coast. Dew point 70+. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, but can be stronger and variable around any storms.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Areas of fog. Lows 70-77. Dew point 70+. Wind SW to variable up to 10 MPH but can be stronger and variable around any storms.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms, favoring the morning and the MA South Shore to South Coast. Highs 80-87. Dew point lowering into/through 60s. Wind variable to NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Patchy interior lower elevation ground fog. Lows 56-63. Dew point middle to upper 50s. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny – few fair weather clouds. Highs 81-88, but a little cooler in some coastal areas. Dew point middle to upper 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 57-64. Dew point lower to middle 50s. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 81-88, a bit cooler though in some coastal areas. Dew point middle to upper 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 21-25)

High pressure slides offshore allowing an increase in humidity but still mainly fair weather early in the period. A nearby frontal boundary brings a better chance of showers / thunderstorms mid to late period.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 26-30)

A push of drier air early period then humidity returns again with a few showers / storms possible. No prolonged major heat.