C-19 Chat Post – November 9 2020

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 8-12)

Discussion…

A quick update today so you can get out and enjoy the great November weather! High pressure continues its dominance for a few more days with a warm & dry pattern, although today’s temperatures will be down a little bit over yesterday’s especially near the coast, due to a developing sea breeze. True sea breezes are more common in spring than autumn, but they will occur in autumn when the land is sufficiently heated and the water temperature is cool in comparison – exactly what we will see today. We’re still looking at a cold front to move into and through the region Wednesday with rain showers arriving, then the front will settle just to the south Thursday holding clouds in after wet weather departs and it turns cooler. As a reminder, Boston’s record high temps for the next 4 days, starting today, are 74, 74, 78, and 69. Monday’s and Wednesday’s will be challenged.

Details…

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 65-70 coast, 70-75 inland. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 48-55. Wind variable to SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 48-55. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Lows 52-59. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY (VETERANS DAY): Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Humid. Highs 65-72. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain showers likely. Lows 50-57. Wind S to variable 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain early. Temperatures steady 50-57. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 13-17)

High pressure is expected to push far enough south to bring fair but seasonably cool weather back for November 13 into November 14 before a wave of low pressure brings a chance of wet weather for November 15. Confidence drops off very quickly later in this forecast period as guidance is very divergent and inconsistent. Right now thinking dry/breezy/cool November 16, warming up with rain showers November 17, but this may change.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 18-22)

Confidence is far too low for a day-to-day outlook but overall pattern looks dry and seasonable to slightly milder than normal.

C-19 Chat Post – November 8 2020

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 7-11)

Discussion…

The contrast from one week ago to now is a great example of the variability of weather we can see – from cleaning up from a 3 to 6 inch snowfall and barely getting above 40 last Saturday for Halloween to many areas heading for 70 or higher under full (though short-lived) November sunshine today. Over the last several days the weather pattern has made a significant shift from that trough of low pressure bringing the winter preview to the East to a ridge of high pressure pushing the jet stream well into Canada and bringing some weather that reminds you a little of those late summer days. The warmer than average and dry weather will continue for several more days as the ridge holds in place, and then we will see a change take place at the middle of next week as we have a cold front move in from the west while a plume of moisture from the tropics starts to stream northeastward from the Gulf of Mexico (where Tropical Storm Eta will be located). It remains to be seen how much of that tropical moisture gets involved with the cold front moving into the area, but it should be enough to bring at least a solid episode of rain shower activity. Boston’s record high temperatures for the next 5 days (November 7-11) are 77, 74, 74, 78, and 69. At this point, I think the most vulnerable record is the one for November 11, but I could not 100% rule out one or more of the others being challenged, especially today’s and Monday’s.

Details…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy ground fog forming over lower elevations. Lows 48-55. Wind calm.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 65-72, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 48-55. Wind variable to SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 48-55. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Lows 52-59. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY (VETERANS DAY): Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Humid. Highs 65-72. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 12-16)

The cold front that comes through at midweek will be hanging just south of the region with additional waves of low pressure bringing at least lots of cloudiness and the opportunity for some rainfall later next week at times, but with drier interludes as well including into the start of the following week. Temperatures average somewhat above normal but not as warm as the current stretch.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 17-21)

Add struggling guidance to the normally lower confidence of a medium range forecast, a little A.M.E. technique, and my current call for this period is for one more surge of mild air and some wet weather to start out, then a trend to more seasonable chill and drier weather.

C-19 Chat Post – November 7 2020

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 6-10)

Discussion…

While I don’t want to sound too repetitive, people like to hear about good weather, especially in what is statistically the cloudiest month of the year and typically much cooler than we’ll see over this 5-day period. As high pressure continues to dominate, we’ll have plenty of fair and mild to warm weather. I still feel Sunday will be the coolest day overall as we open the door for an ocean breeze. Despite this very mild spell, however, not many record temperatures are threatened, as many of those are several degrees higher than the potential high temperatures we will be seeing. Nevertheless, a great stretch of November weather – enjoy if you can!

Details…

TODAY: Clouds dominant this morning, sunshine taking over for afternoon. Highs 63-70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 46-53. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy ground fog interior lower elevations. Lows 45-52. Wind calm.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 64-71 but turning cooler in coastal areas in the afternoon. Wind calm to variable under 10 MPH, then developing sea breezes coastal areas.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 45-52. Wind variable to SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 66-73. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 47-54. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 11-15)

The long stretch of dry/mild weather comes to an end for this period with the passage of a cold front on Veterans Day November 11, bringing cloudiness and a chance of rain showers. That day itself will still be quite mild and may be the only day that Boston has a shot at setting a record high (which stand at 69). That front settles just to the south of the region and areas of low pressure may be close enough to bring some additional episodes of unsettled weather during the remainder of the period with temperatures close to seasonable levels for this time of year.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 16-20)

This is a lower-than-average confidence period for forecasting with questionable model performance, and a few unknowns regarding tropical moisture connections, but for now the thought progress is a transition to a more zonal pattern starting with a brief cool down, then a quick warm-up, some rain showers but no big storm, then a cooler/drier finish to the period. There will be a lot of fine-tuning in forecasts beyond a few days in advance. So always remember to take more extended outlooks just as a guide to what may take place, knowing there can be significant changes (hopefully not daily!).

C-19 Chat Post – November 6 2020

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 5-9)

Discussion…

High pressure will be in control of the weather for many days to come. A weak plume of tropical moisture will bring some lower clouds at times to the South Coast region today through early Friday, and mid and high level cloudiness from a weakening trough will pass by tonight and early Friday. Other than a generally warm west to southwest air flow many of these days, we’ll have a lighter pressure gradient between 2 high pressure areas Sunday which will allow for a cooler ocean breeze to develop especially in eastern areas, making that a cooler day.

Details…

TODAY: Mostly sunny except partly sunny near the South Coast. Highs 59-66. Wind SW up to 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind SW under up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Lots of clouds early, then sunshine. Highs 62-69. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 40-47. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy ground fog interior lower elevations. Lows 45-52. Wind calm.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 64-71 but turning cooler in coastal areas in the afternoon. Wind calm to variable under 10 MPH, then developing sea breezes coastal areas.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 45-52. Wind variable to SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 66-73. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 10-14)

The November warm spell continues into Veterans Day (November 11) with dry weather the day before and a chance of rain showers on the holiday as a cold front moves through the region. This will put an end to the unseasonable warmth and bring temperatures back toward seasonable levels for the balance of the period. We will have to watch for low pressure south of the region around November 12-14 with an unsettled weather threat.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 15-19)

This 5-day period may feature a couple bouts of unsettled weather as we’re in a southwesterly air flow and near the boundary of very mild air near the East Coast and colder air pushing into the Midwest. Much fine-tuning needed. Higher wet weather threats focused around November 15 & 17.

C-19 Chat Post – November 5 2020

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 4-8)

Discussion…

A warm front is passing by now, and this opens the door for days of mild to warm & dry November weather as high pressure dominates. The remains of a trough coming through the region will probably bring us some cloudiness for the first part of Friday, but after the early clouds in eastern areas with the warm front today, and that minor interruption, we’ll be seeing lots of sunshine during the shortening daylights. Most of the time we’ll be in a fair warm west to southwest air flow, but a bubble of high pressure in eastern Canada should be strong enough to weaken the wind field as there is a boundary between it and high pressure to the south, and this should open the door for a slightly cooler sea breeze to develop Sunday. A sea breeze is less common in autumn than spring, but if we get warm enough land at this time of year we will get one to develop under these conditions. So that will basically be the most exciting weather to track over the next 5 days.

Details…

TODAY: Early clouds, then mostly sunny. Highs 48-55. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 33-40. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 59-66. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Lots of clouds early, then sunshine. Highs 60-67. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 40-47. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy ground fog interior lower elevations. Lows 45-52. Wind calm.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 64-71 but turning cooler in coastal areas in the afternoon. Wind calm to variable under 10 MPH, then developing sea breezes coastal areas.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 9-13)

The mild/tranquil pattern continues November 9-10 as high pressure rules. Finally a front from the west brings the chance of rain showers November 11 and may settle just south of the region with additional low pressure bringing unsettled weather for the remainder of this forecast period along with somewhat cooler air. Only low to moderate confidence for this scenario.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 14-18)

This 5-day period may feature a couple bouts of unsettled weather as we’re in a southwesterly air flow and near the boundary of very mild air near the East Coast and colder air pushing into the Midwest. Much fine-tuning needed.

C-19 Chat Post – November 4 2020

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 3-7)

Discussion…

A few rain and snow showers start the day in southeastern sections (further south than I expected originally) but these will not cause any significant travel issues and will be gone in short order, leaving the region with a breezy, but bright Election Day. If you are in-person voting, dress for the chill because you’ll feel it. But this is the end of the colder weather for quite some time as we are flipping the weather pattern and will see the cold air make a return to the western US while here in the eastern US we warm up. This will be due to a fairly stable pattern of large scale low pressure in the West and a large ridge of high pressure dominating the East.

Details…

TODAY: Lots of clouds and passing rain/snow showers southeastern MA and RI early, then mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-35 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear evening. Clouding up overnight. Lows 22-29. Wind W under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Early clouds, then mostly sunny. Highs 48-55. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 33-40. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 60-67. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 40-47. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 8-12)

High pressure will be dominant with dry weather through November 10. Temperatures may cool very slightly November 8 before warming again, but will average above to much above normal. A cold front will be due about November 11 (Veterans Day) with some rain showers and an end to the warm spell, and low pressure may come along as this front sits just south of the region with at least cloudiness and possibly some precipitation at the end of this period.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 13-17)

Unsettled weather potential early in the period as a frontal boundary pushes back to the north then low pressure drags another front through from the west to bring a surge of cooler/drier weather mid period before a late-period warm-up.

C-19 Chat Post – November 3 2020

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 2-6)

Discussion…

This week starts off with a shot of modified arctic air. You’ll feel it today, especially with winds from the northwest that will gust in the 35-45 MPH range, making temperatures around 40 feel more like they are near 32. The gusty wind is also likely to take down some weakened tree limbs and maybe even a few older whole trees, resulting in isolated to scattered power outages. Please use caution if walking and/or driving especially near trees. Tonight, a disturbance crosses the region with a few snow showers, except rain or snow showers southeastern MA and RI, and even a heavier snow squall may occur, especially north of Boston. This will usher one more surge of wind and cold into the region for Election Day Tuesday. If you are heading out to the polls, be ready for some additional wind and quite chilly air, although the wind will not be as strong as it will be today, and it will also turn out sunnier than today will be. And then things change when we get to midweek. A warm front will scoot through the region with little fanfare except for some cloudiness early Wednesday, and as high pressure takes up residence south of New England we’ll find ourselves in a mild pattern for the remainder of the week. The remains of a disturbance may bring a few more cloudiness to the region early Friday.

Details…

TODAY: Sun and clouds. A passing shower of rain, sleet, and snow possible. Highs 37-44. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, gusts 35-45 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Passing snow showers, except rain/mix/snow showers southeastern MA / RI. A brief heavier snow squall possible mainly northern MA and southern NH with a small accumulation possible. Lows 27-33. Wind W 10-20 MPH with gusts over 30 MPH.

TUESDAY: Early clouds and a possible snow shower, then partly to mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, diminishing late.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear evening. Increasing clouds overnight. Lows 22-29. Wind W under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Early clouds, then mostly sunny. Highs 48-55. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 33-40. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 60-67. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 7-11)

High pressure will continue its dominance, with above normal temperatures. November 8-9 may end up slightly cooler than the other days due to a wind shift from a high pressure area to the north not well-forecast by guidance at this time. Previous thinking was that a cold front may arrive November 10 with a rain shower risk, but that currently looks more like the end of this period.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 12-16)

Watch for a period of unsettled weather around November 12-13 as a front may settle just south of the region with a wave of 2 of low pressure on it. Generally fair weather and possibly another push of cold air follows this.

C-19 Chat Post – November 2 2020