DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 9-13)

Three storms impact the region during this 5-day forecast period. The first is the ongoing one, which is in its late stages as low pressure begins to pull away. A trough extending from it passing through the region this morning deposits another coating to 2 inches of snow atop what fell so far, bring the region into the lower to mid portion of the forecast ranges posted yesterday. Drier air arrives later today and tonight, lasting through Monday, as high pressure builds in with fair weather returning. The next storm to deal with is low pressure passing south of our area late Tuesday to early Wednesday. The main bulk of this one is going to stay south, and its northern fringe will impact at least the southern portion of our region with a light snowfall. After a brief pause, a more potent low pressure area will move our way via the Midwest, and this one will make more of a direct hit on the region Thursday. Currently, at day 5, this system looks similar in some ways to last Thursday, quick-moving, cold air in place for a snowy start, and maybe a variety of precipitation occurring before it moves out of the region. Obviously, those details need some time to be worked out, but you know this will take place over the next several blog posts.

TODAY: Cloudy into midday with an additional period of snow northwest to east, accumulating under 1 inch western half of region, 1-2 inches eastern half, also some ocean-effect snow showers on a portion of the MA South Shore for a few hours can also add a little to the accumulation in that area. Breaking clouds / partial sun mid to late afternoon. Highs 26-33. Wind NE shifting to NW increasing to 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts by day’s end.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 13-20. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 30-37. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 7-14. Wind W under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 25-32. Wind N under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. A period of snow, mainly from the I-90 region southward. Lows 17-24. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow South Coast region early. Highs 26-33. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT / THURSDAY: Cloudy. Snow arrives, then may transition to mix/rain before ending. Temperatures range 25-35 regionwide. Wind NE to variable 5-15 MPH, possibly stronger.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 14-18)

Fair weather February 14 with an area of high pressure moving in briefly. Next storm threat comes later February 15 through February 16 with probable snow/mix, before fair weather returns again later in the period. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 19-23)

Temperatures variable but averaging near to below normal for the period. Pattern remains active one or two potential precipitation events.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 8-12)

The next storm system in a series is on the way for tonight into Sunday. This one is a quick-moving low pressure area with a solid area of precipitation and cold enough air for mainly snow across the region. A dry slot at mid levels of the atmosphere will lighten up the precipitation in the South Coast region, where some sleet to even freezing drizzle can occur for a few hours mid storm, after which the snow area will move back in for the last several hours of it. To the north, a steadier snowfall will occur for the storm’s duration, with one band of heavier snow possible for a few hours as well. It all tapers off and ends from west to east as low pressure starts to pull away midday Sunday, leaving us with partial clearing / breaks of sun later Sunday. High pressure brings fair weather to the region during Monday. The next low pressure system to watch threatens more snow late Tuesday and early Wednesday, but the trend on this one has been south, so the greatest chance for what looks like a lighter snowfall is in the South Coast region, but this system’s track is not set in stone, so monitor for changes.

TODAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs 27-34. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Snow arrives west to east, may fall heavily for a while. Significant chance for a tapering of snow and a flip to sleet / drizzle South Coast region for a while overnight. Lows 20-27 except steady 27-34 South Coast (warmest Nantucket). Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Overcast through midday with snow, except a possible mix South Coast early before going back to snow. Storm snowfall accumulation a general 4 to 8 inches regionwide except 2 to 4 inches Cape Cod / Islands / immediate South Coast. Breaking clouds / partial sun later in the day. Highs 28-35. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, shifting to NW with higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 22-30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusty.

MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusty.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 15-22. Diminishing NW wind.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 28-35. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of snow, favoring the South Coast region. Lows 20-27. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow South Coast region early. Chance of snow all areas at night. Highs 28-35. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 13-17)

Storm impact February 13 with the potential for a variety of precipitation, depending on the track of the storm – to be fine-tuned over the next few days. A break February 14 with high pressure bringing fair weather. Next round of wintry weather arrives on the February 15-17 extended weekend, timing and details TBD. Overall temperatures near to below normal, but somewhat variable with passing storm systems.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 18-22)

Temperatures variable but averaging near to below normal for the period. Pattern remains active one or two potential precipitation events.

REVIEW / COMMENTARY

A quick review on yesterday’s event, forecast to be generally a 1 to 3 inch snowfall (less South Coast) with some sleet and ending as some rain / ice. Timeline was a little quicker with both the onset of snow and even more so with the advance of warming aloft, with the snowfall amounts generally 1/2 to 2 inches in the “main” area, an error of about 1/2 to 1 inch in any given location. This leads me to the commentary. Across the net, the criticism was over the top. It’s apparent to me that the majority of the population continues to focus on top numbers in ranges and also fail to remember that forecasts are predictions of the future. They also are failing to remember that predicting snowfall to the nearest inch is about the same as predicting rainfall to the nearest tenth of an inch, in general. These are things that obviously need to be spelled out in detail so that those who forget these basic facts so easily can be re-spoon-fed the information before they jump all over the forecasters for being “wrong” about something that likely had very little impact on their overall plans. And even if it did. Oh well, it’s a prediction, not a guarantee. And despite what many people might think, we’re still correct far more often than we’re not. Criticism is one thing, but uneducated / unfair criticism is another thing entirely, and I will defend my colleagues each and every time against anyone and everyone that I have to. 🙂 So now, before I get to my expectations / predictions for the coming five day period, I’ll start with this reminder. These are my best ideas for the upcoming weather, based on my interpretation of the information available at the time of this writing. My advice is to check back for updates, since it should go without saying that predictions for a time further away from t = zero (where ‘t’ is time from now and ‘zero’ = now) have generally more error the further away from ‘t=zero’ you get. This is pretty much easy logic, but often seems lost on many people. Not sure why.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 7-11)

High pressure builds toward our region today, but the pressure difference between it and a low pressure area in eastern Canada will create a gusty breeze. The moving air and low dew point will help improve ground conditions (melting and/or drying snow / ice from the recent event). High pressure moves over the region tonight and early Saturday with fair, seasonably chilly, more tranquil weather as winds drop off. But in the active pattern we’re in, the next low pressure system heads our way as the weekend goes on. The next system takes a track further south than its predecessor, but is also a slightly more potent system. The track to the south allows the cold air to stay locked in so that other than some potential mixing along the South Coast, the coming event Saturday night into Sunday will be generally a straight snow event. Despite the decent potential for a slug of moderate to heavy snow (intensity), the quick movement of the system will be a slight limiting factor for potential snowfall accumulation across the region, making it more likely a moderate snowfall, in general, for the region. A small southward jog in the track would result in lower amounts in southern NH and northern MA with more from the I-90 belt to the South Coast, while a slightly northward shift would introduce more mixing and lower snow amounts in the South Coast region with widespread significant snow accumulation elsewhere. This forecast plays the middle ground and leaves room for adjustment in either direction on the next update, if necessary. Beyond the weekend event, we get a break in the weather on Monday with an area of high pressure moving in. But as the pattern is active, the next low pressure impact threat comes at some point Tuesday, likely late-day and night – details TBD, but leaning toward a system tracking to the south some some snow for our region.

TODAY: Cloud/sun mix trending to more sun. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 16-23. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs 27-34. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow arrives west to east. Lows 20-27. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Overcast through midday with snow, except a possible mix South Coast. Expected snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches for most of the region, with areas of under 5 inches possible in southern NH and far northern MA with any southerly track shift, as well as along the South Coast if any mixing occurs. Partial clearing mid to late afternoon with breaks of sun. Highs 28-35. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, shifting to NW with higher gusts late-day.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 22-30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusty.

MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusty.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 15-22. Diminishing NW wind.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow late. Highs 28-35. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 12-16)

Storm system impact potential early February 12, February 13, and later February 15 into February 16, based on current expected timing of systems. All of these have the potential to include frozen precipitation or a variety. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 17-21)

Temperatures variable but averaging near to below normal for the period. Pattern remains active with two potential precipitation events.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 6-10)

A series of winter storms looms, and two of them will impact our region during this 5-day period. The first one is a daytime storm system impacting our region today as low pressure travels this way from the west southwest. As the low approaches, it’ll deliver a fairly short-lived but strong area of precipitation, which starts as snow from mid to late morning – southwest to northeast – then flips to sleet and eventually a brief period of rain and drizzle, which will be falling into sub-freezing air over some inland locations, creating a light glaze or newly fallen snow or any cleared / untreated surfaces. But the bulk of this event will be in the form of snow, with a minor to “low end” moderate accumulation common. Tonight, the system exits and we clear out, with a fair but windy day for Friday. The high temps Friday climb above freezing with some melting being able to take place. Meltwater will re-freeze Friday night, and while the weather remains fair through the daylight hours of Saturday, watch for icy spots from that re-frozen meltwater. While this is going on, high pressure that moves toward the region Friday, squeezing the air between it self and departing low pressure for the wind, will then move overhead at night with winds dropping off, then will push off to the northeast Saturday as the next storm system heads in this direction. We’ll see the clouds increase ahead of it during the day, and then its precipitation shield will impact the region Saturday night and Sunday morning. The track of this system looks a touch further south than the one that precedes it, and it will have more available moisture and last a little longer, so I’m looking for a widespread moderate snowfall. There may be some mix / change to sleet / ice / rain in southern portions of the region – especially near the South Coast, depending on how far north the low’s track is. This system departs later Sunday, replaced by fair weather and wind. The wind subsides and the fair weather dominates on Monday as an area of high pressure moves in.

TODAY: Overcast. Snow arrives by late morning, transitions to sleet / freezing rain north & sleet / rain south before tapering off at day’s end. Snow / sleet accumulation coating to 1 inch South Coast, 1 to 3 inches elsewhere, with a few 3+ inch amounts potentially north central MA and southwestern NH, as well as I-90 belt to Boston and southern suburbs. Highs 30-37 north & west / 38-45 south & east by late day. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts in some coastal locations.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Watch for black ice formation on untreated surfaces that have been cleared of snow and sleet. Lows 23-30. Wind variable to NW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 16-23. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs 27-34. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow arrives southwest to northeast with up to several inches of accumulation likely. Lows 20-27. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Overcast through midday with snow, possibly mixed with sleet/ice/rain in some areas before ending. (Total accumulation details on next update, but 4+ inches of snow is quite possible in much of the region.) Partial clearing late-day. Highs 33-40. Wind variable to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts late-day.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 22-30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusty.

MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusty.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 11-15)

Next window of opportunity unsettled weather early to mid period – early call being 1 or 2 waves of low pressure moving south of the region with odds favoring snow over mix/rain. Fair weather returns later in the period. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 16-20)

Temperatures variable but averaging near to below normal for the period. Active pattern with two potential impacts from low pressure.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 5-9)

We have 2 storm systems to deal with during the next 5 days, but today is not one of those storm days. Governed by high pressure, it will be sunny (though you’ll notice some increase in high, thin clouds), and with a polar air mass in place, it will be cold. Things change quickly tonight and Thursday as low pressure moves our way from the west southwest, thickening up the clouds tonight and leading to a “daytime” storm on Thursday. Snow moves in during the morning to midday, accumulates up to a few to several inches, but advancing warm air aloft will flip that snow to sleet then briefly rain (south) and freezing rain (north) before it tapers and ends quickly by around dusk. Clearing follows at night, and high pressure builds in with nice mid winter weather on Friday. Before you know it, we’ll be dealing with the next storm system, this weekend. Clouds advance Saturday, and a similar precipitation set-up seems in the cards for Saturday night and Sunday morning. This system may carry a bit more moisture and have a bit more cold air to work with for a little longer, so while the general idea on precipitation is similar, the amounts of snow that can fall may be a little greater than the system that precedes it. Those details are still TBD.

TODAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 28-35. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouding up. Lows 17-24. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Overcast. Snow arrives by late morning, transitions to sleet / freezing rain north & sleet / rain south before tapering off at day’s end. Snow / sleet accumulation coating to 1 inch South Coast, 1 to 3 inches elsewhere, with a few 3+ inch amounts potentially north central MA and southwestern NH, as well as I-90 belt to Boston and southern suburbs. Highs 30-37 north & west / 38-45 south & east by late day. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts in some coastal locations.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Watch for black ice formation on untreated surfaces that have been cleared of snow and sleet. Lows 23-30. Wind variable to NW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 16-23. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs 27-34. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow arrives southwest to northeast with up to several inches of accumulation likely. Lows 20-27. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Overcast morning with snow/sleet/ice/rain tapering off southwest to northeast. Partial clearing afternoon. Highs 33-40. Wind variable to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts late-day.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 10-14)

Next window of opportunity for a storm system comes February 11-13 and looks like a colder event with snow, favoring southern areas, but still a long way to go to refine the details on that. Fair weather to start and end the period. Temperatures run slightly below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 15-19)

Temperatures variable but averaging near to below normal for the period. Active pattern with two potential impacts from low pressure.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 4-8)

High pressure in the Great Lakes builds toward the region today but the air flow between it and low pressure over eastern Canada increases the northwesterly air flow, which will drive colder air in. This high moves over us tonight into Wednesday with dry, cold, weather and wind settling down. The high slides out of the way Wednesday night and a rapidly-moving low pressure area passes through from southwest to northeast on Thursday. The air is cold enough for this to begin as snow for the region, but warming aloft changes it to sleet and a period of rain before it exits later in the day or early evening. It’s moving quickly enough so that the change to rain may not even be complete before the precipitation exits – so areas to the north go more from snow to sleet (maybe a brief period of freezing rain if it warms enough aloft but stays cold at the surface) while areas to the south go through the transition from snow to sleet to rain a little more quickly. High pressure builds in for Friday and Friday night with fair, seasonably chilly weather, and the high hangs on for Saturday but slowly exits as clouds start coming into the region ahead of the next low pressure system, which we will hear from by Saturday night, based on current timing.

TODAY: Clouds exit the South Coast and Cape Cod areas early to mid morning, otherwise a sunny start elsewhere then a sun and passing clouds. Highs 35-42. Wind NW increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 12-19. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 28-35. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Lows 17-24. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Overcast. Snow arrives by late morning, transitions to sleet / freezing rain north & sleet / rain south before tapering off at day’s end. Snow / sleet accumulation coating to 1 inch South Coast, 1 to 3 inches elsewhere, with a few 3+ inch amounts potentially north central MA and southwestern NH. Highs 30-37 north & west / 38-45 south & east by late day. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts in some coastal locations.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Watch for black ice formation on untreated surfaces that have been cleared of snow and sleet. Lows 23-30. Wind variable to NW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 16-23. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Chance of snow at night. Highs 27-34. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 9-13)

February 9 storm system looks somewhat similar to this Thursday’s, but will fine-tune the details in coming updates. Next round of unsettled weather comes in the February 11-13 window – snow/mix likely and rain possible for part of the region, but a long way to go to fine-tune this one.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 14-18)

Another early to mid period precipitation event potential as the active pattern continues.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 3-7)

We’ll be in an active weather pattern with lots to keep track of, so let’s do that! The latest low pressure area to impact the region dumped a solid coating to a few inches of snow on the region overnight, with the warm front extending from the low the reason. That front passes this morning and we end up with a relatively mild and fair day, but late day or evening a few rain showers are possible as the low’s cold front swings through from northwest to southeast. High pressure building into the Great Lakes and the aforementioned low in Atlantic Canada Tuesday means fair but breezy, colder weather for Tuesday. High pressure builds right over the region Tuesday night and Wednesday with fair, more tranquil, but cold weather. The next low pressure comes our way via the Ohio Valley on Thursday, its track far enough north and west that we’ll have warming aloft after initially cold enough air for the system to start as snow. We’ll then be looking at a transition to sleet and/or freezing rain / liquid rain depending on location and details of the temperature profile. Highest probability of non-freezing rain are in coastal areas, with the icy stuff more likely the further inland and elevated you go. Those details will be sorted out in the next few updates. Regardless of those, the system departs and another high pressure area brings fair weather back to the region for Friday.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. A late-day rain shower possible central MA and southern NH. Highs 38-45. Wind S to SW increasing to 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy with passing rain showers possible in the evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 30-37 (watch for black ice where temperatures are near to below freezing). Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 12-19. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 28-35. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Lows 21-28. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Overcast. Snow/ice/rain likely. Highs 33-40 northern areas, 40-47 southern areas. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 23-30. Wind variable to NW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 8-12)

Potential to likely unsettled events late February 8 into February 9, again later in the period, as the pattern will be active. Frozen precipitation chances are high with these.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 13-17)

Another early to mid period precipitation event potential as the active pattern continues.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 2-6)

It’s Groundhog Day … again … and before I start reciting more lines from the movie I’ll just tell you, in case you missed it, that Phil saw his shadow this morning down there in Punxsutawney PA, which means, according to legend, that there are six more weeks of winter to endure. Correct or not, I can look ahead and see a pretty active wintertime pattern ahead for us, but that means a lot of changes, some up and down temperatures, and an increase in unsettled weather after a fairly benign though often cold January. If you are venturing outside this morning, you’ll see your shadow in 99% of the region, as there are some ocean-effect clouds across Cape Cod and at times flirting with the MA South Shore. Even a few snowflakes can fall from these clouds early on today, but they will drift offshore and dissipate soon as high pressure builds over the region. Another thing you’ll have to watch out for if going outside this morning, in fact much of today, is icy non-treated surfaces. Your shadow will also start to fade as the day goes on, in response to increasing high cloudiness from west to east across the region. This comes in advance of a low pressure area that will pass to our north Monday. Its warm front will send a slug of snow through the region tonight, steadiest from the I-90 belt northward. To the south the precipitation pattern will be more patchy and even some rain can end up mixed in along the South Coast as warmer air moves into the region. We’ll be in this warm sector with a southerly air flow and lots of clouds Monday, before a cold front brings a potential rain shower and a definite wind shift Monday evening. During Tuesday, a gusty northwesterly breeze will usher in colder air but with fair weather, as the low exits via Atlantic Canada. High pressure sits over the region Wednesday with dry, cold weather, before low pressure moves our way from the southwest for Thursday bringing a variety of precipitation. The finer details of that system will be figured out over the next few days. Early leaning: Snow to ice to rain for the region in general, but a colder scenario cannot be ruled out.

TODAY: Sunny start / cloudy finish. Highs 27-34. Wind N 5-15 MPH Cape Cod early, otherwise variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. A period of snow, steadiest I-90 belt northward with 1/2 to 2 inches and spot 3 inches possible, less steady to the south with under 1/2 inch and also may mix with rain South Coast before ending pre-dawn. Lows 20-27 early, then rising to 28-35. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. A late-day rain shower possible. Highs 38-45. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH, a few higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. A passing snow shower possible. Lows 23-30. Wind shifting to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 12-19. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 28-35. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Lows 21-28. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Overcast. Snow/ice/rain likely. Highs 32-39. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 7-11)

Potential to likely unsettled events late February 8 into February 9, again late in the period, as the pattern will be active. Frozen precipitation chances are high with these.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 12-16)

Another mid period precipitation event potential as the active pattern continues.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 1-5)

The first month of 2025 is in the books, and it will be remembered as an overall cold and dry month. However, late month gave us a glimpse of the pattern that’s going to be dominant as we head through the first half of February, and that is one that puts us in path of Pacific storm systems that ride a border between a very cold Canada and a milder US Southeast. There will be a lot of systems to track and detail going forward, with a wide range of possibilities on the table, but first it’s time to pull in and focus on the first five days of the month. Today, we have some lingering snowflakes falling in eastern sections, behind yesterday’s departing low pressure area. This was mainly a rain event, but last night, colder air working in from the north flipped it to snow in much of the region, early enough for up to a couple inches in southern NH and parts of northern MA, and generally under an inch in the Route 2 corridor, with just patchy dustings to the south of there, at most. It’s not the snow amount that’s the issue for today. As we bring in dry air, we also bring in an arctic air mass with falling temperatures, so any wetter surfaces are going to freeze up quickly, and remain so through the weekend if left untreated. Tonight and Sunday, sublimation will help get rid of thinner ice coatings, but don’t take that for granted if you have to drive or walk anywhere during the next couple days. As for weather, I mentioned dry air comes in, and high pressure builds over the region tonight, which will be “wicked cold”, and then tomorrow the high slides to the east and after a very cold morning it recovers a little bit. However, the pattern is active, the next low pressure system, a quasi-clipper, will be tracking north of our region from late Sunday to late Monday. This process will send a warm front through the region Sunday night, with a batch of accumulating snow for much of the region – not a big event, but enough that some shovels and brooms will be needed. The South Coast will be mild enough to see some rain mixed in with this portion of the event. Monday we get into the warm sector of the low and it’ll be quite mild, with high temps well into the 40s. This will take care of most of the snow that fell and any lingering icy patches from our most recent event. A rain shower may visit some areas later in the day as a cold front swings through from northwest to southeast. This may be followed by a snow shower later at night wandering down from the mountains to our north as colder air returns. High pressure building into the Great Lakes brings us a chilly, breezy Tuesday. By Wednesday, this high will work its way into southeastern Canada and we’ll see the early stages of the “battle zone” pattern setting up. Some guidance is more aggressive with the next system, bringing snow/mix/rain into southern New England during Wednesday, while other guidance is a little slower with this process, just sending clouds in on Wednesday but holding the precipitation off. It’s not atypical to see this differences in the guidance at this range for this type of a set-up. For this update, I’ll forecast increasing clouds for day 5, and mention a snow/mix chance at night, but keep in mind that the time frame can be moved up, or back, as I monitor the guidance and overall set-up the next few days…

TODAY: Cloudy start with some lingering snow flurries in eastern MA, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 26-33 by midday, then falling through the 20s. Wind N to NW increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 3-10 inland, 10-17 coast. Wind diminishing to calm.

SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 27-34. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. A period of snow with accumulation of a coating to 2 inches mainly from the I-90 belt northward, and a few snow/mix/rain showers to the south. Lows 20-27 early, then rising into the 30s. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. A late-day rain shower possible. Highs 42-49. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH, a few higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. A passing snow shower possible. Lows 23-30. Wind shifting to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 11-18. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow/mix at night. Highs 28-35. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 6-10)

Active pattern mentioned above delivers unsettled weather February 6 and again sometime in the February 8-9 time frame. A wide variety of outcomes exists, but early leaning is snow to mix to rain with the first system and a “colder” second system.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 11-15)

We should hear from the next storm system before the end of this period as the pattern remains active. This pattern doesn’t feature powerful storms, but more frequent overrunning type events with longer-durations and higher than average potential for icing to be involved.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 31 – FEBRUARY 4)

A wave of low pressure passing to our south today and tonight will send a ribbon of precipitation into our region. I do think the surface temperatures will be sufficiently above freezing enough and it will have warmed enough aloft to avoid any snow / ice at the start, with a late enough onset of precipitation, so that arrives as rain for pretty much the entire region this afternoon into the evening, but then colder air will filter back down from the north, and we’ll see precipitation change to snow (where it’s heavy enough) and freezing drizzle (where it’s lighter) from north to south during the hours that its also getting set to taper off / move out of the region. But this will occur with enough time left for a minor snowfall accumulation and some spotty areas of icing (where the freezing drizzle falls or a melt/freeze process takes place). While the precipitation exits by about dawn Saturday, the icy conditions it leaves behind will linger, so be aware of that if venturing out to start the weekend. Treatment / sun / sublimation will do their things to mitigate this during the day Saturday and again Sunday, but watch for lingering icy spots where this does not take place! As for the weather, fair, cold weather returns for Saturday as high pressure builds in. A very cold night Saturday night will result from high pressure overhead. The high then slides off to the east and a clipper low approaches later Sunday, and much like the Tuesday night / Wednesday system we’ll see a burst of snow with its warm front, get into its warm sector on Monday, then see some rain/mix showers later Monday with its cold front crossing the area. This will then return fair and colder weather to the region Tuesday.

TODAY: Cloudy. Rain arrives midday-afternoon southwest to northeast. Fog develops and can become dense. Highs 37-44. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Rain in the evening, changing to snow and freezing drizzle from north to south as it gradually tapers off from west to east overnight, with some glazing, and snow accumulation of scattered coatings to 1/2 inch South of I-90, 1/2 to 2 inches I-90 northward, with the 1-2 inch amounts most likely in northern MA and southern NH where it snows longer. Watch for black ice on snowless surfaces. Lows 20-27. Wind variable becoming N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy eastern areas at dawn, otherwise sun/cloud mix. Highs 26-33. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH, a few higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 3-10 inland, 10-17 coast. Wind calm.

SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 27-34. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of snow, may end as a snow/rain mix. Lows 20-27 early, then rising into the 30s. Wind variable to S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a rain shower, maybe snow/rain mix well north and west by late-day. Highs 41-48. Wind S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to NW late-day from northwest to southeast.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. A stray snow flurry possible. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 5-9)

Next low pressure system looks like a snow to rain event for the region in the February 5-6 time window, with details TBD. Another storm system potential, favoring a snow/mix solution for the February 8-9 weekend.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 10-14)

Busy pattern brings one more storm threat by mid period. Variable temperatures, no extremes indicated.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 30 – FEBRUARY 3)

We’re in a pattern with a lot of changes, but no big storms. Yesterday’s fluffy snow was replaced with a relatively mild day which erased what fell, then a cold front brought some rain and snow showers to the region to return wind and cold to the region last night, and while the wind will be less gusty today it’ll be a cold day with dry weather as high pressure moves in. But things keep on moving and Friday’s weather will be impacted by an elongated area of low pressure moving through. This time, the air is to be mild enough that much of the region sees a light rain event, but there can be some snow/mix to start this early Friday and some additional frozen stuff at the end on Friday night. This is followed by a chilly and mainly dry weekend, but by late Sunday the next system heads our way via the Great Lakes with clouds and a potential for a light snowfall by Sunday night. Similar to the system we had yesterday, this system looks like it’s low center will pass just to our north, so Monday ends up as a milder day with a chance of a few rain showers before the cold air makes a return.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 23-30. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts in the morning.

TONIGHT: Clouding up. Lows 12-19 evening, rising through 20s overnight. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Rain arrives by midday, may start as snow/mix north of I-90. Highs 36-43. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy evening with rain and pockets of freezing rain, potentially turning to sleet/snow before ending, with a minor accumulation possible. Areas of smooth black ice become likely where there is no frozen precipitation accumulation. Lows 20-27. Wind variable to N increasing to 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 27-34. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 15-22. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 27-34. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of snow, may end as a snow/rain mix. Lows 20-27 early, then rising into the 30s. Wind variable to S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a rain shower. Highs 41-48. Wind S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 4-8)

Dry, colder February 4. Watching for a wave of low pressure to pass by quickly with maybe a period of snow briefly on February 5. Another unsettled episode with rain/mix/snow possible later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 9-13)

Pattern features a battle zone between cold weather to our north and a milder set-up to our south. This leaves our region vulnerable to unsettled weather on a frequent basis with variable temperatures.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 29 – FEBRUARY 2)

A batch of snow crossed the region overnight, generated by a warm front ahead of a clipper low pressure system. This low is passing just north of the WHW forecast area today and will drive its cold front through the region this afternoon, triggered showers of rain and snow, some of which may be strong enough to produce lightning and thunder. Wherever these visit, reduced visibility and strong wind gusts can occur, but they will be short-lived. Behind the front, cold air rushes back in after a milder interlude today, and a surviving Great Lakes snow plume may bring another snow shower to parts of the region tonight. This will be followed by fair but cold weather Thursday as a bubble of high pressure moves across the region. The windy weather of tonight will ease Thursday though. As mentioned in the previous discussion, things are moving quickly in the atmosphere, and the next low pressure system moves in on Friday, bringing enough of a warm up so even if areas start as snow, it turns into a mainly rain event, but as this elongated low is pulling away, enough cold air lingering just to the north will start to filter in, and the precipitation can end as a mix or snow in some areas, especially southern NH and northern MA, Friday evening and night. Saturday will feature fair and colder weather with high pressure moving in. But then the next low pressure area in the series moves our way Sunday. This system looks somewhat similar to the one we are involved with today, with clouds moving back in leading to a chance of some snow or snow showers by later Sunday. Some fine-tuning will have to be done to that part of the forecast…

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Rain and snow showers west to east early to mid afternoon, a few of which can contain lightning and thunder. Highs 36-43. Wind S up to 10 MPH early, shifting to W and increasing to 15-25 MPH with higher gusts, then shifting to NW late-day.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy with a chance of a passing snow shower, then clearing before dawn. Lows 11-18. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, gusts 30+ MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 23-30. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts in the morning.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Lows 12-19 evening, rising through 20s overnight. Wind N shifting to E up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Snow/mix changing to rain. Highs 36-43. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with rain ending, possibly as brief mix/snow especially north, during the evening. Clearing overnight. Areas of black ice. Lows 20-27. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 27-34. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 15-22. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Late-day snow or snow showers possible. Highs 27-34. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 3-7)

Briefly milder February 3 with rain showers possible during the day. Fair, colder February 4. During the February 5-7 period we’ll have to start watching for ripples of low pressure moving along a boundary to our south with potentials for snow/mix – highest potential toward the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 8-12)

Pattern features a battle zone between cold weather to our north and a milder set-up to our south. This leaves our region vulnerable to unsettled weather from systems impossible to time or detail this far in advance. Overview: Unsettled potential, variable temperatures.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 28 – FEBRUARY 1)

A cold front moves through the region this morning to midday with a broken line of snow showers and possible heavier snow squalls, which can briefly reduce visibility and drop a quick, ground-slickening coating of snow. This moves on and the rest of the day is dry, windy, and cold with some sunshine returning. Clouds quickly come back this evening and thicken up tonight ahead of a clipper low. This low center, slightly elongated, will pass just north of the WHW forecast area, but a burst of snow with its warm front will cause a small accumulation overnight. It’s cold front will trigger rain and snow showers Wednesday afternoon, leading in a shot of arctic air for Thursday, with dry weather and a biting wind. But this pattern is one where nothing hangs around, and the storm that I’d been watching for the weekend is going to waste no time heading our way, bringing unsettled weather for the final day of January on Friday. Significant enough warm advection with this system means that it should be a mainly rain event for our region, though may start as snow for at least a portion of the area. But it moves along too, and fair, windy, colder weather will greet us for the first day of February on Saturday, behind it.

TODAY: Lots of clouds with a passing snow shower or snow squall in the morning. Plenty of sun midday on. Highs 31-38 by midday, then falling into 20s. Wind SW shifting to NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clouding over. Snow of a coating to 2 inches from I-90 northward overnight with more scattered snow and some dustings / coatings to the south. Lows 13-20 except 20-27 South Coast. Wind N 5-15 MPH and gusty early, becoming variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy start with snow ending early, then a sun/cloud mix with additional rain showers (south) and snow showers (north) in the afternoon. Highs 32-39. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming W 5-15 MPH, shifting to NW with higher gusts later in the day.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 11-18. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 23-30. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Lows 12-19 evening, rising through 20s overnight. Wind N shifting to E up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Snow/mix changing to rain. Highs 35-42. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Rain ending evening followed by clearing. Areas of black ice. Lows 20-27. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 27-34. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 2-6)

Clipper low brings snow or snow shower chance February 2 into February 3, and turning windy again with more cold air. Next storm threat is later in the period with snow/mix potential.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 7-11)

Active pattern with a couple unsettled weather opportunities. Temperatures variable – not far from normal.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 27-31)

The final 5 days of the first month of 2025 are upon us and as I try to forecast them on this morning’s update, I find the confidence level goes from high to low fairly quickly as we progress through time. Here’s what I know is most likely, and then what I think will take place moving forward. Today will be a bright, breezy day as we sit in a westerly air flow between Canadian low pressure and an area of high pressure to our south. While it won’t be that cold by late January standards, the breeze will give the air a bite. A sharp cold front trailing the aforementioned Canadian low will dive southeastward through our region Tuesday morning as that low pulls east to the eastward into Atlantic Canada. This front can cause a snow shower or heavier snow squall as it moves through the region between sunrise and late morning, northwest to southeast. Any areas that get these can see a short-lived but significant reduction in visibility from falling / blowing snow, and a quick coating that can slicken up untreated surfaces quickly. Fair, windy weather follows that front, with falling temperatures. Quick on the heels of this system is a clipper low, which moves our way via the Great Lakes Wednesday. I do think the track of this low will take it right across our region, probably a little bit north of I-90, and it will be slightly elongated in orientation, with a bit of a warm frontal snow burst initially, starting pre-dawn to early morning Wednesday. This is where most of the accumulation of a coating to 2 inches will occur. The 1 and 2 inch snow amounts are most likely in northern MA and southern NH, with under 1 inch from the I-90 belt southward as my expectation. There should be a quick taper off of the steadier snow, followed by a passing snow shower potential in the afternoon as a trough / elongated back side of this low passes through. It may have even warmed up enough during the day to make these showers in the form of rain closer to the South Coast. Regardless, behind this system comes a one-day shot of arctic air along with wind for Thusrday. Get ready for that shock to the system! But it doesn’t last long, with the cold easing a little bit and much less wind for Friday. This is where the uncertainty level regarding the next storm threat grows. Most recent medium range guidance varies in its timing of this system, with the quicker guidance bringing it in during the day / evening on Friday, and slower guidance holding it off so Friday is a dry day. I’m playing the middle ground on today’s update, with my forecast calling for increasing clouds ahead of the system, but stay tuned for updates as this event’s timing becomes easier to pin down.

TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 32-39. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Lots of clouds with a passing snow shower or snow squall in the morning. Plenty of sun midday on. Highs 31-38 by midday, then falling into 20s. Wind SW shifting to NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear early, then rapidly clouding over. Snow arriving pre-dawn especially I-90 belt northward. Lows 13-20. Wind N 5-15 MPH and gusty early, becoming variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy morning with 1/2 to 2 inches of snow I-90 belt northward while areas to the south see snow showers with some coatings. Variably cloudy midday on with an additional snow shower or squall possible to the north, snow or rain shower to the south. Highs 32-39. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming W 5-15 MPH, shifting to NW with higher gusts later in the day.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 11-18. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 23-30. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 10-17. Wind N diminishing to under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 30-37. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 1-5)

Unsettled weather February 1-2 weekend – details TBD. Fair, cold thereafter.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 6-10)

Active pattern with a couple unsettled weather opportunities. Temperatures variable – not far from normal.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 26-30)

“A veritable heatwave!”, as a former local TV meteorologist used to say, was the phrase that came to mind at sunrise today when I’d looked at the observations and saw the temperature had gone up as much as 10 degrees in some parts of southern New England since midnight. This is in response to a relatively mild southwesterly air flow ahead of a trough. This trough may produce a couple snow flurries in the region today, otherwise its approach and passage will feature a gusty breeze but less cold than recent days have offered. This “less cold” feel will persist on Monday as well, but it will come with a price – even more wind, as the pressure gradient tightens up between a large eastward-moving Canadian low pressure area and an area of high pressure off to the south. But Monday’s weather will be dry. Tuesday, some changes happen quickly as a sharp cold front passes by. Timing on this feature seems to be sooner-rather-than-later on all available guidance, so I’m leaning toward morning-midday for the potential for passing snow showers and a possible heavier snow squall, a wind shift to northwest, some decent wind gusts, and a colder feel to the air during the day as a new air mass arrives from Canada. This one won’t have the bite of the recent one, but will still feature a return to below normal temperatures. This sets the state for a short-lived unsettled weather event Wednesday as a clipper low moves quickly across the Northeast via Canada and the Great Lakes. I’m still in the process of pinning down the exact track of the low pressure center, because that will determine who sees a period of accumulating snow (light to potentially borderline moderate amounts) and who sees just a few snow showers, maybe even mix/rain showers (south). These details will be available on tomorrow morning’s update, but check the comments section during the day today for some potential thoughts as I gather more data / guidance during the day. Whatever that system brings, it’s out of here by evening on Wednesday, and high pressure builds this way with fair, cold weather Thursday.

TODAY: An overcast start to the day South Coast / MA South Shore areas. Otherwise, sun/cloud mix. Chance of a passing snow flurry midday on. Highs 32-39. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to W.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Highs 31-38. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Lows 19-26. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy morning-midday with snow showers likely and a possible heavier snow squall, then partly to mostly sunny thereafter. Highs 28-35 by mid morning, then falling back into / through the 20s gradually. Wind W shifting to NW 15-25 mph, gusts 25-45 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear evening. Clouding up overnight. Lows 15-22. Wind N 10-20 MPH early, diminishing.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow or snow showers except possibly rain/snow showers South Coast. Highs 28-35. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 12-19. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 26-33. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 31 – FEBRUARY 4)

Fair, cold weather January 31. Unsettled weather potential increases during the February 1-2 weekend – medium range guidance inconsistent on what takes place, but meteorologically I’m leaning toward a cold scenario with strung out low pressure to the south and cold high pressure to the north, bringing a chance of snow/mix. While some guidance has this lingering beyond, I lean toward a fair weather scenario for February 3-4 with below normal temperatures.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 5-9)

A mid-period unsettled / storm potential between episodes of dry weather. Temperatures variable – not far from normal overall.