DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 28 – FEBRUARY 1)

A cold front moves through the region this morning to midday with a broken line of snow showers and possible heavier snow squalls, which can briefly reduce visibility and drop a quick, ground-slickening coating of snow. This moves on and the rest of the day is dry, windy, and cold with some sunshine returning. Clouds quickly come back this evening and thicken up tonight ahead of a clipper low. This low center, slightly elongated, will pass just north of the WHW forecast area, but a burst of snow with its warm front will cause a small accumulation overnight. It’s cold front will trigger rain and snow showers Wednesday afternoon, leading in a shot of arctic air for Thursday, with dry weather and a biting wind. But this pattern is one where nothing hangs around, and the storm that I’d been watching for the weekend is going to waste no time heading our way, bringing unsettled weather for the final day of January on Friday. Significant enough warm advection with this system means that it should be a mainly rain event for our region, though may start as snow for at least a portion of the area. But it moves along too, and fair, windy, colder weather will greet us for the first day of February on Saturday, behind it.

TODAY: Lots of clouds with a passing snow shower or snow squall in the morning. Plenty of sun midday on. Highs 31-38 by midday, then falling into 20s. Wind SW shifting to NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clouding over. Snow of a coating to 2 inches from I-90 northward overnight with more scattered snow and some dustings / coatings to the south. Lows 13-20 except 20-27 South Coast. Wind N 5-15 MPH and gusty early, becoming variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy start with snow ending early, then a sun/cloud mix with additional rain showers (south) and snow showers (north) in the afternoon. Highs 32-39. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming W 5-15 MPH, shifting to NW with higher gusts later in the day.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 11-18. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 23-30. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Lows 12-19 evening, rising through 20s overnight. Wind N shifting to E up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Snow/mix changing to rain. Highs 35-42. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Rain ending evening followed by clearing. Areas of black ice. Lows 20-27. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 27-34. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 2-6)

Clipper low brings snow or snow shower chance February 2 into February 3, and turning windy again with more cold air. Next storm threat is later in the period with snow/mix potential.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 7-11)

Active pattern with a couple unsettled weather opportunities. Temperatures variable – not far from normal.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 27-31)

The final 5 days of the first month of 2025 are upon us and as I try to forecast them on this morning’s update, I find the confidence level goes from high to low fairly quickly as we progress through time. Here’s what I know is most likely, and then what I think will take place moving forward. Today will be a bright, breezy day as we sit in a westerly air flow between Canadian low pressure and an area of high pressure to our south. While it won’t be that cold by late January standards, the breeze will give the air a bite. A sharp cold front trailing the aforementioned Canadian low will dive southeastward through our region Tuesday morning as that low pulls east to the eastward into Atlantic Canada. This front can cause a snow shower or heavier snow squall as it moves through the region between sunrise and late morning, northwest to southeast. Any areas that get these can see a short-lived but significant reduction in visibility from falling / blowing snow, and a quick coating that can slicken up untreated surfaces quickly. Fair, windy weather follows that front, with falling temperatures. Quick on the heels of this system is a clipper low, which moves our way via the Great Lakes Wednesday. I do think the track of this low will take it right across our region, probably a little bit north of I-90, and it will be slightly elongated in orientation, with a bit of a warm frontal snow burst initially, starting pre-dawn to early morning Wednesday. This is where most of the accumulation of a coating to 2 inches will occur. The 1 and 2 inch snow amounts are most likely in northern MA and southern NH, with under 1 inch from the I-90 belt southward as my expectation. There should be a quick taper off of the steadier snow, followed by a passing snow shower potential in the afternoon as a trough / elongated back side of this low passes through. It may have even warmed up enough during the day to make these showers in the form of rain closer to the South Coast. Regardless, behind this system comes a one-day shot of arctic air along with wind for Thusrday. Get ready for that shock to the system! But it doesn’t last long, with the cold easing a little bit and much less wind for Friday. This is where the uncertainty level regarding the next storm threat grows. Most recent medium range guidance varies in its timing of this system, with the quicker guidance bringing it in during the day / evening on Friday, and slower guidance holding it off so Friday is a dry day. I’m playing the middle ground on today’s update, with my forecast calling for increasing clouds ahead of the system, but stay tuned for updates as this event’s timing becomes easier to pin down.

TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 32-39. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Lots of clouds with a passing snow shower or snow squall in the morning. Plenty of sun midday on. Highs 31-38 by midday, then falling into 20s. Wind SW shifting to NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear early, then rapidly clouding over. Snow arriving pre-dawn especially I-90 belt northward. Lows 13-20. Wind N 5-15 MPH and gusty early, becoming variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy morning with 1/2 to 2 inches of snow I-90 belt northward while areas to the south see snow showers with some coatings. Variably cloudy midday on with an additional snow shower or squall possible to the north, snow or rain shower to the south. Highs 32-39. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming W 5-15 MPH, shifting to NW with higher gusts later in the day.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 11-18. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 23-30. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 10-17. Wind N diminishing to under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 30-37. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 1-5)

Unsettled weather February 1-2 weekend – details TBD. Fair, cold thereafter.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 6-10)

Active pattern with a couple unsettled weather opportunities. Temperatures variable – not far from normal.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 26-30)

“A veritable heatwave!”, as a former local TV meteorologist used to say, was the phrase that came to mind at sunrise today when I’d looked at the observations and saw the temperature had gone up as much as 10 degrees in some parts of southern New England since midnight. This is in response to a relatively mild southwesterly air flow ahead of a trough. This trough may produce a couple snow flurries in the region today, otherwise its approach and passage will feature a gusty breeze but less cold than recent days have offered. This “less cold” feel will persist on Monday as well, but it will come with a price – even more wind, as the pressure gradient tightens up between a large eastward-moving Canadian low pressure area and an area of high pressure off to the south. But Monday’s weather will be dry. Tuesday, some changes happen quickly as a sharp cold front passes by. Timing on this feature seems to be sooner-rather-than-later on all available guidance, so I’m leaning toward morning-midday for the potential for passing snow showers and a possible heavier snow squall, a wind shift to northwest, some decent wind gusts, and a colder feel to the air during the day as a new air mass arrives from Canada. This one won’t have the bite of the recent one, but will still feature a return to below normal temperatures. This sets the state for a short-lived unsettled weather event Wednesday as a clipper low moves quickly across the Northeast via Canada and the Great Lakes. I’m still in the process of pinning down the exact track of the low pressure center, because that will determine who sees a period of accumulating snow (light to potentially borderline moderate amounts) and who sees just a few snow showers, maybe even mix/rain showers (south). These details will be available on tomorrow morning’s update, but check the comments section during the day today for some potential thoughts as I gather more data / guidance during the day. Whatever that system brings, it’s out of here by evening on Wednesday, and high pressure builds this way with fair, cold weather Thursday.

TODAY: An overcast start to the day South Coast / MA South Shore areas. Otherwise, sun/cloud mix. Chance of a passing snow flurry midday on. Highs 32-39. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to W.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Highs 31-38. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Lows 19-26. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy morning-midday with snow showers likely and a possible heavier snow squall, then partly to mostly sunny thereafter. Highs 28-35 by mid morning, then falling back into / through the 20s gradually. Wind W shifting to NW 15-25 mph, gusts 25-45 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear evening. Clouding up overnight. Lows 15-22. Wind N 10-20 MPH early, diminishing.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow or snow showers except possibly rain/snow showers South Coast. Highs 28-35. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 12-19. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 26-33. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 31 – FEBRUARY 4)

Fair, cold weather January 31. Unsettled weather potential increases during the February 1-2 weekend – medium range guidance inconsistent on what takes place, but meteorologically I’m leaning toward a cold scenario with strung out low pressure to the south and cold high pressure to the north, bringing a chance of snow/mix. While some guidance has this lingering beyond, I lean toward a fair weather scenario for February 3-4 with below normal temperatures.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 5-9)

A mid-period unsettled / storm potential between episodes of dry weather. Temperatures variable – not far from normal overall.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 25-29)

Today will feature fair and cold weather as a weak area of high pressure dominates the region. A mid level disturbance and warm front will cross the region tonight, bringing some cloudiness, which will persist into Sunday morning especially to the south. This signals a warm up, in relative terms, for Sunday and Monday, when temperatures get back to seasonal for 2 days. Low pressure passing by to the north may help trigger a few snow flurries as its trough swings through on Sunday afternoon. With a tighter pressure gradient between Canadian low pressure and high pressure to the south, you’ll notice the wind becoming more of a factor again as we move through the “milder” days. Then a stronger low center moving through eastern Canada on Tuesday will really pack the gradient tightly and make Tuesday a windier day. In addition, a sharp cold front trailing this low will swing southward through the region and trigger snow showers or snow squalls. It’s too early to say if these will be scattered or in the form of a line, but if the latter is the case, a quite widespread burst of visibility-reducing snow could occur. Monitoring trend on this. Colder air arrives behind that front, regardless, and a clipper low pressure system comes racing along out of Canada on Wednesday to give the region a period of unsettled weather. The track of that clipper will determine the details. A track further north would result in a few snow/mix showers, while a track further south would bring a general light to borderline moderate snowfall. In-between scenarios are also possible, and the low’s track can be pinned down and fine-tuned in the days ahead, so don’t read too much into run-to-run details if you follow models. About 24 to 30 hours ahead with the help of high resolution short range guidance we can detail it much better.

TODAY: Sunshine, filtered at times by high clouds during the afternoon. Highs 25-32. Wind W to SW up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 18-25. Wind SW up to 15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Limited sun morning, especially I-90 belt to South Coast, then more sun but passing clouds that can produce a brief snow flurry. Highs 32-39. Wind SW to W up to 15 MPH with higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Highs 31-38. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Lows 19-26. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of a snow shower or squall. Highs 33-40. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to N by late.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear evening. Clouding up overnight. Lows 15-22. Wind N 10-20 MPH, diminishing.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow or snow showers except possibly rain/snow showers South Coast. Highs 28-35. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 30 – FEBRUARY 3)

Fair, cold weather January 30-31. A window of opportunity exists for unsettled weather during the first few days of February – details TBD – with a slight temperature moderation.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 4-8)

A fair weather start, and another window of opportunity for storminess follows. Temperatures variable / no extremes indicated.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 24-28)

Our temperature pattern will be a little less cold but still near to below normal for late January through this weekend and early next week. While we lack major storms to talk about, we do have several things to keep track of over the coming days. A weak area of high pressure will bring fair and cold weather to our region today and Saturday – slightly colder Saturday than today. Light wind will make the near to slightly below normal temperatures feel “nice” for late January in comparison to the deep freeze of earlier this week. Sunday, the wind will pick up with the approach and passage of a trough from the northwest. This system will have little moisture to with and therefore only a passing light snow shower is possible. By Monday and Tuesday, the wind will be more persistent and gusty, and while our air temperature moderates slightly, the wind will make it feel colder. This pattern will result from high pressure across the southern US while a large low pressure area moves from central to eastern Canada. The latter will drive a cold front southward into New England later Tuesday, and this can trigger a snow shower or even a snow squall at some point. This being day 5 in the forecast it’s impossible to talk about timing yet.

TODAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 30-37. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 15-22. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 26-33. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 17-24. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a light snow shower. Highs 32-39. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Highs 31-38. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Lows 19-26. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of a snow shower or squall, more likely late than early. Highs 33-40. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to N by late.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 29 – FEBRUARY 2)

Colder weather returns middle to late next week to round out January. Watching for a clipper low to bring a chance of snow or snow showers January 29 and high pressure to bring fair weather January 30 and 31. February 1-2 weekend is seasonably chilly but also carries a storm threat.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 3-7)

Another storm threat later in this period after a fair weather interlude. Temperatures not far from normal.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 23-27)

We now bid goodbye to the coldest of the air we’ve had, but not to the overall cold pattern, because more surges are mustering in Canada. Prior to hearing from those though, we do get a slight temperature moderation today, and a slightly more notable one (back to normal) on Friday, before a little set-back Saturday and a slight recovery Sunday. Low pressure passing to our south and a mid level disturbance keep clouds abundant for part of today. More sun on Friday will result from an area of high pressure nosing in from the southwest. A dry trough passage at night brings slightly colder weather Saturday but with continued dry conditions. After that, a pair of disturbances bring snow shower opportunities both Sunday and Monday, though neither of these will likely deliver anything overly notable in terms of snowfall, but they will start knocking us back into deeper cold again.

TODAY: Clouds gradually give way to sun. Highs 25-32. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 11-18. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 30-37. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 15-22. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 26-33. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 17-24. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers. Highs 32-39. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. A snow shower possible early. Lows 15-22. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. A few snow showers possible in the afternoon. Highs 31-38. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 28 – FEBRUARY 1)

Clipper system brings another snow shower chance and a reinforcement of cold air early in the period. Watching the end of January / start of February period for another system with a mix/snow threat.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 2-6)

Near to below normal temperatures. Pattern more unsettled with storm potentials start of and end of period.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 22-26)

The deep freeze continues today – probably the coldest daytime hours of the stretch, but again not too much wind will make it slightly more tolerable to be outside if you must be. A blanket of clouds comes in tonight in response to a mid level disturbance, and that will prevent the temperature from falling as low as it did last night. Clouds depart during Thursday as dry air returns and a low pressure area I’d once been watching as a threat passes well out to our south at night. High pressure to the southwest noses in with fair weather and a moderation in temperature Friday and Saturday, before a cold front swings in with a chance of a few snow showers on Sunday.

TODAY: Cape Cod clouds and maybe a snow flurry this morning, otherwise mostly sunny. Highs 15-22. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouds return. Lows 7-14. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Limited sun morning / abundant sun afternoon. Highs 25-32. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 11-18. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 30-37. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 15-22. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. 31-38. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 17-24. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers. Highs 32-39. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 27-31)

Overall trend is dry with near to below normal temperatures but have to keep an eye on moisture / disturbances both south and north for any interaction (eyeing January 27 and the last couple days of the month).

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 1-5)

Near to below normal temperatures. Pattern may turn more unsettled.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 21-25)

We’ll be in the deep freeze for two days before we see that ease up later this week. I eye a storm track to our south. A little adjustment on this thinking has me here to tell you the wave passing south of us in the early hours will likely be close enough to deliver a little bit of light snow to the South Coast and the second one later in the week looks more like a “stay-offshore” system, but can still be close enough for some minor impact in southeastern areas.

TODAY: Sun gives way to clouds. Highs 13-20. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A period of light snow expected on the South Coast with accumulation under 1 inch. Lows 0-7 except 7-14 South Coast. Wind N under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun returns. Highs 13-20. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 2-9. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clouds increase. Lows 10-17. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow far southeastern areas. Highs 25-32. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 11-18. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. 27-34. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 26-30)

Disturbance brings a snow shower threat January 26. Fair, seasonably cold weather follows.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 31 – FEBRUARY 4)

Eyeing an end-of-January or first-of-February snow potential, then fair. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 20-24)

A storm deposited anywhere from a solid coating of snow on Cape Cod to a half foot of snow over the I-95 belt westward last night, and now it’s onto the arctic invasion for the next few days with generally dry weather. One storm will go out to sea southeast of New England Wednesday, and we’ll have to watch another one later in the week as the arctic air departs but it stays cold for the potential to deliver some snow to southeastern areas.

TODAY (MLK JR DAY): Sun/cloud mix. Slight chance of passing snow showers in the afternoon. Highs 25-32 early, then falling through 20s. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 3-10. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 13-20. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 0-7. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and high clouds. A band of lower clouds and snow shower possible Outer Cape Cod. Highs 15-22. Wind N 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH Cape Cod / Nantucket.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 2-9. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clouds increase. Lows 10-17. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow southeastern areas. Highs 25-32. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 25-29)

Fair weather start to weekend January 25, snow shower threat to end it January 26. Fair, cold weather follows.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 30 – FEBRUARY 3)

Eyeing an end-of-January or first-of-February snow potential, then fair. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 19-23)

Early morning warning! If you are about to step outside and it’s before 9:00 a.m., watch for patches of black ice where moisture from yesterday’s rain and overnight fog has frozen on some surfaces as the sky cleared and temperature fell to freezing or below in many locations. This will improve quickly as the sun rises and the temperature heads back above freezing on the journey to today’s relatively mild high temperatures (upper 30s to lower 40s). Any remaining fog patches dissipate early as well, and we’ll have sunshine for a while, but mid and high level clouds will quickly be on the increase later this morning, leading to an overcast afternoon, capping the temperature rise as we cut off the solar heating and also start to feel the arrival of a colder air mass from west to east across the region, albeit slowly at first. At the same time, a wave of low pressure currently in the US Southeast will be on a quick northeastward journey and will be passing off our coast tonight and first thing Monday morning, while intensifying. This low pressure system will bring a quick-hitting but significant snow event to most of the region. Milder air in place at the onset means that it starts as rain for a good portion of southeastern MA and RI to southeastern CT (basically the MA South Shore to the New England South Coast), before the cold air flips those areas to snow. This also means those areas will have lower snow totals, as discussed on the previous blog post. Elsewhere, a general moderate snowfall is likely, with several inches in the range of accumulations. The system exits early Monday, and other than an potential snow shower ushering in arctic air, look for dry and much colder weather Monday through Thursday. A storm system will pass not too far offshore Wednesday, but as for its snow shield, that will likely be a near-miss for the South Coast / Cape Cod region outside of a potential band of ocean effect snow showers reaching Outer Cape Cod as a result of the storm’s circulation. The core of the cold will be exiting by Thursday afternoon.

TODAY: Sun followed by clouds morning-midday. Overcast remainder of day with end-of-day snow (NW) and rain (SE) arriving. Highs 36-43. Wind W under 10 MPH shifting to N.

TONIGHT: Overcast with snow, except rain changing to snow southeastern areas, then snow tapering off just before sunrise. Expected snow accumulation – coating to 1 inch Nantucket and Outer Cape Cod, 1 to 2 inches Martha’s Vineyard and Lower Cape Cod, 2 to 4 inches near the Cape Cod Canal and South Coast region, 4 to 8 inches elsewhere, with isolated pockets of 8-10 inches possible mainly west of the I-95 belt. Lows 17-24 except 24-31 far southeastern areas. Wind N 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts eastern areas.

MONDAY (MLK JR DAY): Sun/cloud mix. Slight chance of passing snow showers in the afternoon. Highs 25-32 early, then falling through 20s. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 3-10. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 13-20. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 2-9. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and high clouds. A band of lower clouds and snow shower possible Outer Cape Cod. Highs 15-22. Wind N 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH Cape Cod / Nantucket.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 2-9. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 24-28)

Snow potentials (favoring southeastern areas) in the January 24-25 window, and another potential January 27. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 29 – FEBRUARY 2)

One or two additional opportunities for snow in a continued near to below normal temperature pattern to end January / start February.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 18-22)

This weekend marks the in-your-face portion of a weather pattern shift. Today will be a milder day with a southerly air flow freshening ahead of an approaching cold front, which will result in rain showers for our region late in the day and this evening. A period of partial clearing and the start of a chill down follows this overnight into Sunday, setting the stage for the second round of unsettled weather from late afternoon Sunday to early morning Monday. This will come as a batch of precipitation associated with a wave of low pressure moving swiftly northeastward along the frontal boundary that will then be offshore. The low will be starting to deepen fairly quickly as it passes by, and this combined with its precise track results in a tricky-to-forecast rain/snow line to start and a range of snowfall amounts. The low’s track will be close enough for the precipitation to start as rain from the South Coast of New England to the South Shore of MA, and snow elsewhere, but with the rain/snow line then shifting southeastward so that the areas that start as rain flip over to snow. To the west of the I-95 belt where there is nothing but snow and the atmosphere is coldest, snow amounts will be greatest, and areas that start as rain then turn to snow will have lesser overall snow accumulation in the end due to less time to accumulate, and wetter snow when it is snowing. If you have read my previous commentary you may have seen my initial snowfall forecast for this system was widespread 3 to 6 inches with 1 to 3 inches over Cape Cod and the Islands. The update today makes a few changes to this since we’re close to the event and can pinpoint a little more. I’ll trim back the eastern portion of the 1 to 3 inch area to limit accumulation to about 1 inch over Outer Cape Cod and Nantucket, 1 to 2 inches for Martha’s Vineyard and Lower Cape Cod, 2 to 4 inches for the remainder of the South Coast region up through the MA South Shore, 4 to 6 inches in the I-95 belt, and a bump-up in expected snow amounts to 6 to 8 inches west of the I-95 belt. This event wraps up first thing Monday morning as the last of the snow exits the coast around sunrise. This will be followed by plunging temperatures with a surge of arctic air that comes in Monday and lasts into the middle of next week, but with dry weather. Another low center will pass not-too-far southeast of New England by Wednesday, but the snow shield from that stays offshore.

TODAY: Limited morning sun, then cloudy. Rain showers arrive from southwest to northeast late-day. Highs 40-47. Wind S increasing to 10-20 MPH, higher gusts at times especially South Coast and higher elevations.

TONIGHT: Overcast with widespread rain showers and areas of fog evening. Breaking clouds, dissipating fog overnight. Lows 33-40. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

SUNDAY: Limited sunshine in the morning, thicker overcast afternoon. Snow arrives by late-day except rain southeastern MA / South Coast regions. Highs 35-42. Wind W up to 10 MPH shifting to N.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Overcast with snow except rain/mix changing to snow southeastern areas. Expected snow accumulation by dawn – coating to 1 inch Nantucket and Outer Cape Cod, 1 to 2 inches Martha’s Vineyard and Lower Cape Cod, 2 to 4 inches remainder of South Coast to MA South Shore, 4 to 6 inches I-95 belt, 6 to 8 inches west of I-95 belt. Lows 17-24 except 24-31 far southeastern areas. Wind N 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts eastern areas.

MONDAY (MLK JR DAY): Sun/cloud mix. Highs 25-32 early, then falling through 20s. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 3-10. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 13-20. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 2-9. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 15-22. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 23-27)

While the coldest air eases early in the period the pattern holds below normal temperatures in place. An additional snow threat exists in the January 24-25 window and again about January 27. Magnitude of threat(s) and details TBD.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 28 – FEBRUARY 1)

One or two additional opportunities for snow in a continued cold pattern to end January and start of February.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 17-21)

A sugar-dusting of snow fell in some areas overnight, and a little thicker coating in the South Coast region as a disturbance passed by the region. Today, high pressure noses in for a fair weather day and feeling fairly pleasant for mid January with above-freezing high temps and less wind. High pressure shifts offshore and a southerly wind increase for Saturday. But while this warms us up we end up cloudy as a cold front approaches. This front will bring a round of rain with the milder air in place Saturday late-day / early-night, before partial clearing arrives from west to east as the front pushes offshore. Colder air filters in Sunday, but we’ll have some diurnal temperature rise to overcome that along with some sun to start. But as colder air filters in from the north and west, clouds thicken back up as a low pressure wave rides up along the front that moved offshore the day before. This low pressure area will be moving quickly, but intensifying as it goes by, and this will result in a period of accumulating snow for Sunday evening to early Monday, with a widespread light to moderate snowfall expected. The lowest amounts are expected across Cape Cod and the Islands where some rain will be involved early on as the mild air holds on longest there. By the end of the event, we’ll be experiencing the onset of an arctic air invasion which will put us into the deep freeze late Monday and Tuesday, but with dry weather.

TODAY: Clouds give way to sun. Highs 30-37. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear evening. Increasing clouds overnight. Lows 21-28 evening. Temperatures rise slowly overnight. Wind W under 10 MPH evening, S 5-15 MPH overnight.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Rain arrives late-day. Highs 40-47. Wind S 5-15 MPH, gusts 20+ MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with rain during the evening. Rain ends, clouds thinning overnight. Lows 32-39. Wind S 5-15 MPH, shifting to W.

SUNDAY: Limited sunshine in the morning, thicker overcast afternoon. Snow arrives late-day / evening except rain at first Cape Cod / Islands. Highs 35-42. Wind W up to 10 MPH shifting to N.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Overcast with snow except rain/mix changing to snow Cape Cod / Islands. Expected snowfall accumulation 3 to 6 inches, except 1 to 3 inches Cape Cod / Islands. Lows 18-25. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY (MLK JR DAY): Sun/cloud mix. Highs 25-32 early, then falling through 20s. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 3-10. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 13-20. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 22-26)

Dry and very cold middle of next week (Wednesday-Thursday) while another storm tracks out to sea to the southeast of New England. Follow up system brings a snow chance late next week (Friday and/or Saturday). Fair, cold weather returns end of next weekend.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 27-31)

One or two additional opportunities for snow in a continued cold pattern to end January.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 16-20)

We remain in a cold pattern overall, but a brief warm-up is coming, and it’s part of a pattern change that introduces more snow chances ahead, but first, a weak disturbance coming along from the west today will send clouds into the region and a period of snow showers this evening / tonight. Only a dusting / coating of snow is possible but up to an inch can fall on the islands just south of Cape Cod, as they will be closer to what becomes a developing low pressure area before it moves away overnight. Weak high pressure noses in on Friday from the southwest with fair and pleasant mid winter weather. High pressure then slides off the Atlantic Coast and a trough and cold front approach from the west Saturday, which will be a milder day. Enough mild air comes in so this front will be a rain producer for several hours Saturday evening – maybe enough to wash residual salt / road treatment off surfaces not too long before we’ll need them again. This will become the case as after the front moves through, cold air returns, then a wave of low pressure brings a period of accumulating snow Sunday night into early Monday. Later Monday, the coldest air mass of the season so far will be knocking on the door and not waiting for us to open it before barging in.

TODAY: Increasing clouds – fading sun. Highs 26-33. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Snow showers with dustings / coatings for accumulation, except up to 1 inch Martha’s Vineyard and/or Nantucket. Lows 18-25. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Decreasing clouds – sun returns. Highs 30-37. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Patchy black ice possible overnight. Lows 23-30 in the evening, rising back into the 30s overnight. Wind W under 10 MPH evening, shifting to S and increasing to 5-15 MPH overnight.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Rain arrives late-day. Highs 40-47. Wind S 5-15 MPH, gusts 20+ MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with rain during the evening. Rain ends, clouds thinning overnight. Lows 32-39. Wind S 5-15 MPH, shifting to W.

SUNDAY: Limited sun early, then cloudy. Highs 37-44 in the morning, then falling slowly through 30s. Wind W up to 10 MPH shifting to N.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow with up to a few to several inches possible. Lows 18-25. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY (MLK JR DAY): Cloudy with snow early, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 25-32 by midday, then quick-falling temperatures later in the day. Wind N to NW increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 21-25)

Dry and very cold through the middle of next week followed by a chance of snow late next week.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 26-30)

One or two additional opportunities for snow in a continued cold pattern.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 15-19)

Northwesterly flow continues to deliver cold air for a couple more days. Today’s weather will be dry and breezy with plenty of sunshine – and you’ll start to notice it staying lighter a little later – into the 5:00 p.m. hour now. Thursday, a disturbance approaches with an increase in clouds and this system may bring a period of light snow and perhaps a few heavier snow showers as it passes through the region in the evening. Behind it though, instead of a push of colder air, temperatures will moderate as winds shift to west and lighten up on Friday, in response to a larger high pressure area to our southwest. The high slides off the Atlantic Coast by Saturday as a trough and frontal system approach from the west. This sets up a weekend weather transition in which we see a mainly cloudy, milder Saturday, with late-day and nighttime rain, which may mix with or change to snow before ending to the west, followed by a push of colder air and a drier interlude for much of Sunday. However, another wave of low pressure will rapidly approach from the southwest, and with cold air in place, the chance of snow increases as early as Sunday evening. I’ll watch that for timing/track.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 26-33. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 13-20. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 25-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening with snow or snow showers – under 1 inch of accumulation. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 32-39. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 25-32 evening, rising overnight. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Becoming cloudy. Chance of rain in the afternoon. Highs 41-48. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain evening, ending overnight, possibly mixed with snow west of I-495. Lows 32-39. Wind shifting to N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Limited sun. Potential snow by evening. Temperatures steady in 30s. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 20-24)

Snow chance early January 20. Snow chance again at the end of the period. Between these comes a significant shot of cold air with dry weather.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 25-29)

Cold eases slightly but overall temperatures stay mostly below normal. Another snow or snow shower chance comes around mid period.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 14-18)

A northwesterly air flow brings us blustery and cold but fair weather today and Wednesday. A trough moving through tonight will bring a few clouds and perhaps a brief snow flurry to a few areas. A disturbance moving our way on Thursday will be preceded by a small high pressure area with a less windy day, but clouds move in and a period of light snow showers can occur before a potential heavier snow shower or squall in the evening as a trough passes. High pressure centered well to our southwest will nose in with fair and more tranquil weather Friday, and a cold start will rebound to a milder afternoon that day. While temporary, the mid January warm up will continue Saturday as a trough and frontal system approach from the west. This will result in a rain shower chance, but those may hold off until late.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 30-37. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of a passing light snow shower. Lows 12-19. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 26-33. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 13-20. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Highs 25-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of snow showers early. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 32-39. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 25-32 evening, rising overnight. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Becoming cloudy. Chance of rain in the afternoon. Highs 41-48. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 19-23)

Colder air arrives to start the period and a wave of low pressure brings a chance of snow (may start as rain/mix southeastern areas) late January 19 into January 20. Fair, much colder weather follows.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 24-28)

Temperatures generally below normal with 1 or 2 opportunities for wintry weather.