10:38AM

This is the last update based on the last full discussion. The next blog post will feature an outlook for the week ahead including an extended look at the longer term trends as we head for the finish line of August.

Boston Area Forecast…

TODAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible in the afternoon. More organized lines of showers and storms should approach from the west by evening. Any storms after 3PM may be strong to locally severe. High 82-87. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers and thunderstorms, some possibly severe, with the strongest activity most likely before 2AM. Low 63-68. Wind SW 5-15 MPH. However, strong and gusty winds are possible near any thunderstorms.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Lingering showers and thunderstorms possible early morning. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible in the afternoon through early evening. High 80-85. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 59. High 80.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 62. High 84.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Showers and thunderstorms late. Low 66. High 88.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 64. High 81.

*** NOTE *** Additional posts may appear regarding the severe weather threat, otherwise look for observations and updates in the comments section of this blog post below. Also feel free to post a comment with any questions or observations you have, not just today, but any time!

9:16AM

Boston Area Forecast…

TODAY: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 83-88. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 63-68. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 83-88. Wind SW increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely, probably coming in 2 or 3 waves of activity. Storms may be strong to severe. Low 63-68. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, except possible strong winds associated with some thunderstorms.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers in the morning. High 80-85. Wind W to NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 59. High 80.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 60. High 82.

THURSDAY: PM thunderstorms. Low 66. High 88.

FRIDAY: AM showers. Low 66. High 82.

2:50PM

As of 2:45PM a cluster of showers and thunderstorms has formed south and southwest of Boston, and is moving north northeast. This area will cross the Boston Area during the 3:00PM hour and into the Merrimack Valley and southern NH a bit later. Heavy downpours, isolated strong wind gusts, hail, and frequent lightning may occur with any of these storms.

Forecast Update…

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, some locally heavy. High 83-88. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with gusts to 20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms early, especially north and west of Boston, then partly cloudy. Patchy fog after midnight. Humid. Low 64-69. Wind light SW.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms again mainly north and west of Boston during the afternoon. High 81-86. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 65-70. Wind W 5-10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms mostly late. High 80-85. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers and thunderstorms mostly early. Low 68. High 82.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 65. High 80.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 66. High 81.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 66. High 83.

3:52PM

There is nothing unusual about the weather pattern we are in, nor will there be, in the next week or so. It’s August, there will be weak fronts trying to move through but having trouble. It will be warm and often humid. There will be spotty showers and thunderstorms from time to time. A little drying may take place for part of next week if we can get a northern jet stream trough deep enough and progressive enough to pull some cooler/drier air out of Canada.

As I hinted at on some recent posts, I thought that some of the medium range models were overdoing the cool/wet pattern, making the troughs in the jet stream too strong for too long, and that starting around mid month we’d see a western Atlantic ridge of high pressure a little stronger than the models were forecasting at that time. This is and will continue to be the case. We’re not talking about a giant ridge of high pressure and super hot/muggy weather for the East, but a ridge strong enough to prevent major pushes of cool/dry air from Canada, as fronts have trouble pushing through cleanly, and tend to weaken and fall apart nearby. This will mean that there will be some episodes of scattered showers and thunderstorms, which is typical of August.

The other concern with a pattern like this is the tropics. They have been tending to get more active lately, and recent medium range computer guidance has been showing a tropical system that may make an approach to the eastern USA by later next week. Now, realistically it is far too soon to really be concerned about any one particular place, but the consistency of a tropical showing up on many different computer models just tells us we should be on the alert in the days ahead. Once a system is formed and starts to move along, we can start the process of prognosticating where it will eventually end up…

In the mean time, the next few updates of this blog will focus on the weather for the Boston Area, eastern MA, nearby southern NH, and northern RI. Have a great day and a great week everybody!

Forecast Update…

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly during the afternoon, with the greatest chance being the further west and north of Boston you go. Humid. High 80-85. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with gusts to 20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms early, especially north and west of Boston, then partly cloudy. Patchy fog after midnight. Humid. Low 64-69. Wind light SW.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms again mainly north and west of Boston during the afternoon. High 81-86. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 65-70. Wind W 5-10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. High 80-85. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 68. High 82.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 65. High 80.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 66. High 81.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 66. High 83.

2:09AM

After some wet and rather cool August weather, the low pressure system responsible for the unsettled weather has departed. This will lead to a sunny and warmer Wednesday, the pick of the week, a top 10 day, as high pressure builds overhead. This sunny interlude won’t last, however, as the next system will be approaching from the west, bringing clouds in during Thursday, and a shower/thunderstorm threat for Friday. This front washes out near us over the weekend and high pressure starts to build off the East Coast. This means that even though an isolated shower or storm is possible at some point during the weekend, generally rain-free, warm, and more humid weather is expected.

Boston Area Forecast…

TODAY: Sunny. High 80-85. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Low 60-65. Wind W under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Increasing clouds. High 78-83. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 64. High 79.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated thunderstorms. Low 64. High 84.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers. Low 64. High 83.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 66. High 81.

4:20PM

After some wet and rather cool August weather, the low pressure system responsible for the unsettled weather is moving away, as will be evident by the clearing sky tonight. This will lead to a sunny and warmer Wednesday, the pick of the week, as high pressure builds overhead. This sunny interlude won’t last, however, as the next system will be approaching from the west, bringing clouds in during Thursday, and a shower/thunderstorm threat for Friday. This front washes out near us over the weekend and high pressure starts to build off the East Coast. This means that even though an isolated shower or storm is possible at some point during the weekend, generally rain-free, warm, and more humid weather is expected.

Boston Area Forecast…

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. High 80-85. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Low 60-65. Wind W under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Increasing clouds. High 78-83. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 64. High 79.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated thunderstorms. Low 64. High 84.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers. Low 64. High 83.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 66. High 81.

4:28PM

For a full discussion, see the previous post!

Boston Area Forecast…

THROUGH TONIGHT: Overcast with periods of rain, some heavy. Slight chance of thunderstorms. Patchy fog. Temperature cooling through the 60s. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Showers likely, but slowly decreasing in coverage through the day. High 70-75. Wind N around 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Areas of fog over inland valley locations. Low 60-65 except 50s inland valleys. Wind light N becoming calm.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. High 80-85. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 62. High 80.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 64. High 76.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers. Low 64. High 80.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 63. High 82.

5:29PM

* Stormy Start

Looks like the unsettled pattern we have gotten ourselves into this month so far will continue early this week as a trough of low pressure and plenty of moisture combine to make a very wet start to the week Monday, lingering into Tuesday as the upper low is slow to depart.

* Nicer Midweek

High pressure should provide fair weather with lower humidity for Wednesday and Thursday.

* Unsettled Interlude

Another frontal system is expected to chug across the region with a threat of showers Friday into Saturday.

* Bright Finish?

As long as things don’t bog down in the atmosphere, we should see improving conditions next weekend from later Saturday through Sunday.

* Tropics

More active, but no immediate threats to the East Coast including New England. This may change as we get deeper into August. See below…

* Heat

No major heat in sight through this week. Even though it is getting later into summer now, you know we can still see hot days, and those are still possible as there still are signs of a Bermuda High regime possibly setting up later this month. That would also increase the chance of tropical cyclones threatening the US East Coast.

* “So, just give me the forecast.” Ok, here it is, for the Boston area, for the coming week.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain, heaviest and most widespread after midnight. Slight risk of embedded thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Mild & muggy. Low 62-67. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Overcast. Rain much of the time, with periods of heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms possible. Areas of fog. Cool but humid. High 67-72. Wind E 10-15 MPH inland with gusts up to 20 MPH, 15-20 MPH coast with gusts up to 25 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with periods of rain and drizzle along with areas of fog. Mild and humid. Low 62-67. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Patchy drizzle and fog near the coast during the morning. Isolated to scattered showers. Mild and humid. High 72-77. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 61. High 81.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 62. High 80.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. PM showers. Low 64. High 76.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. AM showers. Low 64. High 80.

SUNDAY:  Mostly sunny. Low 62. High 82.

2:56AM

TODAY: Partly cloudy. High 75-80 coast, 80-85 inland. Wind S 5-15 MPH with sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 60-65. Wind SSE 5-10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers becoming more likely especially west of Boston during the afternoon and early evening. High 75-80. Wind SSE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Showers likely, heaviest AM, lighter PM. Low 66. High 72.

TUESDAY: Chance of showers. Low 64. High 76.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy.  Low 63. High 80.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 64. High 81.

4:00PM

High pressure has taken over the weather and brought in a fresh dry air mass from Canada. The dew point dropped below 50 at Boston today, something you don’t see much of in August. High pressure will continue to be in control for the coming 2 days as well, with crisp, dry air again on Friday after a rather cool night tonight! By Saturday, you’ll notice it feeling warmer and maybe not quite as dry, though it will still be comfortable. This will take place as the high pressure area begins to move offshore and allows a touch more humidity to creep in from the southwest. But before we would have a chance to build heat along with the humidity, a trough and low pressure system moving in from the west will bring another period of wet weather, possibly with significant rainfall amounts, by later Sunday into the start of next week. Things should move along so that we get back into fair weather by the middle of next week.

Detailed Boston Area Forecast…

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Low ranging from the lower 50s inland valleys to near 60 in Boston and along the coast. Wind W diminishing to under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. High 77-82. Wind NW around 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Low 55-60. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunshine, becoming filtered by some high cloudiness during the afternoon. High 80-85. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Low 65-70. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Showers becoming more likely as the day goes on, and may be heavy by late in the day or at night. High 73-78. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 65. High 75.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 61. High 81.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 64. High 79.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 64. High 81.

Boston Area…

THIS AFTERNOON: Mostly sunny. High 75-80. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 56-61. Wind light W.

FRIDAY: Sunny. High 77-82. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 60. High 83.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. PM rain. Low 61. High 76.

Full blog update by 4PM!

8:34PM

TONIGHT: Cloudy with showers and possibly a few thunderstorms, some with locally heavy rain. Areas of fog. Thunderstorms are most likely after 9PM. Fog is most likely after midnight. Low 63-68. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with lingering showers into mid morning, then partly sunny. Areas of fog early. High 81-86. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to W during the afternoon.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with a passing shower or thunderstorm early, then partly cloudy. Low 62-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. High 75-80. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 59. High 79.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 61. High 83.

SUNDAY: Showers. Low 62. High 75.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Low 62. High 72.

10:44PM

It’s not too often we see tropical downpours and muggy air with a north wind, but we did today in eastern New England. The drier air was hiding behind a weak cold front to the north, which is sliding south across the region this evening. The showers and storms have ended and the air will begin to dry very slightly overnight. There will still be enough moisture in the air for areas of fog and low clouds to form as the temperature cools down overnight, but any of that will dissipate early Tuesday as the sun rises. Sunshine will give way to increasing high & eventually middle clouds on Tuesday as the next low pressure system approaches from the west. This system will bring a pretty good slug of rain in overnight Tuesday night into Wednesday. With heaviest rain likely over by the middle of Wednesday, it should remain unsettled through the evening. Drier weather is expected to arrive Thursday and last through Saturday, before yet another low pressure area brings a chance of wet weather for the second half of the weekend.

Boston Area Forecast…

OVERNIGHT: Areas of low clouds and fog. Low 63-68. Wind light N.

TUESDAY: Any low clouds and fog dissipate with sun increasing during the morning hours. Increasing high to eventually middle clouds with sun becoming limited in the afternoon. High 71-76 coast, 76-81 inland. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain and a chance of thunderstorms after 1AM. Low 63-68. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with rain and a chance of thunderstorms in the morning. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 69-74. Wind SE 5-15 MPH shifting to N.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 62. High 77.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 59. High 79.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 61. High 82.

SUNDAY: Showers likely. Low 64. High 74.

11:30PM

We are currently in a pattern of no heat, though it is muggy, and somewhat unsettled weather. This will continue through the middle of the coming week as a trough of low pressure slowly moves across the northeastern US. This unsettled and muggy stretch may climax with a significant rain event on Wednesday.

When we get to Thursday, Friday, and the start of the weekend, a ridge of high pressure will bring drier weather, but by Sunday, we may be back into wet weather once again. The reason for that is that, unlike I thought the other day, the overall pattern is not going to change too much through the middle of this month. Eventually, I do expect a strengthening ridge of high pressure in the western Atlantic to bring a bout of classic summertime weather sometime during the second half of August.

The Boston Area forecast for the week ahead goes like this…

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mostly east of Route 495. High 75-80. Wind N under 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Areas of fog. Low 64-69. Wind N under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms, mostly west of Route 495. High 74-79 coast, 80-85 inland. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain and a chance of thunderstorms after midnight. Low 63-68. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Rain and thunderstorms in the morning, tapering to showers in the afternoon. High 68-73. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 62. High 77.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 63. High 79.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 64. High 82.

SUNDAY: Showers/thunderstorms. Low 66. High 74.

3:25PM

Here’s a short, quick forecast update, as I was away yesterday and didn’t have a chance to update. Full update including the discussion for the week ahead will be coming later this evening!

Boston Area Forecast…

REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON: Showers mainly Boston south ending, lingering mist/fog near the coast also ending, clouds breaking and becoming partly sunny from west to east. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are still possible in areas that see sun coming out. High 75-80, cooler along the shore. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Isolated showers early. Low 65-70. Wind S under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog early. Scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly in the afternoon. High 76-81. Wind variable around 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers early. Low 63-68. Wind N under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 80-85. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY:  Rain and thunderstorms. Low 64. High 69.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 64. High 76.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 64. High 77.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 63. High 79.