3:51PM

The overall pattern during the next week or so will be in a reorganizing mode, but not in a major way. A ridge of high pressure continues to sit over the western Atlantic but with time is weakening and flattening. A few weak troughs will be making their way around a larger-scale trough in central Canada, tossing energy this way but never really setting off any major storminess. Eventually this trough will expand and send colder air into the central US, but it may still have trouble staying chilly in the East, including New England, where only brief shots of October chill will begin sometime next week. There is low confidence on the forecast again, like in yesterday’s update, especially beyond a few days. So take what is written below with a grain of salt and check back for updates.

What used to be a cold front will be finishing its final steps as it moves across the Northeast tonight and early Tuesday, producing only some variable cloudiness. The cloudiness tonight will prevent it from being as chilly as it was in some areas early Monday. This front will also not be delivering any real cold air as it washes out, so it will be a mild day Tuesday. A slightly stronger disturbance coming along from the Midwest will send its warm front into the region Wednesday with more cloudiness and a shower threat, leading to a variably cloudy and mild day Thursday but with still some shower risk. The Friday-Monday period will be dominated by a westerly flow, mostly dry weather, but a few disturbances bringing mostly clouds but a lack of precipitation. I’m not sure of the timing of these so the extended forecast will be very sparse of detail for now.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows in the 40s to around 50. Wind S under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy – least sun morning, most sun afternoon. Highs in the 60s, coolest at the coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 45-50, some lower 40s valleys. Wind light E-SE.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs upper 50s to middle 60s. Wind SE-E up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of showers. Low 55. Highs 68.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 40s. Highs in the 60s.

6:55PM

High pressure dominates for the Columbus Day holiday with fair and mild weather. A weakening disturbance from the west will bring some cloudiness later Monday night into early Tuesday before high pressure re-establishes itself with nice weather later Tuesday into Wednesday. A cold front may bring a few showers to the region Thursday. At the end of the week it appears we’ll be in a westerly flow with mostly dry weather, some clouds from time to time, and a trend to cooler weather, though there is some uncertainty due to medium range model disagreement. Fine-tuning will be done as it gets closer.

Forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

OVERNIGHT: Patchy low clouds & valley fog otherwise clear. Lows from the upper 30s inland valleys to upper 40s coastal and urban areas. Wind light NE to N.

MONDAY – COLUMBUS DAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-68, coolest near the coast. Wind N up to 10 MPH shifting to SE.

MONDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows in the 40s to around 50. Wind SE to S under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Increasing sunshine. Highs in the 60s. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 47. High 64.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 51. High 65.

FRIDAY: Clearing. Low 49. High 61.

SATURDAY & SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s to middle 40s. Highs in the upper 50s to middle 60s.

8:21PM

High pressure to the north, finally winning the battle with low pressure to the south, will make for a pretty nice Columbus Day Weekend around southeastern New England, though abundant low cloudiness and possible drizzle will impact parts of the region, especially coastal NH and much of eastern MA, on Saturday. By Sunday, drier air will have worked into the region, eliminating most of the cloudiness. The holiday itself on Monday also looks great. And after some damp chill near the coast to start the weekend out, the overall trend will be for mild air to dominate.

A peak into next week shows a mild first half of the week with a cold front bringing a change at the very end of the week.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

OVERNIGHT: Variable high & middle clouds. Lows in the 40s. Wind light NE.

SATURDAY: Low clouds roll in from the northeast covering most of southeastern NH and eastern MA and a little less coverage with some sun other areas. Highs around 60. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Low clouds break up from northeast to southwest. Lows in the 40s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny but still some passing clouds at times. Highs in the 60s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY – COLUMBUS DAY: Partly cloudy. Low 48. High 68.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 49. High 66.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 49. High 66.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 51. High 64.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 44. High 55.

9:37PM

Low pressure stays close enough to provide lots of clouds into Friday and even some light rain near the South Coast. High pressure to the north will then win the battle and force the low away to the south, but the arrival of the high pressure area will produce an northeast wind that will add lots of low clouds to the sky for Saturday before drier air finally gives more sun by Sunday. So overall, it’s an improving picture, but with some patience required. This is a long holiday weekend for some, with Monday being Columbus Day. At this point, the weather looks decent that day.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy dominated by high &  middle clouds, along with a chance of a few periods of light rain especially near the South Coast. Some sun possible Friday especially during the afternoon. Lows tonight upper 40s to lower 50s. Highs Friday in the 60s, coolest at the coast. Wind E to NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy dominated by low clouds. Chance of a little drizzle especially eastern coastal areas late Saturday. Lows in the 50s. Highs 60-65. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 47. High 64.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: Fair weather daily. Lows 40s to around 50. Highs in the 60s.

9:09PM

A multi-day battle between high pressure north of New England and low pressure south of New England will have southern New England on the fence, weather-wise, right through the coming holiday weekend. The low pressure area, made up partially of the remains of Tropical Storm Karen (in the Gulf of Mexico last week), will be cut off from the jet stream, and drifting about off the Mid Atlantic Coast. It will be trying to lift northward while at the same time a big high pressure area centered over southeastern Canada tries to push southward. Though there is a little more uncertainty than usual with this forecast, we will likely see filtered sun across southeastern New England Wednesday as the low remains well to the south, then thickening clouds by Thursday as it pushes more to the north. What remains to be seen as how far north the rain comes. For now the best threat looks like it will be south of the Mass Pike Thursday afternoon into Friday. The low may settle back to the south over the weekend with less rain threat and some reduction in cloudiness, before pushing northward again and increasing both the clouds and the rain threat (especially to the south), by Columbus Day (Monday) and Tuesday. Check back frequently as fine-tuning will be needed.

For now, the updated forecast for southeastern New England looks like this…

TONIGHT: Variable high clouds. Lows upper 30s to lower 40s inland valleys to around 50 coast and urban centers. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunshine, filtered through variable high clouds. Highs in the 60s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Considerable high clouds. Lows in the 40s. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain southeastern MA and RI. Highs upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind E 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain, especially southern MA and RI. Low 48. High 58.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of light rain South Coast. Low 46. High 61.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 47. High 62.

MONDAY – COLUMBUS DAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain, especially southern MA/RI. Low 47. High 60.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain especially southeastern MA through Cape Cod. Low 46. High 58.

7:42AM

Cold front sweeps west to east across the region today and tonight into mild and humid air, setting off showers and possible thunderstorms. High pressure builds in Tuesday and holds through midweek with great weather. A disturbance may cause a few more clouds Friday. Watching a storm potentially south of the region over the weekend – should stay south but too early to be sure.

TODAY: Foggy morning. Cloudy and showery afternoon. Highs 60s South Coast, 70s elsewhere. Wind S increasing to 10-20 MPH with gusts around 30 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy with showers and possible thunderstorms, some with heavy rain. Lows around 60. Wind S 10-20 MPH and gusty.

TUESDAY: Clearing early then mostly sunny. Highs around 70. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY: Mostly clear. Lows in the 40s. Highs in the 60s.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 40s. Highs around 60.

SATURDAY & SUNDAY: Partly sunny – more clouds to the south. Lows upper 30s to middle 40s. Highs upper 50s to middle 60s.

10:42AM

I was too optimistic yet again. Wetter than I expected, cooler than I expected for today. Warm front will take its time pushing north so expect it to stay cool and showery for the bulk of the region today. Warm front finally pushes to the north tonight and introduces mild and muggy air for Monday, but a shower threat during the day and heavier showers/rain at night with a cold front and some tropical moisture that was once associated with Tropical Storm Karen in the Gulf of Mexico. Still expecting the bulk of this rain to come through Monday night and though it may linger into Tuesday morning in the form of showers, it should clear out of here and Tuesday should end much brighter than it starts. Mid to late week still looks decent at this time. Will revisit this in a few hours on an early-issued Week Ahead post.

Southeastern New England Forecast…

TODAY:  Cloudy. Occasional showers. Highs upper 50s-lower 60s. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A few showers. Patchy fog. Temperatures steady. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Heavier and more numerous showers late, especially at night. Highs in the 70s. Muggy. Wind S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TUESDAY: AM showers / PM clearing. Low 60. High 68.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: Fair weather. Lows in the 40s. Highs in the 60s.

4:30PM

Stationary front lingers through Sunday with lots of clouds and a risk of passing showers. Tropcial air surges in for Monday ahead of a cold front that will come through early Tuesday (also have to watch for an influx of tropical moisture associated partially with what is left of Karen). Expecting things to move swiftly enough that it should clear by later Tuesday after lingering showers to start the day. This should lead to a dry mid to late week, though we will have to watch an area of low pressure hanging around in the waters south of New England.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog and passing showers late. Lows 55-60. Wind light variable but mainly E.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Passing showers possible. High 60-65. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Temperatures steady around 60. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Passing showers. Heavier rain possible late day or night. Highs in the 70s. Wind S 10-20 MPH and gusty.

TUESDAY: AM showers / PM clearing. Low 60. High 70.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 55. High 65.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 55. High 72.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 50. High 63.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 46. High 60.

7:54PM

In my opinion, the models are applesauce today so I’m making a 7 day forecast with very limited use of the ECMWF model and a touch of meteorology. 🙂

This is how I envision it unfolding during the next 7 days:

Nearly stationary frontal system wavers around southern New England into Sunday before pushing north as a warm front. Odds favor the front being over northern MA or southern NH much of Friday and a little further south on Saturday, which will be the cooler of the 2 days. Also, lots of clouds will dominate, and though the rain threat will not be continuous or even that strong a chance, we cannot rule out some occasional shower activity. A stronger push of air from the south will send the entire region into a warm and more humid air mass on Sunday. The shower threat will be minimal, at best, on this day and for now I’m leaving them out of the forecast. A cold front will move into the region from the west on Monday, with an increasing shower threat, and even the possibility of thunderstorms. In addition, tropical moisture from the remains of Tropical Storm Karen (currently in the Gulf of Mexico), is expected to make a run up along the front and may enhance rainfall somewhere in the later Monday through early Tuesday time frame. With less confidence (due to the time distance), I will say that it should clear later Tuesday and cool briefly as it dries out, followed by a fair and warmer midweek as high pressure builds again.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (RI, eastern MA, and southern NH)…

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 53-58. Wind W under 10 MPH shifting to N.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy – limited sun. Slight chance of showers. Highs 67-76, coolest east-facing shores. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH in southern NH and northeastern MA, SE to S 5-15 MPH elsewhere.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows 53-58. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers early. Highs 63-72, coolest coastal areas. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Foggy areas especially South Coast. Lows 55-60. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs in the 70s except upper 60s South Coast.  Wind SE to S 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Occasional showers. Chance of heavier rain late. Low 62. High 72.

TUESDAY: Cloudy start with rain possible. Sunny finish. Low 58. High 67.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Low 50. High 73.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Low 53. High 78.

8:24PM

A weak cold front is passing by and will not make it very far south and east of southern New England through Thursday. It will then try to return back across the region as a warm front on  Friday but looks like it may get hung up and sit around the area through Saturday before finally getting pushed to the north on Sunday. What does this all mean? It means there will be more cloudiness around from Thursday night into the weekend along with some threat of showers, though it appears that the greatest threat of any rainfall may be confined to early Friday and that much of the weekend will end up being rain-free. Early next week should start warm and humid with a rain threat as a cold front approaches from the west, but timing is not clear at this point. What is more certain is that a mild to warm temperature pattern is not going anywhere soon.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows in the 50s. Wind W around 10 MPH.

THURSDAY:  Sunshine, filtered at times by variable high clouds. Highs in the 70s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Pre-dawn showers possible in southern NH and Boston’s NW suburbs. Lows around 60. Wind light variable.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers through mid morning, then lots of clouds linger but periods of sun as well. Highs around 70. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Low 60. High 75.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Low 60. High 79.

MONDAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Chance of rain late. Low 62. High 81.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 61. High 75.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 58. High 73.

1:28AM

We’re back in a warmer pattern as October arrives, and it looks like it will be around for a while. Sensible weather during the next 7 days will be driven by the following players:

-Dry, mild weather today between an ocean storm to the east and high pressure to the southwest.

-Warm wedge Wednesday as high pressure sinks to the south of the region with a west wind and high pressure also dominates aloft.

-Weak almost unnoticeable cold front passes early Thursday knocking the temperature back only slightly with more fair weather.

-Warm front approaches Friday, bringing more clouds. Shower threat should be absent but will watch it.

-Weekend: Taste of summer behind the warm front and ahead of a cold front, which may get close enough by Sunday to set off a few showers.

Forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TODAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Highs in the 70s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows in the 50s. Wind light W.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 80s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 57. High 79.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 55. High 68.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 56. High 81.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers. Low 57. High 79.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers. Low 57. High 77.

10:51PM

High pressure will dominate just about all week, keeping unsettled weather away. A cold front may make it in by Sunday with a threat of showers, but even that may be limited. Temperatures will run above to much above normal, with a lingering taste of Summer for at least a few of the days. In the shorter term, some dense fog may be around first thing Monday morning as conditions in the early morning hours will be perfect for its formation (clear, calm, air becoming saturated as the low temperature meets the dew point).

Forecast for southeastern New England…

OVERNIGHT: Areas of dense fog. Lows middle 40s to lower 50s, coolest inland valleys. Wind calm.

MONDAY: Areas of dense fog and low clouds into mid morning. Mostly sunny midday on. Highs 65-70. Wind E under 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Patchy low clouds and fog especially valleys otherwise mostly clear. Lows upper 40s to middle 50s. Wind light variable.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-80, closer to 70 immediate coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 56. High 84, cooler coast.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 58. High 88, cooler coast.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 58. High 81, cooler coast.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 55. High 79, cooler South Coast.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers. Low 60. High 77, cooler South Coast.

9:50AM

Very few changes but they are significant.

1) Missed the fog in the forecast. My bad. Should have seen that coming with the calm/clear air last evening and the dewpoint and temp set to meet. As of this writing it’s vanishing quickly with the low clouds soon to follow. Fog-gonnit!!!

2) After all, storm staying offshore.

Full discussion later with The Week Ahead. Quick forecast for now.

TODAY: Morning fog and low clouds in east central MA and southern NH burn off. Otherwise mostly sunny but some high and middle cloud patches Cape Cod and SE MA. Highs in the 60s. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variable high and patchy middle clouds especially eastern MA and coastal NH. Patchy fog in valleys/swamps/bogs, not as widespread as early today. Lows middle 40s to lower 50s. Wind E under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Variable high and middle clouds far eastern MA/NH especially Cape Cod. Sunshine still plentiful most areas. Highs in the 60s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 48. High 70.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 51. High 80.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 54. High 75.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 50. High 71.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 51. High 75.

3:42PM

Though the weather hasn’t really been too bad the last few days, we have had to contend with some cloudy periods courtesy low pressure in the Canadian Maritimes. Bands of low level moisture rotating around the circulation have caused this to happen. As of the middle of Friday afternoon we are finally seeing a more genuine push of drier air work down from the north and northeast, and this should push these clouds out once and for all (from this low). This will set us up for a great end-of-September weekend. But we are squeezing it in, because another low pressure area will be getting its act together over the ocean to the southeast of New England during the weekend, and is expected to move north northwestward, coming close enough to bring wind and some rain to southeastern New England as early as Sunday night, and more likely for much of Monday. The movement of this storm will likely lead to some large ocean swells and some coastal flooding problems (though not likely major). This will be watched. So, September will end on a stormy note. But as October gets underway, it looks like a stretch of fair and warmer weather will arrive.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows near 40 inland valleys to near 50 coastal and urban areas. Calm.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 70-75, upper 60s coastal areas. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows in the 40s. Wind light variable.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 70-75, again some 60s coast. Wind E to SE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT:  Increasing clouds. Lows around 50. Wind SE to E 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Overcast. Periods of rain. Highs 60-65. Wind E to NE 15-30 MPH and gusty.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 47. High 70.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 50. High 73.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 53. High 76.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 56. High 79.

1:03AM

The low pressure area in the Canadian Maritimes that has now become close enough to throw periodic cloudiness into the region will be instrumental and reducing a future storm threat. The Maritimes low will continue to toss areas of clouds into southeastern New England through Friday before the blocking pattern in the atmosphere relaxes enough to allow it to move to the east and let go of this area. But the fact that it lingered longer than originally expected will be instrumental in keeping a new low pressure area from developing fully and moving too close late in the weekend and early next week. Indications are that this new system will be far enough offshore to keep direct impact away from the region. A high pressure ridge in the Midwest and Great Lakes will nudge eastward and result in a very nice weekend. The low pressure area offshore by Monday will still have to be watched. Some cloudiness may result but will lean away from precipitation making it into the region for now.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

OVERNIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Lows 42-52, mildest urban centers and immediate coast. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunshine and passing clouds. Highs in the 60s, may touch 70 in some inland locations. Wind N 5-15 MPH

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows around 50. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs in the 60s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Low 44. High 64.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Low 46. High 66.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 48. High 68.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 45. High 65.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 47. High 70.