DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 3-7)

This week features an “every-other-day” weather system, though timing brings a lot of the action through during evening and nighttime hours. Today starts it off with what is actually two low pressure areas, the first one from the southern jet stream, making a run out just to our south and tossing its rain shield into southeastern New England later in the day to early this evening, the second being a cold front trailing from low pressure moving across southeastern Canada which brings rain showers to our area tonight. Behind this comes a dry but blustery and cool day Tuesday as high pressure builds toward the region, but creates a tight pressure gradient between itself and low pressure in southeastern Canada. Unless you’re a hardy soul, a jacket and probably a hat will be required if you will be out and about, including heading to vote as it is an election day. The next low pressure area is from the northern jet stream, which is becoming our dominant “weather-maker”, and will bring rain showers to our region later Wednesday, mainly at night. This is followed by another cool, blustery early November day on Thursday, before the “wash-rinse-repeat” pattern sends the next disturbance our way later on Friday with the potential for more wet weather that night.

TODAY: Increasing clouds. Light rain probable by late-day eastern CT, RI, southeastern MA. Rain showers likely end-of-day west of I-495 in north central MA and southwestern NH. Highs 52-59. Wind variable up to 10 MPH, becoming SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy evening with rain showers pushing west to east across the region. A slight chance of thunder mainly west of I-495. Clearing overnight. Lows 40-47. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

TUESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 49-56. Wind NW 15-25 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Lows 40-47. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW with higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 48-55. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 29-36. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of rain showers at night. Highs 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 8-12)

Two more low pressure systems with probable impact, one on November 9 and another end-of-period. Overall progression of system slows somewhat as the pattern becomes a little less organized.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 13-17)

Unsettled weather potential very early in the period, and again at the end of the period. Jury is out on whether we see more progressive systems heading through the Great Lakes or a slower-moving pattern of more cut-off low pressure occurring a little further south.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 2-6)

We switched from Daylight Saving to Standard time this morning! If you have not moved any manual clocks back one hour, now is the time to do so! This means our sunrise, by clock, was “earlier” – in the 6:00 a.m. hour, and the sunset will be prior to 5:00 p.m. today. Happens ever year – nothing new there! Onward we go into the “dark days” of later autumn and today will be one with a cold start and a slightly more pleasant, albeit still cool afternoon with lots of sun and some interrupting high and mid level cloud patches from a passing weak upper disturbance. Remember once upon a time “the models” touted this system as a rainmaker for today. This is why forecasts get updated and not based on model data way out in the future, which is simply guidance with limitations. But yes, a nice early November day for us today as high pressure builds in at the surface while that disturbance is passing by above. This is a signal though for an active and fast-flowing pattern which will bring several low pressure / frontal systems our way. Monday, we’ll see both a southern stream system and northern stream system make a run at our area. These will be close to but not quite phasing until they pass by. The southern stream low passing to our south will toss a shield of generally light rainfall as far north as eastern CT, RI, and southeastern MA (maybe up to Metro Boston) later Monday afternoon into Monday evening, while a cold front associated with the northern stream low pressure area passing to our north will sweep through from west to east in the early evening with its own band of rain showers. Ahead of this, Monday will be a very slightly milder day that today is, but behind it call comes another chilly, breezy day for Tuesday, but with dry weather. The next system, a northern stream low pressure and frontal boundary, comes our way late Wednesday to very early Thursday with what looks like a fairly quick round of light rain Wednesday evening with a warm front, favoring areas north of I-90, then a band of rain showers with a very early Thursday cold frontal passage. Another shot of cool air along with gusty wind follows this for Thursday with dry weather returning.

TODAY: Sunshine with passing cloud patches. Highs 48-55. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 33-40. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Light rain probable by late-day eastern CT, RI, southeastern MA. Rain showers likely end-of-day west of I-495 in north central MA and southwestern NH. Highs 50-57. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy early with rain showers in northeastern MA and southeastern NH, then clearing. Lows 41-48. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

TUESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 48-55. Wind NW 15-25 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Brief rain potential northern MA / southern NH evening. Chance of a rain shower overnight west to east. Lows 41-48. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW with higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Sun/cloudy mix. Highs 47-54. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 7-11)

Quick-moving pattern goes on into the second week of November with two more system passing by during this period with unsettled weather opportunities (late November 7 to early November 8 and later November 9 to early November 10, based on current expected timing). More detail to come for these days. Temperatures variable – averaging near normal.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 12-16)

Medium range guidance puts less emphasis on the chance for a cut-off low later in the period impacting our region, and more emphasis on a more defined storm track through the Great Lakes with a couple more unsettled weather chances around passing frontal boundaries with temperatures near to slightly above normal for mid month. Will monitor trends here.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 1-5)

A cool opening weekend for the month of November, starting rather breezy today as the air flows around the back side of a storm in eastern Canada, then diminishes for Sunday as high pressure builds in. We’ll still see some cloud patches around today from back-side-of-low air flow, and Sunday maybe some high and mid level cloud patches from a small upper disturbance moving by. The weather pattern going forward through these first several days of the 11th month of 2025 will be active, with a “system” about every other day. During this period our timing is later Monday and later Wednesday. The Monday system actually is two systems, one southern stream and one northern stream. My thoughts are we see no phase, the southern one passing just out to sea to our south, while the northern stream features low pressure tracking eastward, passing to our north, and dragging a cold front through here Monday evening when there can be some rain showers. This sets up a breezy, cool, dry Tuesday with a northwesterly wind. But the fast-moving pattern sends a small high pressure area just to our south and the wind switches to southwest Wednesday ahead of the next low pressure and frontal system – a slightly more robust northern jet stream disturbance. This brings the chance of more significant rain showers by that evening.

TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 52-59. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Lows 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunshine / cloud patches. Highs 48-55. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 33-40. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 50-57. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A passing rain shower. Lows 41-48. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

TUESDAY: Early clouds, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 48-55. Wind NW 15-25 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Chance of rain late. Highs 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 6-10)

Similar pattern – quick moving systems passing by. A cool, breezy, dry November 6. Next small system moves through with a rain/mix shower chance late November 7. Timing suggest next wet weather chance is brief but better later November 9. Will fine-tune. Temperatures variable – averaging near normal.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 11-15)

Watch for a storm system tracking through the Great Lakes early to mid period with more unsettled weather. Late period indications of a broad, slower-moving or potentially “cut-off” type system bringing another chance of unsettled weather. Temperatures near to slightly above normal.

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 31 – NOVEMBER 4)

Low pressure lifts northward from northern New England into the St. Lawrence Valley today, bringing us drier but windy weather for Halloween. We may see a brief passing sprinkle of rain in a few locations, but for the most part it’s dry, mild at first then cooler, and quite breezy to windy. As previously mentioned, some wet leave patches may still be around on some streets and walkways into this evening, so use caution if walking or driving, particularly during the trick-or-treat time frame. Our weekend will be cool and dry with an assortment of clouds, but also some sunshine each day, with dry weather continuing Monday as well. Monday night and early Tuesday, a trough in the polar jet stream sends low pressure north of us with a cold front passing by. Meanwhile, a southern jet stream system will make a run at the region but the moisture from it should stay mostly to our south with a lack of interaction / phasing between the two jet streams. Briefly unsettled weather is possible early Tuesday before dry but windy weather sets in.

TODAY: Lots of clouds, intervals of sun, and a slight chance of a brief passing sprinkle of rain later. Highs 55-62 by midday, then slowly cooling. Wind SW to W 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.

HALLOWEEN EVENING: Cloud / moon mix. Temperatures fall from middle 50s to upper 40s. Wind W 10-20 MPH but gusts in the 25-35 MPH range but can exceed 40 MPH in higher elevations and over Cape Cod.

OVERNIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 52-59. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloud / sun intervals. Highs 48-55. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 33-40. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 50-57. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows 40-47. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers early. Highs 48-55. Wind NW 15-25 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 5-9)

Weakening split flow pattern with less involvement from southern jet stream which fades while the northern jet stream becomes dominant. Brief rain/mix showers possible November 6 with passing disturbances / fronts. Otherwise a mostly dry pattern with temperatures near to slightly below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 10-14)

One or two systems can impact the region but no major storminess expected. General low pressure track through Great Lakes creating variable temperatures for our area.

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 30 – NOVEMBER 3)

High pressure in Atlantic Canada and approaching low pressure from the south continues to produce broad scale onshore flow with a stratus cloud deck and areas of drizzle today while high and mid level clouds increase and thicken unseen above that. As low pressure passes just west of our area and redevelops overhead tonight and very early Friday, we’ll have an area of moderate to heavy rainfall, partially enhanced by a moisture connection to distant Hurricane Melissa which will be approaching and passing Bermuda – although the bulk of this enhanced moisture does pass just east of our region. Friday, low pressure will lift northward through Maine and into far southeastern Canada, with an elongated center stretching back to the west – north of our region. This will kick up a moderate, gusty westerly wind with generally dry weather for Friday, but I cannot rule out a quick-passing afternoon shower, especially north of I-90, favoring the hills of north central MA and southern NH, from wrap-around moisture and a little orographic enhancement. Any of these would be brief in locations that they did occur. While it’ll be relatively mild during the daytime on Friday, we’ll have a quick cool-down with a continued gusty wind during the evening, and lot of clouds passing by the waxing gibbous moon adding to the spooky vibe for Halloween evening. We do need to be mindful of a couple of things regarding trick-or-treat and travel by foot or car. Areas of downed leaves that were soaked during the previous rainfall may not have fully dried out, and that can create slick spots for walking or driving. Additionally, stronger wind gusts can create a hazard for falling branches from weaker trees. Use extra caution. The gusty wind will continue into Saturday, shifting more from west to northwest as the low pressure area progresses further into Atlantic Canada. The wind will slacken later Saturday and Sunday. During the cool weather this weekend, we’ll have a sun/cloud mix both Saturday and Sunday, but the clouds likely end up more dominant on Sunday due to the passage of an upper level disturbance. Monday’s weather looks fairly tranquil and a little less chilly with a weak area of high pressure following the departure of Sunday’s upper disturbance.

TODAY: Cloudy. Patchy drizzle. Rain arrives late-day / evening southwest to northeast. Highs 50-57. Wind E 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas.

TONIGHT: Cloudy with rain, heavy at times. Lows 48-55. Wind SE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas.

FRIDAY: Sun/cloud mix. An early-day shower possible north of I-90. A late-day shower possible southwestern NH and north central MA. Highs 57-64. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 52-59. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloud / sun intervals. Highs 48-55. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 33-40. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 50-57. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 4-8)

Weakening split flow pattern with less involvement from southern jet stream which fades while the northern jet stream becomes dominant. Brief rain showers possible early November 4 and brief rain/mix showers possible November 6 with passing disturbances / fronts. Otherwise a mostly dry pattern with temperatures near to slightly below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 9-13)

One or two systems can impact the region but no major storminess expected. General low pressure track through Great Lakes creating variable temperatures for our area. More detail on day to day weather for these days as it gets closer.

HURRICANE MELISSA UPDATE

The hurricane crossed Jamaica yesterday and is currently (as of this writing) crossing eastern Cuba, set to track through the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands later today, weakening, and finally making a close pass to Bermuda late Thursday / early Friday, continuing the weakening process and beginning its post-tropical transition. As previously mentioned, a minor moisture infusion may occur into our upcoming storm system, but not one that will significantly enhance our rainfall amount potential. Consult the latest advisory from NHC for complete information about this system.

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 29 – NOVEMBER 2)

Broad-scale onshore flow continues and the lower levels are more moist so that the stratus cloud coverage is more extensive, and this will be the case today, though there can be enough dry air working in to cause some breaks in the clouds and maybe even a few intervals of sun. Also, we may see some drizzle patches off the ocean. A low pressure area will offshore to the southeast will move away today. We then turn attention to the next storm system developing to our south, destined to take a track just to our west later Thursday then redevelop over Maine on Friday before heading into Atlantic Canada. Any moisture infusion from the tropical activity well to the southeast should miss our area (may clip Downeast Maine on Friday). We will, however, have a nice slug of rainfall with the system over several hours from evening Thursday to pre-dawn Friday, which does help to continue to reduce our precipitation deficit. Behind this system, expect a breezy, drier, but mild day Friday. There may be a lingering shower with the departing storm system’s occluded front first thing in the morning, and a little wrap-around moisture can trigger an afternoon shower in the hills of southwestern NH and north central MA for a brief time. Otherwise, heading into the trick-or-treat hours it looks like variably cloudy skies will play with the waxing gibbous moon and a gusty breeze will add some spookiness to the overall feel of the evening. Watch for fallen leaves that can still be wet from previous rainfall when walking and/or driving and stay safe! …. Heading into the weekend (and the first 2 days of November), high pressure brings fair but breezy weather Saturday as the high center is to our west and still producing a fairly tight pressure gradient in combination with low pressure in Atlantic Canada. This will relax a bit on Sunday. Previously I was eyeing a potential disturbance for some unsettled weather Sunday, and while the system is still technically there, it will likely be insignificant and only bring some cloud patches and no threat of any precipitation, so basically a dry weekend forecast is the result.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Patchy drizzle possible especially eastern coastal locations. Highs 48-55. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Possible drizzle. Lows 43-50. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Patchy drizzle. Rain arrives late-day / evening southwest to northeast. Highs 50-57. Wind E 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with rain, heavy at times. Lows 48-55. Wind SE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas.

FRIDAY: Sun/cloud mix. An early-day shower possible north of I-90. A late-day shower possible southwestern NH and north central MA. Highs 57-64. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 52-59. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloud / sun intervals. Highs 48-55. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 3-7)

Trend is for a split flow on the large scale with a weakening southern jet stream and more dominant northern jet stream. Interaction of the two can produce a brief rain event about November 4, but there’s also a chance this interaction fails to occur and we just have a frontal passage from the northern stream system. Another disturbance approaches by the end of the period with a rain/mix shower threat. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 8-12)

Next best shot at a passing unsettled weather system is mid to late-period. Temperatures near to slightly below normal.

HURRICANE MELISSA UPDATE

The hurricane peaked in intensity (175 MPH sustained winds – category 5) overnight and is now approaching landfall on the south coast of Jamaica, the center to move across the west central portion of the island today, where catastrophic damage will occur. We can only hope shelter is adequate enough to save the lives of those in the path. As previously mentioned, there will be significant impact over eastern Jamaica as well, but they will be outside the strongest core of the storm. Also wind damage and flooding rain impacts extend eastward to Haiti, with the Dominican Republic less impacted for being further east. The path of the storm then takes it across eastern Cuba, the southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos, as a weakening but still formidable hurricane with damaging wind and flooding rain along its path. By late Thursday night / early Friday it is accelerating by Bermuda as a weakening hurricane with much lesser impact there, then off into the Atlantic it goes, losing tropical characteristics thereafter. There may be a minor infusion of some of the moisture from this system into the one that’s going to impact our region but not enough to really reach our area with any notable increase in rainfall amount potential…

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 28 – NOVEMBER 1)

For our area, there is not a lot of change to the discussion and forecast from yesterday, so summarizing, we find ourselves in a northeasterly air flow today becoming more easterly during Wednesday. A deck of stratus clouds is already moving into southeastern MA as of daybreak today and will be most prominent south of Boston today while sunshine is more prevalent to the northwest. If you are out from under this stratus deck you’ll notice high cloudiness advancing from southwest to northeast across the sky, and this is from the previously-mentioned initial storm system passing to our south. It makes its “closest” pass tonight and early Wednesday when the high to mid level cloud shield will be thickest over our region, adding some patchy light rain mainly to southeastern MA (Cape & Islands most notably) while some coastal area drizzle can occur under thicker stratus clouds due to moisture advecting off the ocean. The latter will become more established through the region during the day Wednesday as the first storm system starts to move away but keeps the broad scale onshore wind flow going. As this takes place, a second storm takes shape to the south, and the track of this one is “inside” or west of our region, but not by that much. This brings a ribbon of heavier rainfall up and across our region Thursday night, occurring over a several hour period from around dusk to pre-dawn before it moves out to the east and northeast. As low pressure wraps up northwest of our area during Friday (Halloween), we’ll experience dry weather with a gusty westerly breeze but air not all that chilly during the day. By evening it cools down, but not substantially, and stays rain-free with varying amounts of clouds playing with a waxing gibbous moon in the sky as a gusty breeze blows making a “spooky” trick or treat evening. Some areas that had a lot of leaf drop may still have wet leaves underfoot that have not had a chance to dry yet, so keep this in mind of walking or driving around that evening. Heading to Saturday, the first day of November, it looks like we will have a dry, breezy, and seasonably cool day with a sun/cloud mix as we’re still under the influence of that low pressure area as it moves into southeastern Canada.

TODAY: Most sun northwest of Boston, less sun southeast with low clouds moving in from the ocean. Increasing high clouds south to north above that later. Highs 48-55. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT / WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Patchy drizzle possible especially eastern coastal locations. Chance of light rain South Coast early Wednesday. Lows 41-48. Highs 48-55. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Possible drizzle. Lows 43-50. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Patchy drizzle. Rain arrives late-day / evening southwest to northeast. Highs 50-57. Wind E 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with rain, heavy at times. Lows 48-55. Wind SE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas.

FRIDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 57-64. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 52-59. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 2-6)

Watch for passing systems to produce unsettled weather episodes November 2 and 4 with fair weather on the other days, based on current timing of a pattern of quick-moving systems. Temperatures variable will end up not far from normal for the period.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 7-11)

Next best shot at a passing unsettled weather system is mid to late-period. Temperatures near to slightly below normal.

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 27-31)

Here we are at the final 5 days of October, wrapping up with Halloween this coming Friday, and there is a lot of weather to talk about as we head down the home stretch of the tenth month of 2025. First, a word on Hurricane Melissa, currently a category 5 hurricane drifting westward to the south of Jamaica. This is not a large hurricane, size-wise, but is going to be intense as it eventually turns to the north, crossing Jamaica Tuesday morning to midday then turning northeast to cross eastern Cuba Tuesday night and early Wednesday, beginning an acceleration while crossing the eastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos by early Wednesday, finally making a close pass as a weaker hurricane undergoing post-tropical transition early Friday. Obviously, catastrophic damage is a certainty on Jamaica, and major damage in parts of eastern Cuba (as well as Haiti, close enough to the path), and significant damage in the eastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos. Bermuda will fare somewhat better with a weaker storm by the time it passes there. I’ve linked a colleague’s blog as the first comment below which in additional to a take on the forecast for our area, has more expansive information on the hurricane. Back here in southeastern New England, we remain under the influence of high pressure as it slides from Quebec to Atlantic Canada early to mid week. An upper low also sits over the region and can help trigger a few showers in eastern areas this afternoon, though coverage will be isolated. This moves out by Tuesday as the first of two low pressure areas triggered by a deeper trough moving in from the west develops to our south, but passes out to sea. It will be close enough to enhance our northeasterly air flow later Tuesday into Wednesday with some low clouds off the ocean and perhaps some patches of drizzle. There can be enough dry air involved for partial sun as well. Above that will be a high to mid level cloud shield Tuesday night and Wednesday associated with the initial storm well to our south. Some of the rain from that may just make it to the South Coast at some point during Wednesday, but it would be very light and spotty. A second, stronger storm will take near the coast well to our south, and the track of this one should be to our west Thursday night and early Friday. This would bring a shorter-duration but moderate to heavy slug of rain through our region sometime between late day Thursday and daybreak Friday. The final details on timing and intensity still need to be ironed out over the next few days. This set-up would allow drying to take place during the day Friday, which would be fairly mild in comparison to the days leading up to it, but breezy as well with a wind having switched around to the west behind the storm system. This is decent news for the Friday evening trick-or-treat plans for Halloween. I’ll talk about this in more detail as we get closer to it as well.

TODAY: Sunny start, then variably cloudy. A pop-up shower possible mid to late afternoon favoring the I-95 belt eastward. Highs 50-57. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouds decrease. Lows 36-43. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunshine, then clouds return northeast to southwest later in the day. Highs 48-55. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT / WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Patchy drizzle possible. Chance of light rain South Coast Wednesday. Lows 41-48. Highs 48-55. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Possible drizzle. Lows 43-50. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Rain develops south to north. Highs 50-57. Wind E 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with rain, heavy at times. Lows 48-55. Wind SE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas.

FRIDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 58-65. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 1-5)

Watch for passing systems to produce unsettled weather episodes November 2 and 4 with fair weather on the other days, based on current timing of a pattern of quick-moving systems. Temperatures variable will end up fairly close to normal for the period.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 6-10)

Next best shot at a passing unsettled weather system is late-period. Temperatures near to slightly below normal.

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 26-30)

High pressure drifts eastward from Quebec to Atlantic Canada through Monday then sits well to our northeast into the middle of the week. This will shift our surface flow from northerly today to northeasterly early to mid week. Meanwhile, upper level low pressure over the region today and Monday continues to cause areas of clouds, most of which are benign but a few of which can produce pop-up showers with the aid of diurnal heating on Monday. During this time, a larger scale blocking pattern sets up low pressure to our south, and an initial storm system is set to travel out to sea to our south later Tuesday through Wednesday, but be close enough to slightly increase our northeasterly air flow between itself and the high pressure area in Atlantic Canada. While the storm’s precipitation will stay well south, the marine flow will likely deliver our area a lot of stratus cloud cover and perhaps some drizzle at times later Tuesday and Wednesday. If enough dry air is able to work into that northeasterly flow from eastern Canada, the effects of the low level moisture (stratus / drizzle) would be reduced. As the initial storm to the south slips out to sea, a second one will ignite when northern jet stream energy joins it later Wednesday and Thursday, and the resultant low pressure area, driven by a broad upper trough, has a much better opportunity to move northward into our region, delivering widespread rain by later Thursday, based on current expected timing. Well to the south, we now watch rapidly-intensifying Hurricane Melissa set to bring devastating impacts to Jamaica and major impacts to Haiti, the Dominican Republic, eastern Cuba, and eastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos over the next few days, before it is pulled into the open western Atlantic and never becomes a factor in the weather on the US East Coast.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 51-58. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 36-43. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Chance of a shower mainly mid to late afternoon. Highs 50-57. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 36-43. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun gives way to clouds. Coastal drizzle possible late. Highs 48-55. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT / WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Patchy drizzle possible. Lows 41-48. Highs 48-55. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Possible drizzle. Lows 43-50. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Rain develops south to north. Highs 50-57. Wind E 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 31 – NOVEMBER 4)

Current expectations are for low pressure to take a track just west of our region early on October 31 with a wet start to the day then drying out as the wind shifts around to west as the system lifts to the north. This would salvage the weather for trick-or-treat that evening if the timing is quick enough with breezy, dry, and not-too-chilly conditions. More on this as we head through the week. Early days of November are seasonably cool with mostly fair weather but an unsettled interlude potential about November 2.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 5-9)

Low pressure may bring a period of wet weather again to start this period followed by mainly dry conditions. Temperatures near to slightly below normal.

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 25-29)

A rain-free but coolish final weekend of October will be produced by surface high pressure in Quebec and upper level low pressure lingering over New England. We’ll see some areas of cloudiness – a passing disturbance will produce one in northeastern MA and southeastern NH to start the day today before some diurnal cumulus / stratocumulus return later. Meanwhile a passing disturbance well to the south will toss a shield of high and mid level clouds across our region from west to east during tonight which exits early Sunday, but we’ll contend with additional diurnal cumulus / stratocumulus again on Sunday. By Monday, the high pressure area in Quebec migrates eastward toward Nova Scotia and upper level low pressure remains in place. Solar heating that day can be enough tip the balance that the diurnal clouds produce a few isolated showers, so that will be something to watch for. As this is going on, a large scale split flow pattern is in place and the northern jet stream will make a first attempt to phase with a jet stream further to the south, producing an offshore storm Tuesday, far enough at sea to our southeast to keep any rain away, but this will help keep a northeasterly air flow going. A second energy merger and resultant storm will take place over the southeastern US by Wednesday. This system will approach from the south late Wednesday, and while at day 5 the timing is not certain, the chance of rain can increase here from south to north by late that day or at night. Fine-tuning to come.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 52-59. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Lots of clouds. Lows 36-43. Wind NW to N up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 51-58. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 36-43. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Chance of a shower mainly mid to late afternoon. Highs 48-55. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 36-43. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 48-55. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 37-44. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain late, mainly south. Highs 48-55. Wind NE 10-20 MPH, strongest coastal areas where higher gusts are possible.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 30 – NOVEMBER 3)

Low pressure is expected to track northward up the US East Coast and produce a wind/rain event here to start the period. The finer details of rainfall intensity, timing, wind direction and speed, and even temperature are to be determined by the low pressure area(s) ultimate track(s). I use the parenthesis there because this system may involve 2 low pressure areas that finally merge to one. Current thoughts are this system will lift northward by early October 31 and we’ll dry out but be breezy, salvaging the weather for “trick or treat” that evening. Still leaning toward fair weather November 1, unsettled weather November 2, with a return to fair weather November 3, but lower confidence on what goes on during that time frame. NOTE: Not ignoring the existence of TS Melissa in the Caribbean, forecast to eventually become a major hurricane and bring major to catastrophic impact to Jamaica, and major impact to Haiti, the D.R., eastern Cuba, the eastern Bahamas, and the Turks & Caicos Islands in the days ahead. This system will not be a factor in our weather as it is very likely to move northeastward into the open Atlantic after impacting those areas.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 4-8)

Low pressure may bring a period of wet weather from sometime late November 4 to early November 6. Low confidence forecast. Temperatures near to slightly below normal.

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 24-28)

Upper level low pressure that sits over our area now will drift east but be “replaced” by another one over the weekend into the beginning of next week. This keeps us from having days that are very warm, and also keeps days from being totally sunny, as the pool of cold air aloft triggers cloud development. There should be enough instability for isolated to scattered showers this afternoon and again during Monday, while during the weekend the clouds will be mainly of the “fair weather” variety, though more abundant Saturday than Sunday. When we get to Tuesday, you’ll get your first hint of how I think next week’s much-talked-about storm threat is going to go, because I suspect we’ll see increasing high cloudiness from the south ahead of a developing low pressure system down the coast. We may still see some lower cloud pop-ups due to lingering chilly air aloft as well, but at this point I expect Tuesday to be a rain-free day. (More on the storm threat in the next section, but first the detailed forecast for the next five days…)

TODAY: Sunshine to start then a sun/cloud blend with isolated to scattered afternoon showers mainly from the I-90 belt northward. Highs 56-63. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Lots of clouds early, then they dissipate. Lows 36-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

SATURDAY: Early full sun, then lots of clouds limiting the sun midday on. Highs 55-62. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clouds decrease again. Lows 36-43. Wind NW to N diminishing to under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny start, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 53-60. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 36-43. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: High clouds filter the sun while diurnal clouds pop-up and may produce a few rain showers including the chance of small hail. Highs 55-62. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Lots of clouds. Lows 38-45. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Clouds and limited sun. Highs 53-60. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 29 – NOVEMBER 2)

Putting aside all the outside influences, all the “model variability” etc., getting right to how I think next week’s “interesting” pattern evolves. First, I suspect that after causing some major rain and wind in Jamaica and eventually eastern Cuba, Hurricane Melissa will make a beeline for the open Atlantic and be far from a potential factor in East Coast (including New England) weather. What we watch for our area is the evolution of a storm system along the East Coast associated with a blocking pattern – high pressure eastern Canada, low pressure US Northeast and Mid Atlantic. I think the evolution of this system is quick, and we will be watching for impact from rain and wind in our area to start this period (Wed Oct 29), with a maturing / filling low pressure area causing lingering showers the next day (Thu Oct 30) and lifting north of the region by Halloween (Fri Oct 31) at which time we’d be in a drier westerly air flow with fair but breezy weather. With lower confidence I lean toward a mixed first weekend of November on the first 2 days of the month with fair weather Saturday and unsettled weather Sunday. More on that in time…

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 3-7)

Lower than average confidence forecast leans toward a mid period precipitation threat and fair weather at the start and end of the period with temperatures generally seasonable to a bit cooler than average.

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 23-27)

Upper level low pressure drifts across the Northeast through Friday then ambles eastward this weekend as high pressure builds in. This is unchanged from yesterday’s outlook. We’ll see diurnal cloud development daily. Disturbances moving around the upper low will trigger rain showers that should stay mostly well north and west of Boston later today but are possible anywhere mainly north of I-90 later Friday. The weekend will not have the rain shower threat due to the building in of the high pressure area. Early next week, we’ll be closely eyeing a pattern of high pressure to the north and low pressure to the south. I’m not going to get into all the different “scenarios” which can really just be read as inconsistent model runs. It’s the overall pattern that matters and the details will present themselves closer to that time. For now, I expect Monday will not see impact from low pressure to our south, which should be well south, but a lobe of upper level energy from the north which can trigger a few afternoon showers of rain and even some small hail (yes day 5 is risky to forecast hail but I see the potential set-up there – something to watch).

TODAY: Sun / cloud intervals. A stray shower may reach southwestern NH and north central MA late. Highs 58-65. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 41-48. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a rain shower in the afternoon, especially north of I-90. Highs 57-64. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 37-44. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 55-62. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clouds dissipate Lows 36-43. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloud/sun mix. Highs 56-63. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 36-43. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: High clouds filter the sun while diurnal clouds pop-up and may produce a few rain showers including the chance of small hail. Highs 55-62. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 28- NOVEMBER 1)

Watching the pattern of low pressure to the south and high pressure to the north for which, if any, storm systems get far enough north to impact our region. More detail to come.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 2-6)

Same pattern from previous period remains in place to start this one, then eases up with a more tranquil look, but low confidence forecast. More to come.

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 22-26)

A broad trough / upper low dominates the Great Lakes and Northeast and will continue to do so through Friday. A low pressure area and frontal system rotating around this upper low brings our area another slug of rainfall this morning, and maybe a leftover shower this afternoon in what will otherwise turn out to be a mild and breezy day. A cooling trend sets in gradually over the next few days following this. Pop-up showers associated with the upper low should stay mainly west and north of our region Thursday, though one can make it into the hills of southwestern NH and possibly north central MA by late in the afternoon. Friday’s shower chance is slightly greater in the region, especially in the afternoon and north of I-90, but coverage will be limited to generally isolated to scattered. Canadian high pressure builds in with fair, cool weather this weekend as the upper low slides off to the east, but remains close enough to trigger the development of diurnal clouds both weekend days.

TODAY: Cloudy through mid morning with widespread showers, some heavy. Sun/cloud mix late morning on with a slight chance of a passing shower this afternoon, especially west and north of Boston. Highs 61-68. Wind S 5-15 MPH gusting 20-25 MPH, shifting to SW.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 41-48. Wind SW 5-15 MPH,.

THURSDAY: Sun / cloud intervals. A stray shower may reach southwestern NH and north central MA late. Highs 58-65. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 41-48. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a rain shower in the afternoon, especially north of I-90. Highs 57-64. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 37-44. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 55-62. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clouds dissipate Lows 36-43. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloud/sun mix. Highs 56-63. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 27-31)

A lot of “uncertainty” triggered mostly by varying model output solutions. While my forecast is not high confidence for these final 5 days of October, including Halloween, my leaning based on the pattern is for high pressure to be more dominant and hold low pressure mainly off to the south with a dry-leaning outlook.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 1-5)

Trend for this period is for a period of unsettled weather around the first weekend of November, then fair, cooler weather after that, but details are quite uncertain and forecast confidence remains low at this point. Monitoring guidance trends and overall pattern.

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 21-25)

A broad trough / upper low dominates the Great Lakes and Northeast and will continue to do so for the next several days (through Friday). After yesterday’s showery episode, we get a break today between systems, the next one bringing another round of showers from pre-dawn to late morning Wednesday. The upper low triggers diurnal cloud development again Thursday, but I think shower activity will occur north of the WHW forecast area. It’s on Friday that one more front / trough will swing through with an afternoon shower threat. High pressure builds toward the region behind all this with fair weather by the start of the weekend on Saturday.

TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 60-67. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear evening. Clouds arrive west to east overnight with rain showers by daybreak. Lows 50-57. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with showers likely morning. Sun/cloud mix afternoon. Highs 61-68. Wind S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to SW.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 41-48. Wind SW 5-15 MPH,.

THURSDAY: Sun / cloud intervals. Highs 58-65. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 41-48. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a rain shower in the afternoon. Highs 57-64. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 37-44. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 55-62. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 26-30)

High pressure dominates with fair weather to finish the final weekend of the month on October 26. Outlook is more uncertain thereafter. High pressure dominating southeastern Canada and northern New England may be strong enough to hold 1 or 2 low pressure areas (October 27 & 30) to our south, but this is uncertain. Leaning dry for now.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 31 – NOVEMBER 4)

Trend for this period is for a period of unsettled weather around the first weekend of November, but details are quite uncertain and forecast confidence is very low at this point. Monitoring guidance trends and overall pattern.

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 20-24)

The large scale pattern has become a little more dynamic, and the feature that will impact our weather here in southern New England will be a trough of low pressure drifting slowly eastward through the Upper Midwest / Great Lakes into New England over the next several days. Moving through this trough will be a series of low pressure areas and their associated frontal systems. One such low pressure area will crank up just to our west and north today, pushing a front through the region this morning to midday. Ahead of it will be a fairly robust line of widespread convective rainfall, some of it quite heavy, along with the potential for strong (locally damaging) wind gusts and embedded thunder. This band will move through the region from west southwest to east northeast this morning to very early afternoon before exiting. An area of drier air arriving behind it will trigger some partial clearing and we will likely see occasional sunshine for at least some of the region as we move through the afternoon hours. The windy conditions ahead of and during the passage of the convective line will ease up for a while, before a westerly breeze takes over. Look for a small area of high pressure to bring fair weather on Tuesday before the next lobe of low pressure moves through with more showery weather Wednesday. Similarly, a break occurs Thursday (I think shower chances are to our north) before one more trough brings the chance of a passing shower some time on Friday.

TODAY: Overcast through midday with widespread rain showers / downpours and potential thunderstorms. Breaking clouds with intervals of sun developing west to east afternoon. Highs 58-65. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, with the potential for wind squalls of 30 MPH or higher during the morning, becoming variable around 10 MPH for a while then W 5-15 MPH by mid to late afternoon from west to east.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 48-55. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Areas of fog early, otherwise partly sunny. Highs 57-64. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Rain showers arrive pre-dawn. Lows 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with morning rain showers. Breaking clouds midday on with additional rain showers possible. Highs 58-65. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH,.

THURSDAY: Sun / cloud intervals. Highs 57-64. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 41-48. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a rain shower. Highs 56-63. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 25-29)

High pressure brings dry weather for the October 25-26 weekend. Low pressure brings the chance for some unsettled weather during the first part of next week.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 30 – NOVEMBER 3)

Large scale pattern features a low pressure trough Great Lakes / Northeast with a couple chances of unsettled weather heading from the end of October to the start of November – details TBD.