DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 21-25)

A broad trough / upper low dominates the Great Lakes and Northeast and will continue to do so for the next several days (through Friday). After yesterday’s showery episode, we get a break today between systems, the next one bringing another round of showers from pre-dawn to late morning Wednesday. The upper low triggers diurnal cloud development again Thursday, but I think shower activity will occur north of the WHW forecast area. It’s on Friday that one more front / trough will swing through with an afternoon shower threat. High pressure builds toward the region behind all this with fair weather by the start of the weekend on Saturday.

TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 60-67. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear evening. Clouds arrive west to east overnight with rain showers by daybreak. Lows 50-57. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with showers likely morning. Sun/cloud mix afternoon. Highs 61-68. Wind S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to SW.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 41-48. Wind SW 5-15 MPH,.

THURSDAY: Sun / cloud intervals. Highs 58-65. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 41-48. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a rain shower in the afternoon. Highs 57-64. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 37-44. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 55-62. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 26-30)

High pressure dominates with fair weather to finish the final weekend of the month on October 26. Outlook is more uncertain thereafter. High pressure dominating southeastern Canada and northern New England may be strong enough to hold 1 or 2 low pressure areas (October 27 & 30) to our south, but this is uncertain. Leaning dry for now.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 31 – NOVEMBER 4)

Trend for this period is for a period of unsettled weather around the first weekend of November, but details are quite uncertain and forecast confidence is very low at this point. Monitoring guidance trends and overall pattern.

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 20-24)

The large scale pattern has become a little more dynamic, and the feature that will impact our weather here in southern New England will be a trough of low pressure drifting slowly eastward through the Upper Midwest / Great Lakes into New England over the next several days. Moving through this trough will be a series of low pressure areas and their associated frontal systems. One such low pressure area will crank up just to our west and north today, pushing a front through the region this morning to midday. Ahead of it will be a fairly robust line of widespread convective rainfall, some of it quite heavy, along with the potential for strong (locally damaging) wind gusts and embedded thunder. This band will move through the region from west southwest to east northeast this morning to very early afternoon before exiting. An area of drier air arriving behind it will trigger some partial clearing and we will likely see occasional sunshine for at least some of the region as we move through the afternoon hours. The windy conditions ahead of and during the passage of the convective line will ease up for a while, before a westerly breeze takes over. Look for a small area of high pressure to bring fair weather on Tuesday before the next lobe of low pressure moves through with more showery weather Wednesday. Similarly, a break occurs Thursday (I think shower chances are to our north) before one more trough brings the chance of a passing shower some time on Friday.

TODAY: Overcast through midday with widespread rain showers / downpours and potential thunderstorms. Breaking clouds with intervals of sun developing west to east afternoon. Highs 58-65. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, with the potential for wind squalls of 30 MPH or higher during the morning, becoming variable around 10 MPH for a while then W 5-15 MPH by mid to late afternoon from west to east.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 48-55. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Areas of fog early, otherwise partly sunny. Highs 57-64. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Rain showers arrive pre-dawn. Lows 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with morning rain showers. Breaking clouds midday on with additional rain showers possible. Highs 58-65. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH,.

THURSDAY: Sun / cloud intervals. Highs 57-64. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 41-48. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a rain shower. Highs 56-63. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 25-29)

High pressure brings dry weather for the October 25-26 weekend. Low pressure brings the chance for some unsettled weather during the first part of next week.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 30 – NOVEMBER 3)

Large scale pattern features a low pressure trough Great Lakes / Northeast with a couple chances of unsettled weather heading from the end of October to the start of November – details TBD.

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 19-23)

High pressure drifts offshore today and a southerly air flow develops and strengthens. This will make a cool, calm morning (with a nice sunrise including a crescent moon and venus while it was still dark enough) into a breezy, warmer midday and afternoon with plenty of sunshine, though clouds will start to increase later ahead of our next bout of unsettled weather. This is due to a trough and low pressure system moving into the Great Lakes, and its frontal system which will march our way from the west tonight into Monday, and develop a new low pressure area on it. This will bring a band of rain into the region that will move through but can also produce a few additional showers as the new low wraps up and passes through Upstate NY into southeastern Canada later Monday. A narrow area of high pressure brings fair weather Tuesday, but with the mean trough position still over the Great Lakes and Northeast, the next low pressure system will quickly move in for another showery day on Wednesday. This set-up looks similar to Monday but a little less potent on the low pressure area. Fair weather arrives for Thursday behind that system.

TODAY: Sunshine gives way to clouds later the day. Highs 65-72. Wind SW increasing to 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouding up. Rain showers probable west of I-95 by daybreak. Lows 51-58. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy with rain showers likely including the slight chance of a thunderstorm morning and midday, then breaking clouds and partial sun but with a chance of an additional rain shower afternoon. Highs 58-65. Wind variable to W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 48-55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Areas of fog early, otherwise partly sunny. Highs 57-64. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Showers arrive pre-dawn. Lows 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with morning showers. Breaking clouds midday on with additional rain showers possible. Highs 58-65. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH,.

THURSDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 57-64. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 24-28)

A weak trough / front can bring a shower October 24 before high pressure brings dry weather for the October 25-26 weekend. Another low pressure system threatens unsettled weather after that.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 29 – NOVEMBER 2)

Large scale pattern features a low pressure trough Great Lakes / Northeast with a couple chances of unsettled weather heading from the end of October to the start of November – details TBD.

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 18-22)

High pressure dominates our weather this weekend with dry conditions. Early this morning is chilly (30s inland, 40s coast) as the high building in dropped the winds and allowed for radiational cooling to occur. Today, we see a decent temperature recovery into the 60s (mostly lower to middle 60s for high temps). Tonight’s temps don’t drop as much with a developing southwesterly breeze as the high slides offshore. This allows Sunday to warm further into the 60s (mostly middle to upper 60s for high temps) but with a more noticeable breeze than today. You’ll see patches of high clouds today trying to work in from the northwest but they will be basically obliterated by dry air associated with a high pressure ridge aloft. As this ridge slides to the east on Sunday, the intrusion of these clouds patches will become more successful, and we’ll start to lose the sun before it sets. The clouds thicken up in earnest Sunday night ahead of an approaching trough and frontal system. As previously mentioned, a wave of low pressure is going to form on this front and its position will determine the details of Monday’s unsettled weather – a rain event – but for how long? I’m looking for an solid band of rain showers and maybe an embedded thunderstorm too. This should cross the region in the morning and midday hours. Strongest indications are that the low pressure wave is going to track just north of the WHW forecast area. This would allow a dry slot to work in behind that initial band of rain showers, with breaking clouds and just the chance of a passing rain shower for the remainder of the afternoon on Monday. This is my strong leaning for the evolution of it, but I’ll watch it for any last-minute surprises. Despite bring a a broad low pressure trough, we will have a small ridge of high pressure at the surface work into our region Tuesday with a fair weather interlude, before the next low pressure and frontal system bring a return to showery weather for part of Wednesday. Leaning toward the first half of the day for the most likely wet weather to occur, and clearing it out late.

TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 61-68. Wind W to variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Lows 42-49. Wind variable to SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Rain showers probable west of I-95 by daybreak. Lows 51-58. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy with rain showers likely including the slight chance of a thunderstorm morning and midday, then breaking clouds and partial sun but with a chance of an additional rain shower afternoon. Highs 58-65. Wind variable to W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 48-55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Areas of fog early, otherwise partly sunny. Highs 57-64. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Showers arrive pre-dawn. Lows 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with morning showers. Breaking clouds midday on. Highs 58-65. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 23-27)

We stay in the mean trough position but the overall pattern is more dry than wet. A frontal boundary can bring a shower about October 24 but it looks generally dry in general through the October 25-26 weekend before a rain chance arrives at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 28 – NOVEMBER 1)

Staying with the idea of a trough in the Great Lakes / Northeast, but limited rain chances and more often than not seeing dry weather here. Details TBD.

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 17-21)

All that’s left of the ocean storm that sent clouds into eastern areas yesterday, provided a really nice sunset for some areas, and sent some showers across Cape Cod yesterday, are lingering clouds on Cape Cod for a part of today, but these will clear out as the storm moves further away out to sea during the day. A north-south elongated high pressure area builds toward our region today with fair weather but a cool breeze, then the high builds overhead tonight and Saturday with a chilly night and Saturday morning, then a milder afternoon Saturday. The high then slides offshore Sunday with a modest warm-up. Sunshine will be fairly abundant but with patches of clouds around from low pressure heading through the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes this weekend, with more cloudiness evident as we get to later on Sunday. The initial low pressure area will send a front in our direction Sunday night and Monday, but another low pressure area will develop along that front and quickly strengthen, delivering some rainfall on Monday. Currently, it appears that while this will be a relatively small low pressure area, it will mature right overhead and this can prolong the rainfall threat throughout the daylight hours of Monday, instead of what earlier looked like it could be a quicker cut-off and partial clearing. We should get some partial clearing in by Tuesday with a weak ridge of high pressure between that system and another low not far behind it, threading the needle a bit.

TODAY: Lingering cloudiness Cape Cod this morning before clearing there. Sunshine elsewhere with a few passing fair weather clouds during the afternoon. Highs 56-63. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing late-day.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 35-42. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 61-68. Wind W to variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Lows 42-49. Wind variable to SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Rain probable west of I-95 by daybreak. Lows 51-58. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy with rain likely including the slight chance of a thunderstorm morning and midday, then intermittent rain and drizzle with areas of fog afternoon. Highs 58-65 in the morning but may fall back slightly during the afternoon. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clouds break. Areas of fog. Lows 48-55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Areas of fog early, otherwise partly sunny. Highs 57-64. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 22-26)

A broad trough over the Northeast provides opportunities for showers as low pressure and frontal systems move through the region October 22 and 24. High pressure builds in with fair weather for the October 25-26 weekend. Temperatures near to slightly above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 27-31)

There’s been a lot of inconsistency in the guidance between runs of the same model and especially between different models, and this is never helpful in using this guidance to determine the medium range pattern. When I see drastic changes day to day I tend to leave my outlook similar to the previous day, and this is currently for an overall drier look to the pattern but still a system or two to watch for brief unsettled weather at some point. More defining and refining of the outlook to come…

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 16-20)

An ocean storm east of New England makes the westernmost progress on a cyclonic loop today, tossing some cloudiness southwestward into our region, and some rain shower activity mainly across Cape Cod this afternoon, before it pulls back to the southeast and east away from the region tonight and Friday. North-south elongated high pressure to our west helps create a gusty breeze today into Friday between itself and the offshore storm, but as the high builds eastward the wind will slacken and become light later Friday into Saturday with fair weather. The high will slide offshore by Sunday and while fair weather continues, it will become breezy but milder. We will see some patchy high and mid level clouds over the weekend from upstream low pressure, but that will still be far enough away to not threaten any weekend wet weather. That will hold off until early Monday when a potent low pressure area will wheel into the Great Lakes and send a frontal system across our region.

TODAY: Sunny start then clouds move into NH Seacoast and eastern MA midday into afternoon with rain showers possible mainly Cape Cod. Highs 55-62. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas / Cape Cod.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy, then clearing. Lows 37-44. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 56-63. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 35-42. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 61-68. Wind W to variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Lows 42-49. Wind variable to SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 65-72. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Rain probable before daybreak. Lows 51-58. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy with rain likely in the morning. Variably cloudy with a chance of a shower in the afternoon. Highs 60-67. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 21-25)

A broad trough of low pressure and a couple surface lows / frontal systems keep our weather on the unsettled side through the middle of next week with a couple rounds of wet weather quite likely. May dry out at the end of the period but timing is uncertain on that. Temperatures near to slightly above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 26-30)

Overall outlook is drier but still a quick unsettled period of two in a pattern that brings disturbances west to east across the region. Temperatures variable but averaging close to normal for the period.

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 15-19)

Upper level low pressure crosses our region today and Thursday while an offshore storm does a long cyclonic loop to our east. All the while high pressure, elongated north-to-south, will be located to our west. This set-up brings us variable cloud cover with one disturbance moving through from the northwest with the upper trough today and the offshore storm tossing some clouds back our way at times through Thursday. Can’t rule out a few east-coastal (especially Cape Cod area) rain showers as well. Finally, the offshore low pulls back east and high pressure builds in from the west Friday into Saturday while the upper trough pulls away and a ridge of high pressure builds over the region during this time frame too. This provides fair weather, still a bit breezy and cool for Friday then more tranquil and milder Saturday. Sunday, everything continues eastward, high pressure ridge still overhead aloft and surface high pressure nudging offshore, and this is a set-up for a fair, breezy, and warmer day to finish off the weekend.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 57-64. Wind N increasing to 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Rain showers possible especially I-95 eastward. Lows 40-47. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. A coastal rain shower possible, favoring Cape Cod. Highs 55-62. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas / Cape Cod.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy, then clearing. Lows 37-44. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 56-63. Wind NW 10-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 35-42. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 61-68. Wind W to variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Lows 42-49. Wind variable to SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 65-72. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 20-24)

Low pressure moves in with a rain change early next week, followed by a midweek drier interlude though an upper trough can trigger a few spot showers. Watching another low that may approach late next week. Uncertain outlook here…

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 25-29)

Somewhat active pattern with another one or two low pressure systems that can bring unsettled weather, but the details of looking out this far can’t be determined. No major temperature extremes indicated.

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 14-18)

A coastal / ocean storm delivered some decent and borderline excessive rainfall amounts to some areas yesterday and last night, with amounts maxing out in the 4 to nearly 8 inch range, with the highest amounts fairly localized due to persistent banding of heavy rainfall due to quasi-stationary convergence zones. The short range model guidance handled this well, but usually will under-forecast the absolute maximum amounts – only by a little in this case. Today, as expected, that broad low pressure area will begin to pull away from the region, driven by the same blocking pattern that allowed it to lift northward into our region initially. The last of the meaningful rainfall occurs from Boston to Cape Cod through midday, including a few more thunderstorms for Cape Cod this morning. Elsewhere, just some lighter showers and drizzle will be around, with a drying trend from north to south as we approach midday. Breaks in the clouds may work into areas especially west and north of Boston during this afternoon, and the sun can make an appearance in some of these areas before it sets. Watch for one more shower potential northwest to southeast early this evening with the passage of a trough. Behind that, some more clearing will take place with a weak ridge of high pressure moving in. The gusty winds that we had will be long gone, and the nearly calm overnight will result in a quick cool-down and patches of radiation fog. Wednesday’s weather will feature a fair amount of cloudiness of the high to middle variety with an upper disturbance moving through from northwest to southeast. The wind will pick up again, and with this wind blowing over Cape Cod Bay it can create some additional lower clouds for Cape Cod during the day. Currently, my thought process is that we will get through the daylight without any rainfall, despite the disturbance. As we head into Thursday and Friday, we still find ourselves with a gusty breeze as the offshore storm still spins around out there, maybe even making a temporary move back toward the west, enough to keep the wind going. Upper level low pressure crosses overhead during this time as well. Variable amounts of cloudiness can be expected Thursday with drier air allowing for more sun on Friday. While I feel it’s a low probability, I can’t rule out a passing shower in the coastal plain sometime Thursday. Temperatures will be running a little below normal for this time of year through Friday, but will rebound to near to above normal with fair weather Saturday as a ridge of high pressure builds into our region. While abundant sun is expected Saturday, we may see some patches of high clouds moving across the sky well in advance of a low pressure area that will be heading through the Upper Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes.

TODAY: Cloudy morning with areas of drizzle and showers – the most numerous showers Boston southward with a chance of thunderstorms Cape Cod. Breaking clouds during this afternoon, especially north and west of Boston with a few intervals of sun are possible. Highs 53-60. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH except 20-30 MPH Cape Cod including a few higher gusts through midday, gradually diminishing later and shifting more NW.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with an additional rain shower possible during the evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Fog patches likely. Lows 43-50. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Lots of clouds / limited sun. Highs 57-64. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Rain showers possible especially I-95 eastward. Lows 40-47. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. A coastal rain shower possible, favoring Cape Cod. Highs 55-62. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas / Cape Cod.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 37-44. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 56-63. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 35-42. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 61-68. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 19-23)

West-to-east flow pattern in the larger scale. High pressure ridge over our area brings fair weather and above normal temperatures to finish the weekend on October 19 though some clouds will be around. The aforementioned low moving into the Great Lakes pushes a frontal system across the region with rain showers for a portion of October 20. Heading into midweek we remain in a trough position with a slight cool-down and slight-chance for passing showers but with dry weather most of the time.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 24-28)

A progressive / zonal pattern expected. While timing is uncertain, one or two systems can bring brief wet weather threats while temperatures display a variable pattern of ups and downs.

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 13-17)

A coastal storm brings unpleasant weather but beneficial rain to our region today into Tuesday as a broad low pressure circulation with a couple centers spins about to our south. The heaviest and most widespread rain has already fallen, in general, across most areas, but some additional moderate to bursts of heavier rain can occur today with a trend toward a more intermittent rainfall pattern heading through tonight and Tuesday before it tapers off from northwest to southeast. Coastal flooding issues near and at high tide times continue for a couple more cycles before subsiding, along with the same tendency for the wind. The larger scale pattern features blocking, and this will hold that low pressure circulation offshore to our southeast then east through midweek while an upper low slowly drifts across the Northeast. Additional showers can occur, favoring Wednesday night and part of Thursday in areas near and east of I-95. By Friday, the pattern is transitioning to a progressive one with a zonal (west to east) flow evolving. Our weather here will be fair, breezy, and cool as high pressure builds our way from the west and low pressure to the east finally starts to move further away.

TODAY: Overcast. Rain of varying intensity. Slight chance of thunder. Highs 51-58. Wind NE 10-20 MPH with gusts 30+ MPH inland and 20-30 MPH with gusts 40+ MPH coast.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Intermittent rain/drizzle. Lows 47-54. Wind NE 10-20 MPH with gusts to 30 MPH inland and 20-30 MPH with gusts to 40 MPH coast.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Intermittent rain/drizzle tapering off gradually from northwest to southeast. Highs 53-60. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas and higher elevations.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with an additional rain shower possible during the evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 45-52. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing overnight.

WEDNESDAY: Lots of clouds / limited sun. Highs 57-64. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Rain showers possible especially I-95 eastward. Lows 40-47. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. A coastal rain shower possible, favoring Cape Cod. Highs 55-62. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas / Cape Cod.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 37-44. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 56-63. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 18-22)

Large scale pattern becomes zonal / progressive. A large area of low pressure moves into the Great Lakes during the October 18-19 weekend sending some clouds our way at times, but the weather looks dry with moderating temperatures. Finally a frontal system from that low brings a rain shower chance October 20, followed by fair and slightly cooler weather behind it into the middle of next week as low pressure moves through eastern Canada.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 23-27)

A progressive / zonal pattern expected. While timing is uncertain, one or two systems can bring brief wet weather threats while temperatures display a variable pattern of ups and downs.

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 12-16)

All is on track in terms of expectation for a storm system that will impact our region over the next few days. The synoptic set-up is high pressure to our north, with an initial low pressure off the US Southeast Coast today, giving way to a newly developed low offshore to our south, which will do a cyclonic loop off the northern Mid Atlantic Coast Monday, before a third center takes over further to the east and the entire circulation begins to pinwheel out to sea, slowly, Tuesday into midweek, leaving our region on the western side of an upper level low pressure associated with the storm system through midweek. Backing up a bit, as far as the regional impact from the storm system, we’ll see a rain shield expand northward across our region today, but it will take most of the day to do so, with areas to the north staying rain-free longest. By day’s end, it will cover the region, and then it’s pretty steadily raining and drizzling into Tuesday morning from there, before it tapers off from northwest to southeast during the day Tuesday. During the peak of the system on Monday, I can’t rule out a couple of embedded heavier bands of rain that can include thunder as well. We will have a northeast to east wind at moderate to strong speeds, strongest along the coast (strongest of all over Cape Cod) and this will result in minor to moderate coastal flooding in areas prone to it near high tide times over several cycles tonight through Monday night. If there’s some good news, it’s most obviously that any rainfall we get is beneficial in battling an ongoing long-term dry spell in the region. While drought is far worse in northern New England, widespread abnormally dry conditions and areas of moderate drought exist in southern New England, and the rainfall is welcomed for helping to reduce that. You might think “why does that matter now that the growing season is ending or over?” and the answer is, the bigger our deficit remains going into and through winter, the harder it is to climb out of the dryness heading into the next growing season. Any any rain (and eventually snow) that we can get from now through the winter months will aid the cause, so long as it does not become excessive.

TODAY: Overcast thickens – rain arrives from south to north by the end of the day. Highs 56-63. Wind NE increasing to 5-15 MPH inland, 15-25 MPH coast, with higher gusts especially coast and south late-day.

TONIGHT / MONDAY / MONDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Rain and drizzle with areas of fog. Slight chance of thunderstorms. Temperature fall to 52-59 then generally steady. Wind NE to E 15-25 MPH inland with gusts 30+ MPH and 25-35 MPH coastal areas with gusts 40+ MPH.

TUESDAY: Rain/drizzle lingers under overcast in the morning. Breaking clouds and a possible leftover rain shower in the afternoon. Highs 53-60. Wind shifting to N 15-25 MPH, strongest coastal areas with a few higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with an additional rain shower possible during the evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 42-49. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing overnight.

WEDNESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 55-62. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A passing shower of rain, possibly mixed with wet snow in higher elevations. Lows 36-43. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. A coastal rain shower possible, favoring Cape Cod. Highs 55-62. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 17-21)

Large scale pattern transitions from blocking to progressive / zonal. High pressure brings in fair weather early to mid period. A low pressure system moving into the Great Lakes extends its warm front our way and may bring clouds at some point over the October 18-19 weekend which starts cool then moderates. Cold front from that low brings a rain shower threat late period followed by a turn back to cooler weather.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 22-26)

A progressive / zonal pattern expected. While timing is uncertain, one or two systems can bring brief wet weather threats while temperatures display a variable pattern of ups and downs.

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 11-15)

A stratus cloud layer developed and moved up into much of our region overnight / early this morning in response to some increasing moisture and a temperature inversion (warm above cool) at low levels. Today’s weather will be governed by high pressure which has now moved offshore to allow a milder southerly air flow, which brought in the moisture for the cloud cover – more extensive than I expected. These clouds will give way to more sun as we go through the morning to midday it will be quite a nice day overall, but even with that, a shield of high clouds will advance in from the south filtering the sun later in the day in advance of a low pressure system, much talked about this week, that will bring us a bout of rainy, windy weather later Sunday to early Tuesday. Not much has changed with the expectations for this system. The low pressure area that makes up the “storm” is actually going to consist of a broad overall circulation with several low centers within it, a first off the Carolinas which gives way to a second just east of the Delmarva and finally a third to the southeast of New England during the life cycle of the event. A tight pressure gradient between the low pressure circulation to the south and high pressure to the north will produce a solid onshore flow which can lead to minor to moderate coastal flooding near and at high tide times over several cycles from late Sunday to early Tuesday. Rainfall from the system arrives from south to north during the course of Sunday afternoon as it battles dry air at mid levels initially, before overcoming it. Rainfall continues generally unabated through Monday and then tapers off from north to south as the storm system begins to pull away on Tuesday. Any rain that occurs us beneficial for our long-term dry spell. Behind this system comes a chilly northerly air flow and we’ll still be under an upper trough so some clouds and maybe a passing rain shower can occur Wednesday, otherwise it will be a generally dry day.

TODAY: Low clouds break for sun, then increasing high clouds south to north later in the day. Highs 63-70. Wind SW to S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouds increase and thicken south to north. Lows 45-52. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Overcast. Rain arrives south to north afternoon. Highs 55-62. Wind E increasing to 10-20 MPH except 15-30 MPH South Coast / Cape Cod.

SUNDAY NIGHT / MONDAY / MONDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Rain and drizzle with areas of fog. Temperature fall to 48-55 then steady. Wind NE to E 15-25 MPH inland with gusts 30+ MPH and 25-35 MPH coastal areas with gusts 40+ MPH.

TUESDAY: Rain/drizzle lingers under overcast in the morning. Breaking clouds and a possible leftover rain shower in the afternoon. Highs 53-60. Wind NE 5-15 MPH inland and 15-25 MPH coast in the morning, N to NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts afternoon.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 42-49. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. A passing rain shower possible. Highs 55-62. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 16-20)

Upper level low pressure can bring a few showers of rain and even some higher elevation mix if early enough in the day October 16. High pressure nudges the upper low away and brings in fair weather after that, but watching for a large low pressure system to enter the Great Lakes region around the October 18-19 weekend and this may start to send some cloudiness our way and eventually the potential for some unsettled weather. This is part of the transition from a blocking pattern to a progressive pattern.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 21-25)

Shift to a more zonal (west to east) flow pattern with some up and down temperatures and a couple quick rain shower opportunities.

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 10-14)

Frost and areas of hard freeze have occurred early this morning away from coastal locations and urban centers due to a combination of dry air, clear sky, and calm wind with high pressure overhead overnight. Today will be a bright and cool day but with little wind in comparison to the gusty breeze of yesterday, as high pressure sits atop the region. The high will sink to the south and east tonight into Saturday, allowing a southwesterly air flow to warm it up a little bit by Saturday afternoon, which will also be a fair weather day. You will notice the appearance of high clouds from the south later Saturday ahead of a storm system down the coast. This storm is destined to move northward far enough to throw its rainfall into our region, along with a gusty wind by later Sunday through Monday. The storm will never make it all the way here though. In fact, the blocking pattern in place to help it exist and move up this way will also be what forces it back to the south and southeast Tuesday, when conditions will slowly improve here. Before that, though, during the late Sunday to late Monday / early Tuesday time frame, a few rounds of coastal flooding can occur at high tide times due to the moderate to strong onshore air flow with the storm. Rainfall may be moderate overall, with some pockets of heavier rainfall. This will benefit in reducing the long-term dry conditions, but will not put them to an end.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 56-63. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Fog patches in low elevations. Lows 33-40. Wind calm then SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clouds increase south to north. Lows 45-52. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Clouds thicken. Rain arrives south to north afternoon. Highs 55-62. Wind E increasing to 10-20 MPH except 15-30 MPH South Coast / Cape Cod.

SUNDAY NIGHT / MONDAY / MONDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Rain and drizzle with areas of fog. Temperature fall to 48-55 then steady. Wind NE to E 15-25 MPH inland and 25-35 MPH coastal areas including higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Rain/drizzle lingers under overcast in the morning. Breaking clouds and a possible leftover rain shower in the afternoon. Highs 53-60. Wind NE 5-15 MPH inland and 15-25 MPH coast in the morning, N to NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts afternoon.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 15-19)

The blocking pattern in place hangs on for a while and another disturbance may bring additional showers October 15 to early October 16 – details TBD. Drier weather follows as it looks now. Temperatures near to slightly below normal for the period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 20-24)

Shift to a more zonal (west to east) flow pattern with some up and down temperatures and a couple quick rain shower opportunities.

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 9-13)

A cold front moved across our region yesterday delivering a light to moderate rainfall and a much cooler air mass. A large area of high pressure to our west will build toward the region today, but the pressure gradient between it and a storm to our northeast will create a gusty breeze to emphasize the already below normal temperatures, and big contrast from the well above normal temperatures recently experienced. Tonight, high pressure builds right over the region, providing perfect radiational cooling conditions, and resulting in a widespread frost and scattered freeze, with the exception of the immediate coast where ocean water keeps it slightly warmer, and urban centers due to the “heat island effect”. This high pressure area will stay parked over the region Friday – a cool but tranquil day with lots of sunshine. It will then drift offshore Saturday with fair weather continuing, and a milder afternoon after a chilly start. After this, a big change is coming as a storm system forms down the coast and drifts up the coast toward New England. While the low center never actually gets this far north due to atmospheric blocking that will stop it in its tracks before sending it back to the south, it will come up against a high pressure area to the north, increasing the wind from the east and northeast, and its rain shield does look like it will make its way far enough north to give the region some needed moisture later Sunday through Monday. Currently, it remains to be seen just how much rain occurs. More certain are potential coastal flooding issues at the times of high tide late weekend and Monday. Some additional details will be provided in upcoming posts.

TODAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 55-62. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clear. Fog patches in low elevations. Lows 27-34 inland, 35-42 coast. Wind N under 10 MPH then calm.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 56-63. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Fog patches in low elevations. Lows 33-40. Wind calm then SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clouds arrive south to north. Lows 45-52. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Clouds thicken. Rain arrives south to north afternoon / evening. Highs 55-62. Wind E increasing to 10-20 MPH except 15-30 MPH South Coast / Cape Cod.

SUNDAY NIGHT / MONDAY: Overcast. Rain and drizzle with areas of fog. Temperature fall to 50-57 then steady. Wind NE to E 15-25 MPH, strongest coastal areas including some higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 14-18)

Storm system pulls away gradually October 14 with slow improvement expected, but may begin wet, windy and chilly. Remainder of the period finds our region on the western side of upper level low pressure and it’s a cool, mostly dry pattern but can’t rule out a few pop up showers either. This is a generalized outlook with fine-tuning to come.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 19-23)

Shift to a more zonal (west to east) flow pattern with some up and down temperatures and a couple quick rain shower opportunities.

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 8-12)

A cold front moves through the region today bringing showery weather, which tapers off from west to east this afternoon with a late-day clearing trend, especially from the I-95 belt westward. Clearing will take longer to reach the coastal plain, especially southeastern MA and RI, but these areas do so this evening. The front leads a much cooler air mass into the region, driven by Canadian high pressure, which while centered to our west will help generate a gusty breeze from the north tonight and Thursday, but as the high center builds over our region Thursday night, the wind will drop off, and the temperature will drop down. Some areas see a freeze, many areas see frost, and some see the end of the growing season Friday morning, though it will be a little “less chilly” along the coast where freeze and frost is less likely. Fair weather continues with a cool day Friday and a milder Saturday as the high slides offshore. Sunday, low pressure to our south will be drifting northward, and the question has been and remains “how far north”. I do think at this point our region being blanketed by its overcast is quite likely. There is also a decent chance that its rain shield makes its way into at least a portion of our region before the day ends. A cooler easterly air flow will become established as the low pressure area gets closer to the region.

TODAY: Cloudy with numerous to widespread showers and a slight chance of a thunderstorm through midday, then tapering off west to east early afternoon with a mid to late afternoon clearing trend starting west and making it into the I-95 belt with increasing sun and still some passing areas of clouds as well. Highs 64-71 by midday, but slowly falling temperature from west to east during the afternoon hours. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with gusts 20-25 MPH, shifting to NW from west to east across the region.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 42-49. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 55-62. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 27-34 inland, 35-42 coast. Wind N under 10 MPH then calm.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 56-63. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Radiaton fog patches. Lows 33-40. Wind calm then SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clouds arrive south to north. Lows 45-52. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Clouds thicken. Chance of rain southern areas in the afternoon. Highs 55-62. Wind E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible especially coastal areas.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 13-17)

Leaning toward low pressure being close enough for breezy, cool conditions with a chance of rain October 13, then pulling away with fair, cool weather into the middle of next week and a slight moderating trend as high pressure builds in late week.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 18-22)

Overall zonal pattern but with a little more amplification possible, bringing a couple shower threats to the region. Timing of these is uncertain this far in advance. Temperatures variable – close to normal for the period.

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 7-11)

One more “feel of summer” day today with an increasing south to southwest wind ahead of an approaching cold front, which will deliver showers late tonight into Wednesday as we transition to a cooler air mass at midweek. Dry weather returns from west to east as the front moves offshore later Wednesday, though some areas south of Boston may not see clearing until after the sun goes down. Dry weather dominates Thursday through Saturday. This period of time starts breezy and cool with high pressure centered to the west, then goes tranquil but still cool Friday as the high builds overhead, then we see a temperature moderation Saturday as the high slides offshore and we get its return flow from the southwest.

TODAY: Fog and stratus areas limit sun in some areas early to mid morning, otherwise a sun/cloud mix with most sun late morning to mid afternoon and less sun from west to east later in the day. Highs 68-75 South Coast, 75-82 elsewhere. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts late in the day.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely overnight from west to east. Lows 60-67. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts at times.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with showers likely in the morning. Showers end midday from west to east with a clearing trend late-day from the west. Highs 62-69. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 42-49. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 55-62. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 35-42. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Radiaton fog patches. Patchy frost low elevations. Lows 33-40. Wind calm.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 66-73. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 12-16)

The big question to be answered is how does the weather turn out for the balance of the long weekend (October 12-13)? Guidance is inconsistent on how to handle low pressure down the coast to the south. Run-to-run and model-to-model inconsistency is at maximum rendering the guidance untrustworthy. Given the pattern overall and recent guidance biases, in general, my tendency is still to lean toward the drier scenario with the low staying to the south. There’s at least some chance that it drifts far enough north to spread more clouds into the region Sunday and a chance of some rainfall, especially in southern areas, later Sunday or Monday, but this seems at the moment to be the most extreme foul weather scenario potential, which isn’t the best news since we are in need of rain to slow down expanding dry conditions. Either scenario is followed by mainly dry and slightly cooler weather heading into the middle of next week.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 17-21)

Overall pattern still looks dry with zonal flow and a couple quick shower threats from passing fronts.Temperatures variable but close to or slightly above normal overall.