DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 22-26)

The remains of a mesoscale convective system (MCS) bring showers and a possible thunderstorm to our region this morning (the bigger storms have occurred in NY State, west of the WHW region). After the main area moves out, there’s only a slight chance an isolated shower or storm can fire up, but otherwise the trend is for dry weather, increased humidity, but clearing and heating up as we head through the afternoon. The rain-cooled air and residual cloud cover will modify temperature maxima from what they’d have been in full-sun conditions, but you’ll still feel it by later on today. Monday’s and Tuesday’s weather is full on summertime, but Monday’s weak wind field leaves the coast open to a decent sea breeze on Monday, preventing it from getting too hot there. Always important to watch for a collapse of the sea-breeze at the coast late-day and a quick temperature rise. It’s less likely that sea breeze will be a factor Tuesday – though a few localized ones can occur, and Cape Cod of course will be cooler than much of the remainder of the region, as is typical. A back-door cold front cools the entire region down Wednesday, but right now I think this takes place with dry weather. It is Thursday that the front hanging not far to our southwest and a disturbance in the region when we can see a few showers and thunderstorms develop.

TODAY: Mainly cloudy through mid morning including widespread showers and a possible thunderstorm. Partial sun with an additional isolated thunderstorm possible midday. Mostly sunny remainder of day. Highs 83-90 except 75-82 some coastal areas. Dew point rising through 60s. Wind variable, mainly S 5-15 MPH early then variable to N.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 86-93 inland, 78-85 coast. Dew point 65+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes developing.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Lows 67-74. Dew point 66+. Wind variable to SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 91-98 but considerably cooler South Coast, and possibly cooler eastern coastal areas. Dew point 65+. Wind W up to 10 MPH with an immediate coastal sea breeze potential.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Lows 70-77. Dew point 65+. Wind W up to 10 MPH shifting to N.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 78-85. Dew point 60+. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs 75-82, cooler coast. Dew point 60+. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 27 – JULY 1)

A frontal boundary nearby will gradually wash out while a few disturbances pass by at times in the final several days of June – bringing an occasional shower and thunderstorm threat, with a slow drying trend toward the start of July.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 2-6)

Overall trend is upper level west to northwest flow but surface high pressure mostly dominant. While there may be a brief shower or t-storm threat a time or two, this pattern is mainly dry and seasonably warm overall.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 21-25)

High pressure controls our weather today with lots of sun, a pleasant breeze at time (maybe a coastal sea breeze), low humidity, and seasonable warmth. You’ll start to notice some cloudiness appearing in the northwestern sky toward the end of the day. Remember the MCS (mesoscale convective system) that has been talked about here on the blog for days? That formed last night in the Upper Plains and began its trek eastward, which it does today moving through the Upper Great Lakes. It then takes a turn southeastward on the “ring of fire” eastern side of a high pressure ridge. This propels it, likely in a decaying but still somewhat potent state, into and across New England during the first 8 to 10 hours of Sunday. While this system looks like its greatest impact will be north and west of the WHW forecast area, a round (or two) of gusty showers and thunderstorms can occur in this area from around sunrise to late morning on Sunday. This type of a set-up, even with a weakening system, can produce areas of wind damage. Hail and frequent lightning can also occur with any remaining or re-developing stronger thunderstorm cells, so we’ll have to watch for that. Residual cloudiness in the wake of the system can limit the sun for a few extra hours, and rain-cooled air will also be present, and this will have an impact on Sunday’s high temperatures, which would have been hotter otherwise. My forecast will adjust for these limiting factors, and while by late-day it may feel hot and humid in much of the region, it will still be limited from its original potential. Monday and Tuesday we have a better upper level pattern set-up for significant heat, but a weak surface pressure gradient will allow for a pretty widespread coastal sea breeze to develop on Monday, keeping coastal communities from getting too hot, while it will be hottest inland. Tuesday, the sea breeze potential is weaker, so the region overall will see its hottest day of the stretch. A back-door cold front will put an end to the heat by Wednesday, accompanied by some clouds, but no more than an isolated shower or thunderstorm as it looks this far in advance.

TODAY: Sunshine dominates. Highs 80-87, 75-82 some coastal areas. Dew point sub-60. Wind W to N up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Clouds increase. Lows 61-68. Dew point approaches 60. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mainly cloudy through mid morning including scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, a few of which can be strong. Partly sunny late morning to mid afternoon with an isolated thunderstorm possible. Mostly sunny late-day. Highs 83-90 except 75-82 some coastal areas. Dew point 60+. Wind variable, mainly S 5-15 MPH early but can become strong and gusty near showers and thunderstorms, then variable to mainly N 5-15 MPH by late morning on, diminishing late in the day.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 86-93 inland, 78-85 coast. Dew point 60+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes developing.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Lows 65-72. Dew point 60+. Wind variable to SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 91-98 but considerably cooler South Coast, and possibly cooler eastern coastal areas. Dew point 65+. Wind W up to 10 MPH with an immediate coastal sea breeze potential.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Lows 70-77. Dew point 65+. Wind W up to 10 MPH shifting to N.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm, favoring inland locations. Highs 78-85. Dew point 60+. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 26-30)

June 26-27 features a broad scale but weak maritime air flow with varying amounts of clouds, a few chance for showers and thunderstorms, and mild temperatures with moderate humidity. Warmer weather in the June 28-30 period with an isolated shower or thunderstorm possible but mainly dry weather. More details to come…

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 1-5)

Overall trend is upper level west to northwest flow but surface high pressure mostly dominant. While there may be a brief shower or t-storm threat a time or two, this pattern is mainly dry and seasonably warm overall.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 20-24)

The final hours of spring today will feature a dew point crash with incoming dry air, but this will be accompanied by quite a bit of wind on the back side of a pretty potent low pressure area moving from northern New England into southeastern Canada. Some cloudiness will be moving across our sky to start the day, but lower atmospheric drying will lead to more sun with just a few passing fair weather clouds as the day goes on. It’ll be a relatively warm day, but less hot than yesterday and even feeling a bit cool out of the sun due to the gusty breeze. That breeze will ease tonight as low pressure pulls away. We welcome summer with the occurrence of the solstice tonight, 10:41 p.m. EDT. Look for a clear evening then some varying amounts of high and middle clouds to arrive from the northwest overnight due to upstream convective activity in the Great Lakes – typical for this time of year in the pattern that evolves heading into the weekend. This may limit the sun at times Saturday, especially in the morning, but overall it’s a nice day with dry weather, warm air, less wind, and fairly low humidity. Another complex of thunderstorms, this one more potent, will be developing this evening in the Upper Plains into the Upper Midwest (something mentioned several times this week). This system will move across the Upper Great Lakes Saturday then bear right on the atmospheric highway (aka jet stream), moving across New England in the overnight and morning hours of Sunday. It’s uncertain how much of the actual thunderstorm activity will survive the trip, and while northern New England certainly stands the best chance of seeing some of that, here in our region we can see a passing shower or storm at some point between the pre-dawn and mid morning hours of Sunday – something to monitor and fine tune, eventually “now-cast”. The remainder of Sunday, behind that system, will feature a sun/cloud mix, a bit more humidity, and warm air, but I think the chance of any additional shower or thunderstorm will be extremely low – enough so that I don’t even mention it in my detailed forecast below. The upper level pattern features a ridge building into our region early next week – a heat signature. However, a weak pressure gradient leaves the coast vulnerable to sea breezes, especially Monday (less so Tuesday) so the higher heat may not occur in every location in our region.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix, trending sunnier. Highs 78-85. Dew point falls below 60. Wind W 10-20 MPH, gusts 30 MPH or greater until late in the afternoon.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 57-64. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy morning. Mostly sunny afternoon. Highs 78-85. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clouds arrive. A shower or thunderstorm possible overnight, mainly north and west of Boston. Lows 60-67. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts overnight.

SUNDAY: Lots of clouds through mid morning with a shower or thunderstorm possible, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 80-87. Dew point rises above 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 86-93, but can be cooler along the coastline. Dew point 60+. Wind SW to variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes possible.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Lows 65-72. Dew point 60+. Wind variable to SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 90-97 but considerably cooler South Coast, and possibly cooler eastern coastal areas. Dew point 60+. Wind SW to variable up to 10 MPH with a coastal sea breeze potential.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 25-29)

Trend for Canadian high pressure to move more influence with less heat, coolest coastal areas, and mostly fair weather during this period. Best chance to see a shower or thunderstorm around June 26 and/or June 27.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 30 – JULY 4)

Upper level west to northwest flow. This can bring a couple disturbances and shower / t-storm chances to the region, but the overall pattern is dry and seasonably warm.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 19-23)

A few forecast tweaks in this update to an otherwise similar outlook to yesterday’s. We start the day under a blanket of stratus clouds for much of the region which will hold back the temperature rise and take a degree or two off the potential high temps for the day, but we’re still in for a fairly hot and humid day, the first real widespread one for the region this late spring. After that cloud layer thins and dissipates, we’ll have a fair amount of sun, but some high cloud areas from upstream thunderstorms can move in later. For the WHW, the timing of an approaching cold front is late to optimize the opportunity for widespread big thunderstorms. The atmosphere will be quite unstable and a fairly healthy low for this time of year will be passing to our north, but timing / frontal position dictates that the most likely area for a solid or broken line of storms to form will be over NY State moving into VT and western MA / CT late-day / early evening. A few advanced isolated to scattered storms can occur ahead of this, but coverage would be less, into western portions of the WHW region (around the CT River Valley). I suspect whatever is left of the line will make its way in broken and weakening fashion across the rest of the region during the mid to late evening hours. A few of the storms can last longer (stronger cells that find a way to survive – outflow boundary regeneration, interaction with other boundaries, etc – which are things we can only now-cast by watching radar). Once the cold front moves through the region a couple hours either side of midnight west to east, the storm threat will come to an end, and a drier air mass will arrive. A tweak to this forecast update regarding Friday is to remove the shower and thunderstorm chance – the reason being the most unstable area in response to the disturbance passing by will be well to the west and southwest and I don’t expect more than fair weather clouds, a gusty breezy, drier air, but still warm temps. We welcome summer official with the occurrence of the solstice at 10:41p.m. on Friday. Looking into the weekend, you’ve heard talk of a complex of thunderstorms forming Friday night in the upper Plains / Midwest. I still think this will be the case. But first, we may see some debris cloudiness in the area from a small complex ahead of that one passing through our sky early Saturday, a day that otherwise looks dry and pleasantly warm. It’s that night that clouds arrive from the larger complex of storms as it exits the Great Lakes and moves through Upstate NY, adjacent southern Canada and into northwestern New England. In decaying state, it can send some showers and thunderstorms with gusty winds through our region sometime in the 3:00 a.m. to 9:00 a.m. time window of Sunday – timing and details to be tweaked further on this. The remainder of Sunday would be similar to Friday – breezy, dry, and warm. Looking ahead to Monday, it heats up again with a 90+ high temp potential. However a weak pressure gradient leaves the coast vulnerable to sea breezes, so it may be a “not-so-fast” kind of deal on the heat for the coast. Will watch that as it’s still several days away.

TODAY: Clouds give way to sun through mid morning. Sun dominant late morning to mid afternoon. Cloud/sun mix later on. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible southwestern NH, central MA, and adjacent CT late afternoon / early evening. Highs 80-87 South Coast, 88-95 elsewhere. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms west to east this evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+ evening, falling to 50s overnight. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to NW from west to east.

FRIDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 78-85. Dew point falls below 60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 57-64,. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy morning. Mostly sunny afternoon. Highs 78-85. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clouds arrive. A shower or thunderstorm possible overnight, mainly north and west of Boston. Lows 60-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Lots of clouds early with a shower or thunderstorm possible Boston area southward, then mostly sunny. Highs 80-87. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 62-69. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 86-93, but can be cooler along the coastline. Wind SW to variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes possible.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 24-28)

Brief heat spike expected June 24 but again watch for a cooler coast. Back-door front should cool the region down, maybe with a passing shower or thunderstorm briefly otherwise mostly fair weather middle of next week. Isolated showers / storms as warmer air tries to return later next week.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 29 – JULY 3)

General west northwest flow pattern with a a couple disturbances to pass by. These can bring a few showers and thunderstorms, but most of the time looks rain-free with variable temperatures averaging near to above normal.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 18-22)

A warm front moves through this morning with some showers around, and our humidity begins a spike which lasts through Thursday, along with the addition of some heat. Behind today’s early showers may come a stray sprinkle, though a disturbance passing by may kick off a heavier shower or thunderstorm near and south of I-90 tonight. The next round of storms is due later Thursday with the approach of a cold front. Timing still looks late enough that we make it through the majority of (if not all of) the daylight in the WHW area without much activity, though northern and western areas could see the first storms pop up before we get to evening – something to watch. I think the main batch of storms ahead of the front will max out to our west and arrive / cross the region while weakening in the evening and nighttime hours, exiting overnight with the passage of the cold front. This leads to a less hot / still warm, and less humid day on Friday, with only a slight chance of a pop up / passing shower or thunderstorm as an upper disturbance swings through the region. High pressure brings fair, seasonably warm, and dry weather Saturday. I’ll be watching upstream for the development of a complex of thunderstorms (Upper Plains to Upper Midwest Friday night, moving across the Great Lakes during the day Saturday). This system, probably in a decaying state, would dive east southeastward across New England in the early hours of Sunday – after midnight to shortly after sunrise. While the bigger impact of rain and wind would likely take place north and west of our region, a gusty shower or thunderstorm may visit some areas to start the day out on Sunday, but the remainder of the day, assuming my timing is correct, would be quite nice. We welcome summer official with the occurrence of the solstice at 10:41p.m. on Friday June 20…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers and a slight chance of thunder this morning. Patchy fog until mid morning. A spot sprinkle or light shower this afternoon. Highs 76-83. Dew point 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. A shower or thunderstorm possible near and south of I-90. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind S to SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms, favoring late-day or evening and favoring areas west and north of Boston . Highs 78-85 South Coast, 85-92 elsewhere. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms favoring eastern areas early. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, variable near storms, shifting to NW overnight.

FRIDAY: Sun/cloud mix. A passing shower or thunderstorm possible. Highs 78-85. Dew point falls below 60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 57-64,. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clouds arrive. A shower or thunderstorm possible overnight, mainly north and west of Boston. Lows 60-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Lots of clouds early with a shower or thunderstorm possible Boston area southward, then mostly sunny. Highs 80-87. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 23-27)

A couple / few days of hotter weather are probable early to mid next week, but we also have to watch a frontal boundary to our north that with adequate push could make some areas, especially northern areas and eastern coastal areas, significantly cooler. Can’t rule out a few showers and thunderstorms in a hot air mass and near any frontal boundary.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 28 – JULY 2)

General west northwest flow pattern with a a couple disturbances to pass by. These can bring a few showers and thunderstorms, but most of the time looks rain-free with variable temperatures averaging near to above normal.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 17-21)

A warm front approaches today and passes through tonight. Limited light rain can occur but no widespread or lasting wet weather. The front will bring a wind shift from east and southeast to south and southwest, and a spike in humidity. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible in the warm sector Wednesday. A more focused shower and thunderstorm chance sometime Thursday triggered by an approaching cold front is depending on the front’s timing – still leaning toward later over earlier. That will also be the “hottest” day of this week. A dry, seasonably warm air mass arrives behind the front late week, though Friday can still carry a shower and thunderstorm chance as an upper disturbance passes by. We welcome summer official with the occurrence of the solstice at 10:41p.m. on Friday June 20…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Short periods of light rain possible. Highs 65-72. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Fog patches. A shower possible. Lows 60-67. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible. Highs 76-83. Dew point 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms, favoring late-day or evening. Highs 78-85 South Coast, 85-92 elsewhere. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms favoring eastern areas early. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, variable near storms, shifting to NW overnight.

FRIDAY: Sun/cloud mix. A passing shower or thunderstorm possible. Highs 78-85. Dew point falls below 60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 57-64,. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 22-26)

A passing shower possible on June 22 with a disturbance – timing uncertain. Another 1 or 2 such events may occur before the end of the period, but most times rain-free. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 27 – JULY 1)

General west northwest flow pattern with a a couple disturbances to pass by. These can bring a few showers and thunderstorms, but most of the time looks rain-free with variable temperatures averaging near to above normal.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 16-20)

A maritime air mass that took up residence here over the weekend hangs around early this week as well, keeping it on the cool side. A deck of status clouds and some fog blanket much of eastern MA and the NH Seacoast to start today, but fog will thin and dissipate and clouds will break with time. Tuesday will see more cloudiness return as a warm front approaches from the southwest. The approach of this front can also trigger patchy light rainfall at any time during the day and into the nighttime hours as well. Wednesday, we’ll be behind the front, in the warm sector, with a humid southerly air flow bringing lots of clouds and the chance of passing showers and possibly a thunderstorm, though most of the day in any location will be rain-free. Thursday, a wind shift to southwest allows a shot of heat into the region – modified of course along the South Coast by flow off the ocean. We’ll have to watch for some stronger thunderstorm activity with a cold front approaching from the west – timining / coverage / intensity TBD and largely dependent on the front’s timing. Right now, my leaning is late timing, which would mean the better chance for heavier storms would be the western reaches of the WHW forecast area, and a weaker version of activity into the remainder of the region in the evening or nightime, but a few days remain to fine-tune this. Behind the cold front on Friday comes drier and slightly cooler air, but an upper disturbance can still trigger a passing shower or thunderstorm that day. We welcome summer official with the occurrence of the solstice at 10:41p.m. on Friday June 20…

TODAY: Low clouds and fog southeastern NH / eastern MA thinning and breaking, otherwise a sun/cloud mix. Highs 65-72, coolest coast. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 55-62. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Short periods of light rain possible. Highs 65-72. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Fog patches. A shower possible. Lows 60-67. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible. Highs 76-83. Dew point 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms, favoring late-day or evening. Highs 78-85 South Coast, 85-92 elsewhere. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, variable near storms, shifting to NW overnight.

FRIDAY: Sun/cloud mix. A passing shower or thunderstorm possible. Highs 78-85. Dew point falls below 60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 21-25)

Early days of summer / summertime pattern. A front may bring a shower or thunderstorm later June 22 or June 23, again late in the period. Otherwise a generally dry and warm pattern in store.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 26-30)

General west northwest flow pattern with a a couple disturbances to pass by. These can bring a few showers and thunderstorms, but most of the time looks rain-free with variable temperatures averaging near to above normal.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 15-19)

Happy Father’s Day to the dads reading! Another quick update as this recovery is like taking the Cog Railway up Mount Washington, but leaving the actual train behind… 😉 No big changes again. High pressure to northeast, gradually slips southward the next few days. Our air flow goes from easterly to southerly between now and midweek. Meanwhile, a little jet stream energy tries to move in at times. This, combined with increased low level moisture, will eventually lead to the return of shower chances in our forecast Tuesday and Wednesday. Thursday, we get a brief shot of heat and humidity along with a chance of thunderstorms as a cold front will be approaching from the west at that time. And rewinding a bit, when I say “heat”, I don’t mean Bermuda High super heat blast etc. – like the hype you may have already seen on social media (“death ridge”, etc.) .. Ignore all that. Yup there’s some hot weather coming for parts of the East this coming week – it’s called a pattern change. For us, it means a brief shot of above normal temperatures as we’re in an overall west northwest jet flow and close to boundaries of cooler air.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 65-72, coolest coastal areas. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 53-60. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Highs 65-72. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a shower, mainly west of I-95 later-day. Highs 71-78. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Fog patches. A shower possible. Lows 60-67. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible. Highs 76-83. Dew point 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms, favoring late-day or evening. Highs 78-85 South Coast, 85-92 elsewhere. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 20-24)

The summer solstice occurs at 10:54 p.m. on June 20. That day will feature less humidity but a shower or thunderstorm chance as a secondary trough sweeps through the region – most of the day being rain-free however. June 21-22 weekend looks mostly dry and seasonably warm but cannot rule out a shower or thunderstorm for some areas on June 22 with a trough nearby. Another disturbance can bring a shower or storm threat June 23 and/or 24.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 25-29)

General west northwest flow pattern with a a couple disturbances to pass by. These can bring a few showers and thunderstorms, but most of the time looks rain-free and fairly seasonable, with some normal temperature variability.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 14-18)

Very short update as I am treating illness with meds and resting a lot. Nothing really changed in the outlook anyway. Low pressure passing to south today – wettest this morning, may linger longer South Coast into afternoon. High pressure noses in barely from the northeast later today into Sunday, may result in some partial clearing, but overall a cloud-dominant, cool weekend, but dry after the damp start. A turn to a more southerly air flow the first half of next week means a slow warm-up with increased humidity. I’ll detail this more on tomorrow’s post.

TODAY: Cloudy start with rain ending northwest to southeast in the morning. Lots of clouds / breaks of sun afternoon with some lingering showers possible South Coast. Highs 64-71, coolest coast. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 53-60. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 65-72, coolest coastal areas. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 53-60. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Highs 65-72. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 71-78. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Fog patches. Lows 60-67. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 76-83. Dew point 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 19-23)

Juneteenth holiday on June 19 features high humidity in a southwesterly flow and a chance of late-day or evening showers/thunderstorms with the approach of a cold front. Secondary disturbance may trigger a shower or storm June 20 but overall looks drier with a northwesterly air flow. We welcome summer with the occurrence of the solistice at 10:54 p.m. that night. High pressure brings fair and seasonably warm weather June 21. Northwest flow disturbance can bring a passing shower or thunderstorm a time or two June 22-23 but overall, rain-free and seasonably warm weather.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 24-28)

General west northwest flow pattern with a a couple disturbances to pass by. These can bring a few showers and thunderstorms, but most of the time looks rain-free and fairly seasonable, with some normal temperature variability.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 13-17)

Here’s your better late than never update from WHW on this Friday the 13th! Well, we’re about to have a little weather good luck, and something I was anticipating. And that is, having most of our weekend spared of wet weather. Before I get to that, today will be a day governed by high pressure but also by a lot of cloud cover and occasional sun as mid level moisture streams along on a west northwest flow aloft. High pressure will situate itself in southeastern Canada and hold into and through the weekend. It gives just enough ground so that low pressure passing to our south off the Mid Atlantic Coast will produce some wet weather in our region during the first approximately 12 hours of Saturday. Don’t take that too literally though. Start time, end time, length of rainfall – all TBD by location. General idea is a broken band of mid level convective showers will be initiated around or shortly after midnight oriented west-to-east somewhere in the vicinity of I-90, maybe a bit south or a bit north. This slides eastward and blossoms into a more general rain area over the region that will already be in the process of ending from northwest to southeast a couple hours after sunrise, so that by midday it’s a done deal pretty much everywhere, other than potentially lingering right on the South Coast a little longer into afternoon before departing. After this the high pressure area to our northeast is going to be strong enough to give us rain-free weather for the remainder of the weekend, with limited sunshine possible as we move through Saturday afternoon and some partial sun as well on Sunday. Previously, I had a shower / drizzle threat in Sunday’s forecast which I feel safe removing. The trade off to this is having cooler than average temperatures since our dry air is coming from high pressure where it is with an air flow off the Atlantic. Monday, that high will slip southward and our air flow will begin a shift to more southerly. You won’t notice it much at first, but a subtle warm-up will begin, although still with a lot of cloud cover in the sky. I do think we do escape any threat of rain on Monday too. Tuesday’s weather does look a little more unsettled as a more established southerly flow is present and a warm front moves into the region, presenting the chance of showers and thunderstorms – details TBD as we get closer to that.

TODAY: Cloud / sun mix with emphasis on the clouds. Some high altitude smoke above that. Highs 73-80, coolest coast. Wind N under 10 MPH with developing coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Becoming cloudy. Showers develop late evening / overnight then steadier rain toward dawn. Lows 53-60. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy start with rain ending northwest to southeast in the morning. Lots of clouds / breaks of sun afternoon with some lingering showers possible South Coast. Highs 64-71, coolest coast. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 53-60. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers possible. Highs 65-72, coolest coastal areas. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 53-60. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 62-69. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 67-74. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 18-22)

This 5 day period features the final days of spring and first days of summer, as the solstice occurs at 10:54 p.m. on June 20! What will the weather do for the change of seasons? Well, I think it will act fairly appropriately. A warmer, more humid southwesterly air flow with a few shower and thunderstorm chances will be with us for midweek (June 18-19). Right now I think a frontal boundary can bring a heavier batch of showers and storms through at some point June 20, followed by a warm and mainly dry June 21-22 weekend.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 23-27)

Overall pattern features west northwest flow here and a series of fronts / disturbances, which can bring a few showers and thunderstorms. Most of the time though – rain-free. Temperatures near to slightly above normal.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 12-16)

A summertime feel today with a warm, dry westerly wind blowing ahead of a cold front moving our way from the north, but it stays dry today – just a few clouds, and more hazy smoke above us from the Canadian wildfires. The front drops through tonight, and one tweak to the forecast I am making is the low chance of a shower or two bring triggered near the South Coast as it moves through that area. Friday, it heads south and we’ll enjoy another day of fair weather, some mid and high level clouds streaming in above us, a little reduction in the wildfire smoke aloft, and slightly cooler than today, but still pleasantly mild. Our weekend looks considerably cooler with a broad onshore flow between low pressure stretched out to our south and high pressure in southeastern Canada. The latter will be strong enough to limit how much rain falls, sending drier air intrusions in. Our greatest shot at more widespread rainfall appears to take place in the early hours of Saturday to a few hours after sunrise, with just spotty sprinkles and drizzle otherwise through Sunday. Enough dry air can get into our region for partial sun at times both Saturday afternoon and for a portion of Sunday. Monday’s weather currently looks similar with not much change to the overall set up of broad scale easterly flow at the surface, westerly flow aloft, high pressure to the north, and low pressure to the south, but not too close. This is kind of a “mostly cloudy” but not much else kind of look at this point, with continued below normal temperatures.

TODAY: Smoke-filtered sun along with a few passing fair weather clouds. Highs 78-85. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Brief showers possible near the South Coast. Lows 56-63. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: A sun / cloud mix. Less high altitude smoke. Highs 73-80, coolest at the coast. Wind N under 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes developing.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Showers arriving overnight. Lows 56-63. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers, favoring morning-midday. Some clearing possible later. Highs 64-71, coolest coastal areas. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Isolated showers / drizzle possible. Lows 53-60. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers possible. Highs 65-72, coolest coastal areas. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 53-60. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 62-69. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 17-21)

Large scale pattern dominated by the evolution of a modest middle US ridge of high pressure in a west northwest more progressive air flow over our region. A couple of disturbances can bring some unsettled weather in this pattern – currently favoring June 17 and 19, but with low confidence on timing and no details possible. Temperatures trend warmer overall. Summer solstice: 10:54 p.m. June 20.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 22-26)

Indications continue for the general large scale pattern featuring a middle US high pressure ridge and more of a west northwesterly air flow in our region with a weak trough being the main feature. This allows a couple disturbances / fronts with shower / thunderstorm threats. In this pattern temperatures are generally variable but average somewhat close to normal overall.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 11-15)

We have now reached mid June – still spring, technically, but as we move through these days more and more people start summertime activities, and this time of year often carries weather risk because we’re still technically in springtime, our most volatile season. And if you’ve had a pattern that has featured volatility / unsettled weather more than what we may typically see, well there you go. Is it any surprise we’re on the fence regarding this weekend’s weather? I will say though, I still have some optimistic thoughts about it. But before we get there, we have some other weather to talk about. Today and Thursday will feature a warmer, drier westerly air flow, with fair weather. The big issue is that this comes along with a substantial batch of high altitude wildfire smoke from Canada which will filter the sun considerably, especially Thursday. A building of high pressure to our west will tilt our air flow a bit more to the northwest on Friday, and while we’ll have some cloud patches and a little reduction in the smoke plume, it will be a mainly dry day (had showers in the forecast before, but feel they will hold off / not materialize). It will also be a little less warm on Friday. The weekend…. I’ve had some optimism in my outlook – a feeling that high pressure in eastern Canada would be a little more dominant than shown by guidance, and while the weather would be “unsettled”, we’d also have a share of nicer weather mixed in there. Today’s leaning is similar – and this finds me going for wettest weather chances favoring the early hours of Saturday, and another opportunity for some shower activity for a portion of the daytime Sunday, but with limited coverage. The pattern features high pressure to the north and a frontal boundary to the south, a focus for some moisture as disturbances move along it, but limited due to stronger high pressure to the north. There will be a lot of fine-tuning ahead for this weekend forecast.

TODAY: Smoke-filtered sun. Highs 78-85. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: High altitude smoke. Lows 56-63. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Smoke-filtered sun. Highs 78-85. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 56-63. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: A sun / cloud mix. Some high altitude smoke. Highs 73-80. Wind W to NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers overnight. Lows 56-63. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers, favoring morning-midday. Some clearing possible later. Highs 64-71, coolest coastal areas. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers possible. Highs 65-72, coolest coastal areas. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 16-20)

Large scale pattern dominated by the evolution of a modest middle US ridge of high pressure in a west northwest more progressive air flow over our region. A couple of disturbances can bring some unsettled weather in this pattern – currently favoring June 17 and 19, but with low confidence on timing and no details possible. Temperatures near to slightly below normal. Summer solstice: 10:54 p.m. June 20.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 21-25)

Indications for the general large scale pattern point to a middle US high pressure ridge and more of a west northwesterly air flow in our region with a weak trough being the main feature. This allows a couple disturbances / fronts with shower / thunderstorm threats. Variable temperatures – not far from normal.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 10-14)

An unsettled weather day today as a trough moves through. Low pressure passing by to the north will drag a warm front through, followed by a cold front. This will result in episodes of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms. A warmer, drier westerly air flow replaces this at midweek for Wednesday and Thursday. However, the sun that shines on these days will not be bright as it will be filtered by significant Canadian wildfire smoke. The next disturbance will send some clouds and maybe a passing shower into the region Friday and it will be a bit less warm. The weekend may start unsettled as another area of moisture passes through the region in a west northwest flow aloft on Saturday. Surface wind may become broad scale onshore making it a much cooler start to the weekend, depending on the orientation of the features by that time…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Highs 68-75. Wind E up to 10 MPH shifting to S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Foggy areas early. Mainly cloudy evening with showers and thunderstorms fading as they move eastward. Clearing overnight. Lows 55-62. Wind variable under 10 MPH, then W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Smoke-filtered sun. Highs 78-85. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: High altitude smoke. Lows 56-63. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Smoke-filtered sun. Highs 78-85. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 56-63. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: A sun / cloud mix with a chance of a passing shower or thunderstorm. Highs 73-80. Wind W to NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers overnight. Lows 56-63. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers, favoring morning-midday. Some clearing possible later. Highs 64-71. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 15-19)

Still leaning toward mid period as the most likely time for the next bout of unsettled / wet weather. No significant heat in sight.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 20-24)

Indications for the general large scale pattern point to a middle US high pressure ridge and more of a west northwesterly air flow in our region with a weak trough being the main feature. This allows a couple disturbances / fronts with shower / thunderstorm threats. Variable temperatures – not far from normal overall. Summer Solstice: 10:54 p.m. June 20.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 9-13)

Today’s weather will feature abundant cloud cover between a front that sits to our south and high pressure over Atlantic Canada. The result is a broad but weak onshore (easterly) air flow. This will keep temperatures on the cooler side of normal with highs in the 60s and while dew point temps are sub-60, it feels slightly humid as the dp & temperature will not be that far apart. We will see some spotty light showers from mid level clouds as a weak trough moves eastward through the region in a westerly flow aloft, but this will also be battling a bit of dry air trying to move down from that Atlantic Canada, which can thin / break the clouds for a little sun at times. Clouds thicken tonight as the front to the south advances northward as a warm front, and a couple areas of light rainfall may be generated by this process. Tuesday we find ourselves in the warm sector after that front goes by and prior to the arrival of a cold front from the west. An increase in low level moisture in this air mass and a disturbance moving in aloft will trigger showers and possible thunderstorms, a few which can contain downpours, but it will not rain for the entirety of the day – probably under 50% of the time in any given location. As surface low pressure passes to our north, the cold front will move through Tuesday night, putting an end to the shower and thunderstorm threat. If you’ve been following the blog, you’ve seen me mention the “warmer behind the cold front” synoptic set-up for midweek, and that’s exactly what we’ll have. While we have what is technically by definition a continental polar air mass, originating in Canada, arriving behind that cold front, it will be modified by passing over warmed land and also get a further boost from the down slope effect off the hills and mountains to our west. This results in fair, warm weather but lower dew points Wednesday and Thursday. On Friday, a front will move through the region from the north and I remain of the meteorological opinion that this process will be quicker and stronger than some guidance indications. This front will bring the threat of some passing showers and possibly a thunderstorm to end the work week, but the coverage / intensity will depend on the timing.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy – maybe thinning for a bit of sun at times, but also a stray shower or two possible. Highs 63-70, coolest coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouds thicken. Showers arrive overnight. Lows 55-62. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Highs 68-75. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening. Clearing overnight. Patchy fog early. Lows 55-62. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun / cloud mix. Highs 78-85. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 56-63. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 78-85. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 56-63. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers, possibly a thunderstorm. Highs 73-80. Wind W 10-20 MPH, gusty, shifting to N.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 14-18)

Current call on June 14-15 weekend: High pressure pressure far enough south from eastern Canada to keep our region rain-free but cooler, though there may be some variable amounts of cloud cover due to high and mid level moisture streaming along west to east just to our south. Watching for the arrival and passage of a trough and low pressure at some point the first half of next week – leaning toward June 17 for the most likely wet day.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 19-23)

Indications for the general large scale pattern point to a middle US high pressure ridge and more of a west northwesterly air flow in our region with a weak trough being the main feature. This allows a couple disturbances / fronts with shower / thunderstorm threats to pass by – timing uncertain. Variable temperatures but averaging fairly close to normal for the period. Summer Solstice: 10:54 p.m. June 20.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 8-12)

Today we’ll have a better day than yesterday was. Some early morning fog sits in lower elevations and will burn off. The sun will be filtered to dimmed by a mixture of high level clouds and high altitude wildfire smoke – the former coming from the southwest and the latter coming from Canada. At least we can have a day without a rain threat, even if it’s not bright sunshine. A warm front will begin its approach tonight and Monday, increasing our cloud cover at times, but this will be met with drier air being sent out way from a ridge of high pressure in Atlantic Canada. The dry air will do a pretty good job for a while, often thinning and breaking the cloud advance while limiting any rainfall to just patchy and very light, favoring southern areas. Finally, Monday night the clouds will thicken as the warm front receives a reinforcing push northeastward. Its parenting low pressure area will track north of us Tuesday, dragging a cold front toward the region, which then passes through at night. This late Monday night to late Tuesday evening time period is when we see our best opportunity for showers – perhaps a few thunderstorms at some point during the day on Tuesday while we’re in a warm and humid air mass. At midweek, a drier westerly air flow takes over, and as I mentioned yesterday, we warm up behind the cold front due to the action of warmer land to our west and some down sloping of air off hills and mountains to our west warming up the air mass. Look for fair weather to be dominant with high pressure to our south and low pressure in Canada to our north during this midweek time frame, but we will have to watch a frontal boundary to the north by later Thursday in case it moves a little more quickly than currently indicated by guidance…

TODAY: Early to mid morning valley fog patches and some stratus cloud patches drifting across Cape Cod. Otherwise, filtered to dimmed sunshine with high clouds and wildfire smoke aloft, then some increase in clouds later in the day. Highs 70-77, coolest coast. Wind N up to 10 MPH followed by coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Considerably cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Abundant clouds but partial sun. A couple brief periods of very light rain possible mainly south of I-90. Highs 68-75, coolest coast. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clouds thicken. Showers arrive overnight. Lows 55-62. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Highs 68-75. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening. Clearing overnight. Patchy fog. Lows 55-62. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun / cloud mix. Highs 78-85. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 56-63. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 78-85. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 13-17)

I have a more optimistic outlook currently than many medium range models have. High pressure may be stronger than modeled, keeping the next round of unsettled weather south of our area and keeping our region, after a brief shower threat with a passing front June 13, generally dry heading into and through next weekend, with another trough and low pressure bringing unsettled weather back at the very end of the period. Not super-high confidence on this just yet. This pattern would prevent significant heat and the coast would often be coolest during the daytimes.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 18-22)

The period may start unsettled and end with a front bringing a shower and thunderstorm threat, with fair and seasonably warm weather in between. Summer Solstice: 10:54 p.m. June 20.