INTRODUCTION

Heading through this autumn, we’ve heard the usual scramble of noise is ongoing from social media pages – nothing unexpected, and this is not my space set aside to editorialize about all of that. This is to talk about my thoughts on the upcoming winter after carefully considering all of the factors that go into influencing and shaping the large scale weather pattern over a period of nearly 4 months. No easy task, but a fun undertaking nonetheless. You’ve heard the early hype about Sudden Stratospheric Warming and Polar Vortex disruption, a big start to winter, etc., etc. – but it’s time to set that aside and start from the beginning, and progress through each potential driver, then put it all together in a science-driven “best-guess”.

OVERVIEW

Last year heading into winter we were sitting at ENSO-neutral heading for a weak La Nina. This year, it’s opposite. Of late, ENSO has been right on the border of weak La Nina and neutral. I mentioned last year about a string of winter where MJO did not play favorites for snow-lovers, and we waited to see if it would become more favorable for events that would make the chionophiles happy – but it didn’t really rise to the occasion. So once again we wait to see if it finally decides to be more giving this upcoming winter. That said, as you know, there are many more factors that can and do influence the large scale patterns that ultimately determine the character of the winter season. If you have forgotten what ENSO / La Nina / MJO mean, don’t worry. I’ll be making all of that clear along with all of the other indices to be talked about. There are two other factors this year that are somewhat similar to last year heading toward winter. Those are the lingering impact from the Hunga Tonga volcano with still quite an elevated water vapor level in the stratosphere, as well as the region having been at least borderline in drought for a good portion of the summer and part of autumn. One general weather rule of thumb, as I mentioned in last year’s outlook when talking about this, is a wet autumn often leads to at least a somewhat wet (potentially snowy) winter. But again, as of now we are still not seeing that wet an autumn pattern with most of the region having precipitation totals that fall shy of the long term average. So there you go. Let’s move on and systematically break down all the contributing factors to the pattern that will be winter 2025-2026, and then put it all back together into an outlook for the season!

MAJOR INDICES / IMPACTS

Hunga Tonga Volcanic Eruption, January 2022 (HTE): We continue to observe and learn about the impact from the tremendous influx of moisture into our stratosphere, and the idea remains that climate influence from this event will be around for at least a few to several more years, with results becoming more clear with time. So for this winter, it remains as a wild card player that cannot just be “under rug swept”, to borrow an Alanis Morissette album title from 2002.

El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO): This index is pretty straightforward this time. While sitting on the neutral / weak La Nina border of late, a movement back into weak La Nina is nearly certain as we finish November and move into December. As we progress through the winter, the expectations are to come back to the neutral phase where it will remain for the finish of the season. I’m currently expecting about 1/2 the winter in weak La Nina and the other half neutral. History shows some of our snowier winters have occurred in weak La Nina and neutral conditions. However, as I’ve said many times, one index does not determine the conditions on its own.

Arctic Oscillation (AO): This is the index that indicates the strength and behavior of the Polar Vortex (PV). To review quickly, a positive AO indicates a strong PV, fairly tight to the polar regions with limited southern movement and tends to promote seasonable to mild air at mid latitudes with fewer sharp changes, while a negative phase indicates an interrupted or unstable PV with lobes of it gaining the ability to drop to much lower latitudes. These bring your colder outbreaks of air to mid latitudes, the duration and location determined by the behavior of the PV lobe of cause. Going into this winter, we’re already experiencing a well-forecast disruption of the PV. It currently remains to be seen precisely the magnitude and duration of the interruption, which results in a negative AO. The strongest indications are that it will have staying power at least through the first half of December, and possibly through much of the month. This increases the opportunity for colder bouts of air to visit North America, including our region. But the details – timing, number of cold shots, duration of cold shots, all remains to be seen. The next index talked about below does have an influence on this. Look ahead to read about that and what it might mean for the AO beyond December.

Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), the direction of stratospheric winds above the tropical latitudes: This index is expected to be in its negative phase, otherwise known as an easterly QBO, for the duration of this winter. A QBO in this phase increases the chances that the PV can be disrupted and the AO can go negative. While I’m pretty certain, as noted above, this is how winter starts, based on the forecast QBO remaining easterly, this leaves the door open for additional negative AO episodes going through winter, which would favor the tendency for colder over warmer.

North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO): In its positive phase, this index describes general low pressure north and high pressure south in the North Atlantic Ocean, and the pattern in this phase also is a fairly progressive jet stream pattern, often blowing across Canada and/or the northern US and into North Atlantic without being hindered along their path. In its negative phase, high pressure is more dominant in the north, with low pressure to the south. This describes a blocking pattern, which with high pressure sitting over the North Atlantic, Greenland, or Atlantic Canada, forces the jet stream to the south. This tends to be associated with colder and/or stormier weather in the US Northeast. However, this can be a dry pattern if the blocking is too strong or oriented in such a way that the high pressure area is too far west. Predicting this index becomes highly uncertain beyond a couple weeks. Last winter there was no strong indication one way or another for this index heading into winter. This year, this index spent most of the autumn in negative territory, but recently trended neutral to slightly positive as we lost a Greenland blocking pattern. As we enter the first part of meteorological winter, the outlooks are for this index wavering around neutral – slightly positive to slightly negative. This isn’t unusual for the type of pattern transition ongoing now. There is not really way to forecast this index beyond a couple weeks with any real skill. What I can say is that in a winter where there is the opportunity for episodes of -AO, there can be more opportunities for -NAO episodes that bring your higher chance of cold and sometimes stormy weather. This is something we’ll have to monitor as time goes along.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO): a water temperature pattern in the mid latitude Pacific Ocean, north of 20 degrees N latitude. Just like last year, the PDO remains strongly negative. The primary result of a strongly negative phase of this index is coldest weather (relative to normal) often occurs from the Pacific Northwest to the Upper Midwest, and warmest (relative to normal) occurs in the South Central US, Southeast, and at times the Mid Atlantic. The negative PDO often promotes more low pressure trough occurrences in the West, with downstream ridging and corresponding milder weather to the east – with focus often Deep South to Southeast / Mid Atlantic – depending on the status of other indices of course. With La Nina present at least for the early part of winter, this is something we may see occur as would be expected. A shift to a neutral ENSO may dampen this effect somewhat.

Pacific-North American Index (PNA), which describes the upper air pattern from the North Pacific into North America): When this index is positive, it’s associated with high pressure ridging in the western portion of North America and a tendency for low pressure troughing in the eastern portion of North America. This index pulled a fast one on me last year, going weak to moderate positive when I was anticipating weak to moderate negative. This index can be and often is influenced by ENSO, with negative phases associated with La Nina episodes and positive phases associated with El Nino episodes. This index has spent much of the autumn in a positive phase, but recently has trended more to neutral territory. Indications to me, including our tendency to see our La Nina fade to neutral with time, are that this index will remain close to neutral for a good amount of time this winter, with no strong notable impact on the large scale pattern.

Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO), which is similar to NAO, but in the eastern North Pacific: A positive EPO is a mostly zonal or lower amplitude pattern which allows mild Pacific air into the US more readily, while a negative EPO features more high pressure ridging in the northeastern Pacific and Alaska, blocking Pacific air, and driving colder air southward out of Canada into the US, the longitude of the coldest determined at least in part by the placement of high pressure and downstream troughing. Heading into this winter, the strongest indications are for the EPO to want to be in its positive phase. This would leave the door open for more Pacific air to enter the US via the West Coast. What happens from there would be dependent on the status of other indices. One potential is that this index contributes to milder spells for the Northeast especially when low pressure areas find their easiest pathway to be through the Great Lakes if we have the presence of a stronger Southeast Ridge, and the NAO is in its positive phase.

Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), an index that measures water temperature tendencies in the Indian Ocean, and found to have some impact on the large scale climate pattern: A positive IOD features warmer water and increased convective activity in the western Indian Ocean and nearby land masses while cooler water dominates the eastern Indian Ocean with less convective activity and resultant rainfall for southeastern Asia as well as Australia. This phase has been correlated to a stronger PV in the northern hemisphere. A negative IOD produces the opposite – cooler water in the western waters, warmer waters to the east with more convective activity and rain in southeastern Asia / Australia, and a weaker PV in the northern hemisphere. The IOD is again, similar to last winter, anticipated to be neutral this winter, and not a considerable factor of influence.

Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), which describes convective focus in equatorial regions and has 8 phases depending on the location of the normally eastward-drifting convective wave: It’s known that the Northeast has a better shot at snow / wintry weather with MJO in phases 7, 8, and 1 early in the season and in phases 8, 1, and 2 as the winter progresses. The MJO has been the “enemy” of the snow lover many times in southern New England during the last several winters. While some recent signs point toward this index being more of a factor heading into this winter, there is not a 100% certainty as of yet. Previously, a more prominent incarnation of this index found it sitting in phase 6, with promise (if you’re a snow lover) that it’s set to migrate into the early season favorite phases for snowfall as we enter December. But not so fast. There is some pretty solid consensus that this index will make it into phase 7 as we head out of November and into December. And additional indication – though less certain – that it heads toward phase 8 as we near mid December. But there have also been increasing indications recently that the MJO will also display a weakening trend, lessening its overall impact with time. So far, I don’t think it trends to “non-factor” status, but it may end up more as a “muted-factor” index at least for the early part of the winter. If this index follows its typical progression, it will eventually find its way into phases 1 and 2 during mid winter and probably to less favorable places, again from a snow-lover’s perspective, later in the winter. But the wild card remains – how much of a factor will it turn out to be? Time will tell, but for now I’m tempted to put a little less emphasis on this index as a major influence lasting through the winter.

Solar Cycle: This cycle, also known as the solar magnetic activity cycle, sunspot cycle, or Schwabe cycle, is a periodic (about 11 year) change in solar activity as measured by solar storms, or sunspots, on the sun’s surface. There has been a correlation observed that high periods of solar activity tend to correspond to milder winters overall, but this is not a solid correlation and more or a base guideline. A more useful aspect of the ability to measure this is to tell when we may see greater or fewer episodes of the aurora, and the potential for disruptions of satellite communication. Solar Cycle 25, which peaked this past July, has been a giver in terms of aurora displays, with another recent solar storm providing a spectacle on the evening of November 11. While the cycle is past peak, it remains high for winter 2025-2026, but its impact on the winter – i.e., milder influence – may be muted by other factors, which was most certainly the case last year as well.

So there you have it – a look at the major indices that have potential to influence our large scale pattern and resultant weather events for winter-upcoming! As always, I must remind you that even knowing all of this, there is still a significant degree of uncertainty and resultant unpredictability with longer range forecasting. As always, it will be interesting to see what kind of surprises may await that contribute to the conditions defying some of the expectations. It’ll take us all winter to discover it!

So I’m going to do something a little different here, and list from “most influencial” to “least influencial” the indices in terms of how they will impact our winter: 1. AO 2. ENSO 3. QBO 4. NAO 5. MJO 6. HTE 7. PDO 8. EPO 9. PNA 10. SS25 11. IOD

DISCUSSION SUMMARY

It seems like “variability” has been the word of the last few winters, and never has it been as true as how I feel about going into this one. Yes, every season is going to have variability as it’s the nature of our weather anyway. But it looks like the contrasts may be a little more pronounced than usual this go-around. I’m going to paraphrase myself from last year here because I feel this is an important set of points to make and should be repeated: We’re not looking at cold from start to end, warm from start to end, wet / snowy / dry from start to end. There are enough conflicting indices to know we’ll see a few battles to see which one has the greater impacts, and they may wrestle back and forth a few times, but we still should see some general trends that are easier to spot. The aim of the long range forecast is to try to identify what these longer term trends will be. It almost doesn’t matter what the sum of them ends up being, because the impacts of temperature, wind, rain/snow are most strongly felt during the events, not so much over the entire season, but on an event-by-event basis. The longer term trends are more important for things like agriculture, or heating bills. People remember the 2014-2015 winter for its incredible stretch of snow and cold from the very end of January to the very beginning of March, and nearly forget that winter was almost “non existent” up until that point. They remember the individual storms in that stretch, and the stretch itself, but over a much shorter period of time than the entire winter. And with that, it’s now time for me to go to the best possible monthly breakdown I can give you, based on everything discussed above.

DECEMBER

We enter meteorological winter with a battle between a high pressure ridge south of us – “The Southeast Ridge” and an elongated lobe of a disrupted polar vortex making some progress into the US from Canada. We’ll probably see an overall -AO but some oscillation between negative and positive. We’ll be in weak La Nina as a major factor as well as the ongoing easterly QBO. The pattern is likely to alternate between a storm track that brings low pressure areas through the Great Lakes – during +NAO periods, and more of a clipper type storm track during -NAO periods. While we can get some snow from any Great Lakes lows that redevelop just to our south if we’re NAO-negative or transitional, we may see most of whatever snowfall we end up with from the clippers, which would occur during colder spells. There’s a lot of potential volatility in this pattern, and it may seem to frantically flip from one regime to another more than a couple times. This can result in some pretty wild temperature swings, even without significant storminess impacting the region. So while I lean away from some of the “promises” of a very cold and snowy December that you probably heard out there on the internet, I don’t lean far enough away to say it’s going to be a very mild, snowless December either. The truth lies between the two. Because I think we’ll be in “clipper” mode more of the time than we’re in “cutter” mode, the leaning from me will be to slightly below normal in the temperature and precipitation for the month with the result being overall slightly below normal snowfall. Just keep in mind all it takes is one over-producing snow event to put some locations over the top of normal. White Christmas chances? Ask me about a week before the holiday. I’m not going there in this outlook! 😉

JANUARY

Anticipating the behavior and level of impact of the indices discussed above, our January displays some similarities to the December pattern. We know we’re likely to have the easterly QBO humming along, and we’ll be on the watch for a continued unstable PV leading to a leaning toward a -AO and episodic -NAO periods. The question to answer: La Nina holding on, or back to neutral ENSO? Leaning former over latter. The time we spend with -NAO vs +NAO is probably the biggest factor in the snowfall totals for this month. I think we’ll have enough cold around most of the time, unless we have a storm coincide with a +NAO and a time when the SE ridge has made too strong a return. I think that will be the exception though. A lot of variability in temperature should work out to be about the long term average for the month, and both precipitation and snowfall should exceed the long term averages due to the EPO’s contribution of more Pacific moisture to coincide with cold air in place in our neighborhood.

FEBRUARY

Last year, my forecast for February was for a strong PV and positive AO with a milder, drier month. Turns out Mother Nature decided to taunt me for trying to predict that far in advance, and much of the region was a little colder than normal and, while not crazy, it ended up as the snowiest month of the winter. Humbling, but not enough to stop me from trying. This time I’m going to rely on QBO peaking in easterly phase to dishevel the PV enough to supply fairly regular influxes of cold from Canada. One of my favorite major climate models has been adamant about a chilly February for many forecast cycles now, so I can’t say this hasn’t been an influence on me. We should see the EPO’s influence fade with less Pacific moisture available, and we may be back to a clipper-type pattern again to bring us the majority of whatever snow we get. With this being the primary source, it could end up being a drier than normal month overall. MJO is a wildcard here. If it progresses slowly enough, it may still be in a phase favorable to support snow. If not, it may be beyond the favorable phases and into unfavorable ones (3, 4, 5).

MARCH (UNTIL EQUINOX)

By this time, I expect ENSO to be neutral, AO to lean negative, NAO not determinable so a wildcard, QBO still easterly, and no major influence from other indices. Obviously, this month being furthest away from now and long range forecasting being as risky as it is, I’m not going to be highly confident, but if I had to lean in any direction that at least makes it sound like I have an idea – it’s that we’d be in for a near normal temps / near normal precip & snow kind of end to the winter. Always keep an eye out for that renegade bigger hit though, because even though the pattern doesn’t scream “biggies” this winter, you can never rule them out.

WINTER SEASON OVERALL
Temperature: Slightly below normal (departure -1F to -2F).
Precipitation: Slightly below normal (departure about -2 inches).
Snow: Near normal (departures generally within 10 inches of normal for a given location).
-Boston 45-55 inches
-Worcester 65-75 inches
-Providence 40-50 inches
-Hartford 50-60 inches

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 22-26)

A wave of low pressure moves by just to our south this morning to midday sending a rain shield across a good portion of the region – 30 to 50 miles further north than previously expected due to the position of the front it’s on being not as far south. After a wet morning especially in eastern CT, RI, southeastern and eastern MA, we’ll see a dry-out by midday and a clearing trend northwest to southeast this afternoon as the departing low pressure wave pulls the front out to sea. A weak low pressure area coming our way via the Great Lakes on Sunday will send some more clouds back across our sky (mixed with some sunshine). This can produce a rain and/or snow shower in the region mainly Sunday evening but for the most part we’re looking at a dry day. High pressure builds in with fair weather Monday, but the high slides away Tuesday and the warm front from low pressure heading into the Great Lakes moves our way, bringing clouds back yet again and eventually a period of rain, mainly at night. This lifts north and east out of our region by early Wednesday but we’ll be in a rather mild, moist south to southwest air flow that day ahead of a cold front that trails the parent low exiting the Great Lakes and heading for southeastern Canada. That front brings us the chance for additional rain showers with the mild air in place the day before Thanksgiving, so while the weather could be much worse for travel and pre-holiday errands, it could be better too.

TODAY: Overcast morning including a period of rain – steadiest and heaviest along and south of I-90. Clearing trend northwest to southeast this afternoon. Highs 45-52. Wind variable under 10 MPH morning, NW 5-15 MPH afternoon.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 46-53. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy in the evening with a rain or snow shower possible. Clearing overnight. Lows 30-37. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 46-53. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 23-30. Wind calm.

TUESDAY: Clouding over. Chance of rain late, especially western areas. Highs 43-50. Wind calm then SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Rain likely. Areas of fog. Temperatures steady 43-50 evening, may rise slightly overnight. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Areas of fog early. Highs 55-62. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 27 – DECEMBER 1)

The front that brings Wednesday’s showers should clear the coast and be offshore pre-dawn Thanksgiving, which looks dry with a sun/cloud mix and high temps in the 45-55 range regionwide along with a moderate westerly breeze. We then experience a dry stretch with a colder trend Friday 11/28 and Saturday 11/29 – maybe a passing snow flurry from a disturbance moving through at some point but no issues for travel. High pressure slides to our south to end November and start December with fair weather and a milder trend.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 2-6)

Trends point to an East Coast ridge to start the period but also a lot more cold air waiting off to the west and north. As the ridge gives way to this colder air gradually, a battle zone results and brings the chance of some unsettled weather at some point during this period. It remains to be seen if this will take place in a couple events or one larger, longer-duration event. Something to monitor.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 21-25)

It was another car-window-scraping morning for many as high pressure sitting overhead created calm wind and a slight increase in moisture from the Atlantic and provided what was needed for frost to form. Today is a “warm advection” day. You’ll notice this in 2 ways. The first is that it will be a few to several degrees milder today than yesterday. The other way you’ll see it depends on where you live. If you’re in the remote southwestern suburbs of Boston, in RI, eastern CT, and central MA to far southwestern NH, you’ve already seen it in the form of an advancing deck of stratus clouds. If you are further east and northeast of these locations, you may be able to see the approach of that cloud deck (unless you’re on Cape Ann MA or up along the NH Seacoast as of 7:30 a.m. in which case you’re too far away and the deck is below your horizon still. Anyway this cloud deck marks the warming of air and increased mositure at low levels. It’ll make an advance east northeastward and limit the sun for most of the region eventually, but will also develop breaks and allow occasional sun to make a come-back as the afternoon goes on too. Overall, not a bad day today for now late November! But what about this weekend? Well, later today a cold front passes by without much fanfare (rain/snow shower stay up over northern New England and I can remove the chance I had north of I-90 later today from the short-term forecast. The front settles just to the south tonight and a wave of low pressure ripples along it, bringing a quick shot of light rainfall to the South Coast region early Saturday before it heads out to sea, leaving the region generally dry, a little more breezy, and slightly cooler. Sunday’s weather will feature more of a sun / cloud combo as a disturbance moves across the region, but at this time I do not expect it to generate any precipitation for our area. As we are now in a transitional pattern, the timing of systems has been difficult to pin down beyond even a couple days in advance. At this point, I expect that an area of high pressure will provide fair weather for our region Monday, but an approaching trough from the west will send low pressure into the Great Lakes Tuesday – its extending warm front bringing clouds and eventually wet weather chances back to us later that day.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 47-54. Wind SW increasing to 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A period of rain pre-dawn South Coast to possibly MA South Shore. Lows 38-45. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy start then increasing sun but additional passing clouds northwest to southeast. Highs 45-52. Wind NW increasing to 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 46-53. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 46-53. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 23-30. Wind calm.

TUESDAY: Clouding over. Chance of rain late, especially western areas. Highs 43-50. Wind calm then SE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 26-30)

Still a few details to work out for the day-before-Thanksgiving (26th) and Thanksgiving Day (27th) forecasts. With a larger low tracking through the Great Lakes then into southeastern Canada we still have a trough and cold front to move by our region – early Wednesday and sometime later Wednesday to very early Thursday when there are rain shower threats with milder air in place. After that, the trend is drier and colder as there is a larger reservoir of cold air to the west and north to pull from. May have to watch for a minor disturbance to bring a little light snow or flurries to the region sometime Thanksgiving Weekend, but more speculation than anything higher confidence at this point.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 1-5)

There’s still a lot of uncertainty here, driven by the still to-be-determined details of a change in the large scale weather pattern. Expecting a colder overall regime, but we’ll be near the border of what looks like a stretched-out polar vortex and lingering milder air to the southeast as a ridge of high pressure tries to hang on in the southeastern US and offshore Atlantic waters. Progressive disturbances can bring precipitation but the type is determined by what air mass is dominant at the time and what transitions are ongoing. So there is a lot to investigate before coming up with a more confident outlook for the early days of December. General leaning: Temps near to below normal, precipitation near normal.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 20-24)

After a cold overnight with fairly calm winds, we will have a chilly but tranquil day today as a weak area of high pressure sits nearby. A subtle low level flow from the Atlantic has provided enough moisture for some scattered to broken stratus, while a short wave trough at upper levels moving by from west to east has sent a swath of high clouds across the sky. This will keep the sun limited for several hours during today, but eventually we’ll see more of it before it sinks and makes its way to the horizon before 4:20 p.m. A cold front will sweep through the region late Friday, parented by low pressure moving down the St. Lawrence Valley. This front lacks moisture initially, so any rain shower chance timed for Friday evening is rather low. Once it goes by, it becomes quasi-stationary just south of our area and a quick-moving low pressure wave rides along it, but the bulk of the rainfall generated by it will pass to our south in the pre-dawn hours of Saturday, getting far enough north to bring a couple hours of rain to the South Coast and maybe a brief shot of it as far north as the MA South Shore, though currently I’m leaning drier there. Behind this comes an increasing northwesterly breeze and dry weather for the balance of the day Saturday as the low pressure wave strengthens upon departure and high pressure heads are way from the west. The high center slips just south of our region Sunday which will be a fair and seasonably cool day. Monday’s weather looks mainly dry but some clouds move through with a weak trough in a westerly air flow.

TODAY: Lots of clouds with limited sun. Highs 47-54. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 33-40. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 47-54. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A rain shower possible mainly north of I-90. A period of rain pre-dawn South Coast to possibly MA South Shore. Lows 38-45. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

SATURDAY: Limited sun early, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 45-52. Wind NW increasing to 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 46-53. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 47-54. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 25-29)

A low pressure area brings a rain chance (maybe brief mix to the north) later November 25 into November 26 based on current expecting timing, which is a bit faster than yesterday’s expectations. Guidance continues to be wildly inconsistent for the Thanksgiving / Black Friday / into the weekend time frame. There may be another low to watch, favoring the day after Thanksgiving, but highly uncertain.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 30 – DECEMBER 4)

A more significant shot of cold air is possible to end November, and this is associated with the much-talked-about PV disruption. What remains to be seen is if the initial shot of cold is quick-passing or has a little more staying power. The first few days of December are going to be tough to call, but initially I lean chilly to seasonable and mainly dry but having to watch for at least one progressive disturbance.

COMMENTARY

You may have heard many things on social media the last few days ranging from “sneaky snow for today” based on someone grabbing one HRRR model run that was poorly initialized, or getting caught up in the hype of a SSW (Sudden Stratospheric Warming) event that was “supposed to flip our pattern to full on winter with relentless cold and snow” but these are words of hype-masters and wish-casters who don’t really do this for the reason of actually informing the followers, but instead garnering clicks and shares, and/or getting the thrill of being “the one to break the news” even if it’s far-fetched. That said, there is an ongoing event that disrupts the Polar Vortex, which while not a frequent occurrence is also not something that would be a surprise, and also does not guarantee any single area sees an abundance of any specific kind of weather either – at least until we get a chance to properly scientifically examine the evolution of the event and the pattern that results, the details of it, and the duration of it. As a forecaster, that’s something I’ll be doing in proper timing. In other words, I’m not going to tell you that we have a super high chance of the snowiest December in years because I simply don’t know about that yet. We just passed the half way point of November. And while “meteorlogical winter” is just under 2 weeks from its start, actual winter is still over a month away from arriving. We’re in late autumn, not winter, right now. One event, one pattern change, one thing at a time. Looking ahead is perfectly fine – that’s why it’s called “forecasting”, but apply the science that error increases as time beyond the initial does. You’ll do better. If the consumer realizes this is a fact of the science of meteorology, they’ll do better too.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 19-23)

The last few days featured a lot of wind and chilly air. Today, we still have chilly air, but a much more tranquil day as a small area of high pressure has built over our region and relaxed the lower atmosphere – i.e., taken away the pressure gradient that was present between the approach of this high pressure area and the very slow departure of an expansive area of low pressure spinning about in Atlantic Canada. You will notice today that we will have a veil of high cloudiness moving across the southern sky, even some mid level clouds underneath the higher deck especially closer to the South Coast, limiting the sun even more than just the filtering the higher clouds do to it further north. This is from a small low pressure system being shunted just south of our region from what remains of the blocking pattern that was in place for a while. A high pressure area that had been parked over Greenland now drifts eastward on a journey toward northwestern Europe and this relaxes the block and opens the door for a storm track that moves through the Great Lakes into eastern Canada more easily. This more progressive pattern means several upcoming changes to our weather and things to keep track of as we head through the rest of this week (and next week – Thanksgiving Week – which I’ll talk about in the next section). We’ll keep fair weather Thursday as high pressure hangs on, although an upper disturbance passing by to our south will again produce some cloudiness in the region, limiting the sunshine. The next thing I’ve been watching is how the late-week unsettled weather threat was going to play out. After seeing a variety of model solutions and watching trends here, how I think it plays out is that low pressure travels through the Great Lakes then down the St. Lawrence Valley late Friday and Friday night, dragging its cold front across our region. Milder air ahead of this system means that any showers that are triggered by the front would be in the form of rain. Additionally, as the front passes, a weak wave of low pressure will get going on it and pass just to our south, and this can toss a short-duration shield of light rainfall into the South Coast region, maybe up as far north as the MA South Shore in the pre-dawn hours of Saturday. The quick movement of this system means that any wet weather threat is gone by about sunrise Saturday, and other than a deck of clouds “delaying sunrise” aka making the sun not visible for a while as it rises, it looks like a dry day. We will see it turn a bit cooler than Friday along with an increasing breeze as the day goes on, but not as windy or cold as the days early this week were. A bubble of high pressure will scoot just south of us on Sunday, keeping our weather fair and seasonably cool for late November. If you like to get a jump on decorating outside for the holidays, this coming weekend looks ideal for doing just that.

TODAY: Sunshine will be brightest in southern NH / northern MA, filtered to dimmed further to the south by some high and patchy middle cloudiness. Highs 46-53. Wind W 5-15 MPH diminishing and becoming variable under 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind calm.

THURSDAY: Clouds limit the sun. Highs 47-54. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 33-40. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 47-54. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A rain shower possible mainly north of I-90. A period of rain pre-dawn South Coast to possibly MA South Shore. Lows 38-45. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

SATURDAY: Limited sun early, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 45-52. Wind NW increasing to 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 47-54. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 24-28)

There are potential disturbances to bring at least marginally unsettled weather about every other day during Thanksgiving Week (holiday is November 27). Watching November 24, 26, 28 for best unsettled weather chances, with some up and down temperatures (averaging near to slightly above normal for the period) with the quick-changes as well. Deterministic details are impossible this far in advance with this type of pattern. Obviously much fine-tuning to come.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 29 – DECEMBER 3)

A more significant shot of cold air is possible to end November – timing and details are TBD. Leaning chilly/dry for the start of December but with low confidence. Medium range guidance shows a comical variety of outcomes here, so this is just based on my overall feel of the larger scale set-up I think we will have at the time.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 18-22)

Blocking relaxes over the next few days. As mentioned on yesterday’s discussion, we keep the blustery chilly weather today between high pressure to the west and a large storm system in Atlantic Canada, before high pressure builds in with more tranquil conditions Wednesday and Thursday. During later Wednesday and early Thursday, a smaller low pressure area will slide out just south of New England, throwing some of its high and mid level cloudiness into our sky, but its precipitation remaining south of the area. Friday, another low will head through the Great Lakes and down the St. Lawrence Valley, and its cold front can bring us some rain showers at some point during that day – timing to be fine-tuned. This system will push offshore with it now looking more likely that Saturday will be dry with a brisk northwesterly breeze.

TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 40-47. Wind W 10-20 MPH, gusts around 25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 23-30 except 28-35 coastal areas and urban centers. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun becomes filtered by high clouds at times. Highs 46-53. Wind W 5-15 MPH diminishing and becoming variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind calm.

THURSDAY: Clouds limit the sun. Highs 47-54. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 33-40. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 47-54. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 31-38. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 23-27)

Guidance remains somewhat wishy-washy on deterministic details which are harder to determine out this far anyway. Eyeing November 24 for a potential wet weather event. Other systems to watch: November 26 but should pass south. At the moment, timing leads me to lean toward dry weather for Thanksgiving Day.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 28 – DECEMBER 2)

Same mode of thinking. We watch for a larger intrusion of cold air into the US at some point around the end of Thanksgiving Weekend into the first couple days of December, but with a lot of uncertainty as to timing and where the thrust of the cold would be. In our region, I expect a low pressure area to track through the Great Lakes early in the period and sweep a strong cold front through here with at least an initial shot of colder air behind it. After that the leaning is for a seasonable to chilly but dry pattern.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 17-21)

The Greenland Block that has been the main driver of our weather pattern lately is going to dissolve this week, but it won’t happen all at once. It remains strong enough to hold in place a gusty breeze and chilly weather between low pressure in southeastern Canada and an area of high pressure approaching from the west through Tuesday. It gives way a bit more by midweek, but at that time we’ll have high pressure building right over our region, which will shunt a small storm system south of the region – out to sea. During Thursday and Friday, the high pressure area that sat near Greenland will finally drift eastward across the far northern Atlantic and open up the avenue for the next low pressure area to cut through the Great Lakes and into southeastern Canada. This will happen on Friday, when we have our next chance of wet weather in the form of rain showers, with temperatures a bit milder than they will be early in the week due to an influx of Pacific air moving across the northern US and arriving here. Regarding the Friday wet weather threat, there has been some disagreement among the various computer models as to just how much rain will take place. At the present time, I am leaning toward a fairly light and short-lived event due to the ability for low pressure to move more quickly along a newly configured jet stream, and not much ability to pick up moisture from the south on its journey. It being several days away, I’ll watch trends here for both precipitation amounts and timing and update through the week.

TODAY: A sun/cloud mix with a slight chance of a brief passing snow flurry. Highs 38-45. Wind W 10-20 MPH with gusts around 30 MPH, strongest over Cape Cod and higher elevation locations.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Lows 25-32, except 30-37 Cape Cod. Wind W 5-15 MPH, gusting around 20 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 40-47. Wind W 10-20 MPH, gusts around 25 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 23-30 except 28-35 coastal areas and urban centers. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 46-53. Wind W 5-15 MPH diminishing and becoming variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Lows 21-28 interior valleys to 25-32 elsewhere. Wind calm.

THURSDAY: A sun/cloud mix. Highs 47-54. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 32-39. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 47-54. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 22-26)

During this period we have a Pacific flow pattern without blocking. What I expect is that a follow-up low pressure on the front that goes by the day before will pass south of our region to start the weekend on November 22, so a dry, breezy, and seasonable outlook for that day, with fair weather into Sunday as well as a weak area of high pressure moves over the region. With only moderate confidence at best I forecast the next low pressure to ride our way from the west southwest about November 24 with a milder pattern in place, so a rain chance for that time. Behind that system should come a return to drier and slightly cooler weather toward the middle of next week during the busy pre-Thanksgiving travel period, which if correct would be good news for this area.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 27 – DECEMBER 1)

This period of time, starting with Thanksgiving Day on November 27 and leading up to when we flip the calendar from November to December, is rather tricky. No doubt you’ve heard chatter on social media and some news outlets about a potential pattern change to allow colder air to spill into the country as the polar vortex undergoes a disruption. These disruptions are quite hard to pin down for both timing and just how the break-down will configure itself – troughs vs. ridges, quasi-stationary vs. progressive pattern. This pattern shift may begin to take place during this period, but may be slower than a lot of guidance suggests, so for the time-being I will continue to forecast a storm track into the Great Lakes, with one such system doing just that at some point during this period, with milder weather ahead of it and a cooler shot of air behind it. No other detail is possible at this time, but it’s something I’ll track closely as we head into late November.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 16-20)

Low pressure accelerates into Atlantic Canada today, intensifying and expanding its circulation. After a round of beneficial rain – that started as sleet in some areas and included thunder in some areas too – we’ll dry out today with increasing wind. It’ll be relatively mild at first, but a colder air mass arriving behind the departing storm system will cause the temperature to fall starting this afternoon, and while we remain in a brisk west to northwest air flow through Tuesday we’ll experience below normal temperatures, but with generally dry weather (only the risk of a brief passing rain shower this afternoon and snow flurry tonight and/or Monday). By Wednesday, high pressure builds in for more tranquil weather conditions. While this is occurring, what’s left of the Greenland Blocking pattern will send one more disturbance to our south and allow high pressure to remain in place through Thursday with continued fair weather.

TODAY: Lots of clouds / intervals of sun. Slight chance of a quick-passing rain shower. Highs 50-57. Wind shifting to W and increasing to 10-20 MPH with gusts 25-35 MPH, strongest over higher elevations.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of a brief passing snow flurry. Lows 28-35. Wind W to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of a brief passing snow flurry. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 21-28 except 28-35 immediate coast and urban centers. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 18-25 inland low elevations, 25-32 elsewhere. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 46-53. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 25-32. Wind calm.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 47-54. Wind variable to SW up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 21-25)

Greenland block is gone and the storm track shifts into one that takes low pressure areas into the Great Lakes, the first of which will do so at the beginning of the period bringing us unsettled weather late next week. Still have to work out timing for a rain threat on November 21 and if there will be any follow-up unsettled weather over the weekend of November 22-23, or if we see 2 more distinctive systems November 21 & 24. Either scenario is possible. I’ll watch trends on this and fine-tune this forecast. Temperatures for this period while typically variable should average slightly above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 26-30)

Thanksgiving is November 27. The weather pattern from midweek Thanksgiving week through the holiday weekend will be similar with a leaning to milder than average for the period overall, and 1 or 2 threats of unsettled weather depending on timing of weather systems. Much more to come soon!

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 15-19)

Half-way through November and currently we’re in a fast-flow pattern that’s been bringing frequent disturbances from the west and northwest, but none of them very big precipitation producers. They have served to pull in a series of chilly air masses from Canada though, and this pattern rolls on through this weekend into the first half of next week. The next low pressure area will make a fast run through the region tonight, with a primary low passing just to our north, its warm front extending ahead of it to give us a fairly short-lived period of wet weather tonight, but a good punch of mid level instability spells the chance of embedded thunderstorms with the rain. The trailing cold front brings a chance of a final rain shower around sunrise on Sunday as the low begins to redevelop near the coast of Maine. This redevelopment will become a more intense storm as it pulls away into Atlantic Canada from Sunday into the early part of the week, bringing windy conditions back to our region and, after a relatively milder Sunday, below normal temperatures after that. By Wednesday, winds diminish and it becomes more tranquil with high pressure building in.

TODAY: Brightest uninterrupted sunshine this morning before clouds increase during the afternoon. Highs 42-49. Wind NW 5-15 MPH becoming variable and diminishing to under 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Becoming cloudy. A period of rain mid evening to overnight, may start as sleet in some locations. Chance of embedded thunderstorms. Lows 33-40 evening, rising slowly overnight. Wind variable under 10 MPH becoming S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Early-day clouds with a quick rain shower possible, then sunshine and passing clouds with a quick rain shower possible. Highs 50-57. Wind S shifting to W increasing to 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind W to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of a brief snow flurry. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 21-28 except 28-35 immediate coast and urban centers. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 18-25 inland low elevations, 25-32 elsewhere. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 46-53. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 20-24)

Storm track shifts to send a low pressure into the Great Lakes with possible redevelopment closer to New England late next week – details still to be determined. Temperatures moderate to slightly above normal for a few days before cooling slightly at mid period. We may hear from the next low pressure area as early as the end of the period, but not sure on that timing yet.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 25-29)

This time period is now 2 days before Thanksgiving, the holiday itself, and the 2 days after, and is very important for travel, holiday activities, etc. As of now, the pattern still looks milder, but not completely dry. Timing and magnitude of systems and impact on our area is uncertain this far out, but the general storm track is still into the Great Lakes.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 14-18)

The fast-flow pattern continues. Today we’re still in a brisk northwesterly air flow behind the latest disturbance which went through yesterday. A cold pool of air aloft will continue to promote some cloud development today but it will be less extensive than yesterday, however still able to produce a brief passing light shower of rain or mix – though the extreme majority of the region will just have a dry day. High pressure builds in tonight into Saturday – a northward extension of a high centered to our south, and also sliding offshore as the day goes on. The next low pressure system charges our way via the Great Lakes and its warm front spreads a shield of high clouds across our sky as early as midday Saturday, and the day will end with a thickening overcast. The warm front will produce a period of precipitation – mainly rain, but can start as a brief mix in parts of southern NH – during Saturday evening which exits pre-dawn Sunday. The cold front can cause one more rain shower to move through during early to mid morning Sunday, and as that passes offshore and its parent low intensifies upon departure, we’ll see the wind make a come-back during Sunday with just the chance of a quick passing rain/mix shower, otherwise dry weather returns. While Sunday’s temperature is seasonably cool, additional cold advection will drive a colder than normal chill into the area for Monday, along with additional gusty wind making it feel even colder. Monday looks dry in general, but the type of day we have to watch for an isolated snow flurry from moisture that makes it over the hills / mountains to our west from the Great Lakes region. High pressure builds toward the region Tuesday while low pressure still spins in Atlantic Canada, so we’ll continue chilly and breezy that day with fair weather.

TODAY: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of a passing shower of rain/mix. Highs 44-51. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 26-33. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 42-49. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. A period of rain, may begin as a brief period of sleet. Slight chance of a thunderstorm especially western areas. Lows 33-40 early, then rising slightly. Wind variable under 10 MPH becoming S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy until mid morning with passing rain showers. A sun/cloud mix thereafter with only a slight chance of a passing rain/mix shower. Highs 43-50. Wind W to NW increasing to 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. A brief snow flurry possible early. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill can fall below 20.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of a brief snow flurry. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 21-28. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 19-23)

Storm track shifts to send a low pressure into the Great Lakes with possible redevelopment closer to New England late next week – details TBA. Temperatures start the period below normal then trend milder before an end-of-period chill-down.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 24-28)

This outlook goes through “Black Friday” and this important travel and Thanksgiving holiday period is one of the most scrutinized for weather of the entire year. Trends / indications still for a Great Lakes storm track. One or two systems need to be watched for potential weather impact here but neither look major this far in advance. Temperature trend is to a little above normal for this period overall, but some variability day-to-day.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 13-17)

Chilly northwest to north air flow today and tomorrow with colder air aloft triggering daily clouds, more today than tomorrow, including the chance of a sprinkle of rain, mix, or snow each day, higher chance today. High pressure brings fair, tranquil weather Saturday. Quickly in comes the next small low pressure area via the Great Lakes at night, with overnight and early Sunday morning rain due to milder air aloft, but may begin quickly enough for some mixed snow/rain in southern NH, but it ends quickly Sunday morning as low pressure exits. Like several other recent departing systems, this one too will rapidly intensify upon departing, leading to windy weather and a chill-down later Sunday through Monday, with the return of dry weather other than once again the chance of a passing brief rain or snow shower.

TODAY: Partly sunny. A brief passing rain/mix/snow shower possible. Highs Highs 45-52. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of a passing sprinkle/mix/flurry. Highs 44-51. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 26-33. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 43-50. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. A period of rain – some mix possible southern NH briefly. Lows 35-42 early, then rising slightly. Wind variable under 10 MPH becoming S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy very early with rain ending, then a sun/cloud mix and a slight chance of a passing rain shower. Highs 43-50. Wind W to NW increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT / MONDAY: Variably cloudy. A passing light rain/snow shower possible. Lows 32-39. Highs 46-53. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 18-22)

Blocking pattern stays in place but shifts orientation eastward slightly during this period. We’ll watch for the next low pressure system mid period heading for the Great Lakes with a possibility to redevelop closer to New England. It remains to be seen how much impact this system will have on our region.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 23-27)

No changes to this part of the outlook with expected main storm track into Great Lakes and a bit milder pattern for our region. But any storms do need to be watched for redevelopment further south and east depending on the degree of blocking in place. This is the period leading up to and including Thanksgiving (November 27). Most likely day for storm impact is November 24, but when you see the word “storm” don’t think necessarily “big event” – just something to keep an eye on this far out and monitor trends.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 12-16)

The Greenland Block pattern continues. A fairly weak, fast-moving disturbance crosses are area today with lots of clouds and a brief, minor precipitation threat in the form of potential light rain/mix north and a few rain showers South Coast, followed by a return to breezy weather Thursday and Friday with a passing sprinkle/flurry possible each day as upper level low pressure crosses the region. High pressure provides a fair weather interlude with less wind Saturday before the next disturbance moves rapidly our way via the Great Lakes Saturday night into Sunday with another rather brief period of precipitation – leaning toward rain for most of the region with a low pressure track just to the north and a redevelopment overhead and just to the east as the system moves quickly offshore. The windy, chilly conditions return during Sunday behind that system.

TODAY: Cloudy into midday with a touch of light rain/mix possible mainly I-90 belt northward, and some rain showers South Coast into early afternoon. Clouds think and break for some sunshine afternoon. Highs 46-53. Wind variable under 10 MPH becoming SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. A brief passing rain/mix shower possible. Highs Highs 45-52. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. A slight chance of a passing sprinkle/flurry (if early enough). Highs 44-51. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 26-33. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 43-50. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. A period of rain – some mix possible southern NH briefly. Lows 35-42 early, then rising slightly. Wind variable under 10 MPH becoming S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy very early with rain ending, then a sun/cloud mix and a slight chance of a passing rain shower. Highs 43-50. Wind W to NW increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 17-21)

Blocking pattern stays in place but shifts orientation eastward slightly during this period. We’ll watch for the next low pressure system mid to late period heading for the Great Lakes with a possibility to redevelop closer to New England.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 22-26)

No changes to this part of the outlook with expected main storm track into Great Lakes and a bit milder pattern for our region. But any storms do need to be watched for redevelopment further south and east depending on the degree of blocking in place. This is the pre-Thanksgiving travel period so the weather becomes very important during this stretch of days and more refining of this forecast will be upcoming.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 11-15)

The large scale pattern now features a “Greenland Block” set-up with high pressure over the ice block super-sized island, forcing colder air into the northeastern US along with a series of disturbances. Today is Veteran’s Day and I’d like to thank any veterans reading for their service! Veteran’s Day ceremonies outside today will be met with a gusty breeze and below normal temperatures today as we are in a strong westerly air flow behind a cold front. Enough instability and cold air combines for a few light convective showers developing in our area and/or migrating this far from the Great Lakes. Precipitation will be insignificant, but for some areas the first snowflakes of the season will be seen. The next disturbance comes our way via the Great Lakes Wednesday, and while upper levels cool to produce a mainly cloudy day as the trough passes overhead, the surface temps will moderate a little with a southwesterly breeze. Spotty very light rain (maybe brief mix if early enough and far enough inland) can occur, but for the most part it will be the cloudiness that’s dominant and not the precipitation. Thursday will be today junior with a gusty breeze, a chill, and maybe a passing sprinkle or snow flurry, and Friday will be a similar but with a slightly lower chance of a sprinkle or flurry, mainly in higher elevation areas. Saturday will feature fair weather with high pressure in control to start the weekend.

TODAY (VETERAN’S DAY): Clouds with intervals of sun. A brief snow flurry or sprinkle of rain possible, favoring higher elevations north and west of Boston. Highs 40-47. Wind W 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-35 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 27-34. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. A touch of light rain possible anywhere at times, even some early-day mix may occur mainly north of I-90. Highs 47-54. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. A brief passing rain/mix shower possible. Highs Highs 45-52. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. A slight chance of a passing sprinkle/flurry (if early enough). Highs 44-51. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 26-33. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 43-50. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 16-20)

Blocking pattern stays in place but shifts orientation eastward slightly during the course of this period. Initially, a system will head east southeast through the Northeast in a west northwest air flow and can bring some light snow/mix/rain to the region to end the weekend on November 16, with some unsettled weather potentially lingering into November 17 if the system is strung out enough as it moves underneath blocking high pressure to the north. Fair weather dominates the middle of next week but toward the end of the period low pressure heads for the Great Lakes and brings clouds and maybe a precipitation chance back to the region at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 21-25)

No changes to this part of the outlook with expected main storm track into Great Lakes and a bit milder pattern for our region. But any storms that track into the G.L. need to be watched for redevelopment southeastward or quasi-cutoff tendencies depending on the degree of atmospheric blocking still in place. So there remains some uncertainty and low confidence here.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 10-14)

At upper levels, a low pressure trough will continue its slow trek across the Northeast early to mid week. At the surface, a warm front continues to drift northward across the region with light wind, areas of drizzle and fog in place, with a few rain showers as well, with a more southerly air flow set to take over toward midday as that front lifts northward and a cold frontal boundary approaches from the west. A wave of low pressure developing on that boundary will prolong occasional rainfall through the daylight hours. Tonight, the low moves beyond our region and opens the door for a drier, colder air mass from the west. Tuesday, Veteran’s Day, will be a chilly and windy day, with mainly dry weather, but we’ll have to watch for passing sprinkles of rain and flurries of snow due to cold air aloft associated with the upper level trough. An additional disturbance will dive out of the Great Lakes region and through this trough on Wednesday, bringing us lots of clouds. Previously, my forecast called for any precipitation with this system to remain north of our region, but I do need to include the chance for a little light rain/mix here, albeit insignificant. After the departure of this system, Thursday’s weather will resemble what is expected on Tuesday with breezy, chilly conditions, with a slight chance of a passing light shower of rain/mix/snow in a few areas. I’m expecting a little faster timing for the disturbance I previously mentioned for the start of the weekend, which shifts Friday’s forecast to include the chance of brief, insignificant precipitation.

TODAY: Overcast. Area of fog and drizzle with isolated to scattered showers this morning, then periods of rain this afternoon. Highs 53-60. Wind variable under 10 MPH early, becoming S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Rain showers and a possible thunderstorm early, followed by breaking clouds. Lows 33-40. Wind shifting to W and increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TUESDAY (VETERAN’S DAY): Clouds with intervals of sun. A brief snow flurry or sprinkle of rain possible, favoring higher elevations north and west of Boston. Highs 40-47. Wind W 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-35 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 27-34. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. A touch of light rain even some early-day mix may occur mainly north of I-90. Highs 47-54. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. A brief passing rain/mix shower possible. Highs Highs 45-52. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. A rain/mix shower possible. Highs 46-53. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 15-19)

High pressure brings fair weather to the region for the November 15-16 weekend with seasonable temps. Storm tracks into the Great Lakes early next week bringing a shot at unsettled weather to our region, followed by a return to fair weather toward the middle of next week.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 20-24)

Watching one or two low pressure systems to track toward the Great Lakes with the potential to redevelop closer to New England bringing additional unsettled weather chances. Low confidence forecast. Still no temperature extremes indicated.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 9-13)

An upper trough moves slowly through the Northeast today through Tuesday. It first produces unsettled weather from an initial low pressure area approaching from the southwest later today when its warm front generates some rainfall, especially later this afternoon and evening. A low level onshore flow will add moisture for drizzle and fog tonight into early Monday, and as the first low’s cold front reaches the coast Monday, additional low pressure triggered by the upper trough will prolong rain chances through the day, which finally come to an end in the evening as the low moves by and pulls the front offshore. Behind this comes a shot of colder air for Tuesday, Veteran’s Day, along with a mix of sun and abundant clouds as the upper low still has to finish crossing the region. These clouds can produce a sprinkle of rain or a light snow shower (especially in higher elevations) but no serious precipitation will occur. It will be “seriously chilly” and quite breezy however. So if you plan to be outside for Veteran’s Day ceremonies or any other reason, my suggestion is to dress for below normal chill and a biting breeze with wind chill temps in the 30s. A disturbance in a northwesterly air flow will bring lots of clouds to our region Wednesday, though I expect any light precipitation to stay north of our region. This will be followed by fair and windy weather Thursday. Temperatures will remain below normal through the mid week period.

TODAY: Partial sun early favoring eastern MA and the South Coast, otherwise mainly cloudy. Patchy light rain north central MA to south central NH early to mid morning. Rain chances increase from south to north late-day. Chance of thunderstorms South Coast region end-of-day. Highs 48-55, coolest coast. Wind N shifting to E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Occasional drizzle. Periods of rain evening including a thunderstorm chance mainly Cape Cod area. Temperatures steady 48-55 or may rise slightly. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog early. Periods of rain. Highs 55-62. Wind S 5-15 MPH, shifting to W late.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 33-40. Wind W increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TUESDAY (VETERAN’S DAY): Clouds with intervals of sun. A brief snow flurry or sprinkle of rain possible, favoring higher elevations north and west of Boston. Highs 40-47. Wind W 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-35 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 27-34. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 47-54. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs Highs 45-52. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 14-18)

The upper flow sends one more disturbance our way via the Great Lakes from the west northwest around November 15 with brief light precipitation possible. After this, the upper flow shifts to take a more robust low pressure system into the Great Lakes mid to late period. Depending on the degree of high latitude blocking in place, we’ll have to watch for that system, if it occurs as prognosticated, to try redeveloping and/or cutting off closer to our area with a greater thread of unsettled weather. This is not a high confidence forecast but a current best-guess. Temperatures near to slightly below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 19-23)

The pattern that establishes itself toward the end of the 6 to 10 day period continues here as well, although this outlook does remain lower than average confidence at this time and I’ll continue to monitor pattern trends and medium range guidance’s reaction to them. No temperature extremes indicated.