DAYS 1-5 (JULY 16-20)

The heat / humidity combo peaks today under high pressure aloft with surface high pressure offshore. While we keep the humidity into Thursday, the heat gets knocked back a peg as we have more clouds along with shower and thunderstorm chances as a disturbance and cold front approach. There will probably be 2 our 3 rounds of shower and storm chances through evening, and the potential does exist for a few severe storms. The cold front that I was eyeing for late week passes by more quickly than originally anticipated, and this allows me to forecast the heat easing and the humidity dropping noticeably on Friday, with the showers and storms out of the forecast for that day. Even cooler and drier air will arrive for Saturday via Canada as high pressure builds into the region. Quick-moving systems means that next disturbance arrives Sunday bringing the chance of showers and thunderstorms back to the region – though it looks like more time will be rain-free than wet on that day. Timing may even be quick enough that most of the wet weather threat is the first half of the day, but that is TBD, so check updates in the next few days for Sunday’s forecast fine-tune!

TODAY: Plenty of sun & a few popcorn clouds. Highs 87-94, 79-86 South Coast. Dew point 68-75. Wind S to SW up to 10 MPH, a few higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Patchy fog in low elevations. Lows 69-76. Dew point 67-73. Wind S to SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered to numerous showers / thunderstorms. Highs 85-92, cooler South Coast. Dew point 68-75. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Chance of showers and thunderstorms early, otherwise partly cloudy. Fog patches especially in areas that saw rainfall Lows 68-75 with similar dew points. Wind SW to W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 83-90. Dew point falls through 60s. Wind W to NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 59-66. Dew point falls to upper 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point sub-60. Wind N up to 10 MPH with light coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear evening. Clouds arrive overnight. Lows 62-69. Dew point rises to 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms possible. Highs 80-87. Dew point in 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH, shifting to W.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 21-25)

Large scale pattern features a ridge in the middle of the US and our area in a northwest flow to its east. During this 5-day period a couple passing disturbances / fronts can bring a shower or thunderstorm, otherwise dry weather dominates with variable temperatures averaging close to normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 26-30)

Strongest indications are that the pattern changes very little heading through late July – northwest flow, limited shower / t-storm chances, variable temperatures averaging not too far from normal overall.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 15-19)

What’s left of a cold front drifts offshore and dissipates today, but brings lingering showers to Cape Cod, Martha’s Vineyard, and Nantucket first. High pressure builds offshore with predominant heat and humidity through midweek. Some short range guidance has shown the possibility for an isolated shower / thunderstorm popping up this afternoon and with the higher dew point air and a couple boundaries around from recent rain showers, I can see that as a slight chance, but after the early showers leave southeastern areas, it will be a generally rain-free day. Wednesday’s rain chance is nil. It is Thursday, when a trough approaches and passes, and Friday, when a cold front swings through, that have shower and thunderstorm opportunities, both of which will be focused on more closely starting with my next update. Behind that late-week cold front comes a pleasant air mass for the start of the weekend.

TODAY: Cloudy start with showers Cape Cod / Islands, otherwise a sun / cloud mix with only the slightest chance of an isolated pop-up PM shower. Highs 83-90 except 75-82 CC / Islands. Dew point middle 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lower elevation fog patches. Lows 65-72. Dew point near 65. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 86-93 but a bit cooler coastal areas especially Cape Cod. Dew point 65+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Patchy fog in low elevations. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered to numerous showers / thunderstorms. Highs 85-92, cooler South Coast. Dew point near 70. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Chance of showers and thunderstorms early, otherwise variably cloudy with patchy fog. Lows 70-77. Dew point 70+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs 81-88. Dew point 70+, may drop late-day west to east. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, shifting to NW from west to east.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 60-67. Dew point falls toward 60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point sub-60. Wind N up to 10 MPH with light coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 20-24)

Northwest flow dominates. Disturbances around July 20 and one or two more after that bring passing shower and thunderstorm chances while most times are rain-free. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 25-29)

Large scale pattern features a ridge of high pressure in the central US. West to northwest flow here brings variable temps averaging near to above normal and passing disturbances can bring a couple shower and thunderstorm chances but again much of the time fair weather would rule.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 14-18)

Mid July. July weather in the forecast. Sounds about right! This week will feature fairly high humidity, some heat, and several thunderstorm chances. High pressure offshore pumps in the warm and humid air today, and a trough and cold front approaching from the west triggers showers and storms to our west this afternoon. Later timing on the frontal boundary, which is losing identity as is, means that the activity is likely to peak to our west, but still can be fairly potent entering western portions of the forecast area by late afternoon, but losing potency while moving into eastern areas this evening. Areas that do see a stronger one can experience gusty wind and torrential rain with brief, localized flooding. Activity will fade while moving east and southeast tonight, but what is left of the frontal boundary will still be over southeastern sections into Tuesday morning, and can help ignite additional showers until about midday before it moves offshore and largely dissipates. This leads to continued warm and fairly humid weather Tuesday, and a building of heat and higher humidity as we head into Wednesday, a day that high pressure should prevent pop-up storms for the region – though borderline so maybe an isolated one mainly well west and northwest of Boston where than can be some orographic aid from hills. Thursday, heat and humidity continue, but a disturbance approaching from the west means afternoon thunderstorms will become more likely (more on this chance in the next couple updates). Friday, we keep the humidity, but maybe turn down the heat a notch with more cloudiness as a cold front approaches and crosses the region, triggering more showers and storms.

TODAY: Areas of low clouds and fog dissipate early to mid morning, otherwise a sun/cloud mix with more clouds later in the day. Showers/thunderstorms become likely western areas mid to late afternoon and probable eastern areas evening – some strong with gusty winds / downpours, but a weakening trend while activity moves toward the east. Highs 81-88. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Lingering showers and possibly a thunderstorm early, favoring eastern areas. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy with least sun morning and most sun afternoon. Additional showers possible RI and southeastern MA mainly until midday. Highs 82-89. Dew point 60+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lower elevation fog patches. Lows 65-71. Dew point near 65. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 86-93 but a bit cooler coastal areas especially Cape Cod. Dew point 65+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog in low elevation locations. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun / cloud mix. Afternoon thunderstorms develop west to east. Highs 85-92 except cooler South Coast. Dew point 70+. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Chance of showers and thunderstorms early, otherwise variably cloudy with patchy fog. Lows 70-77. Dew point 70+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely, generally in the afternoon. Highs 82-89. Dew point 70+, may drop late-day west to east. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, shifting to NW late-day from west to east.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 19-23)

High pressure provides fair, warm weather but lower humidity July 19, starting the weekend on a nice note. Question for July 20 is how fast does the next disturbance arrive from the west with shower and t-storm chances. Leaning toward quicker timing and a threat before day’s end, but may get through much of day before that. This timing would allow it to clear out for July 21 but need to watch for next disturbance and shower/t-storm threat later in the period as we establish a faster west northwest flow pattern aloft.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 24-28)

Large scale pattern features a ridge of high pressure in the central US. West to northwest flow here brings variable temps that can include heat shots, and disturbances that can bring a couple thunderstorm chances, although rain-free weather would be dominant.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 13-17)

High pressure offshore continues to sink southward, and similar to yesterday we’ll see a morning stratus and fog layer burn off to a sun/cloud mix, and a general southeasterly flow keeps the coastal areas cooler than the interior as we remain fairly humid today. A more southerly air flow takes over tonight and Monday ahead of a cold front, which will bring an increasing shower and thunderstorm chance from west to east late-day and night, but as the activity is starting to dwindle due to the loss of solar heating. The front will be slow to cross, as previously mentioned, and this brings about the chance for additional showers into a portion of Tuesday, mainly along and east of I-95, with a diminishment of the chance as the front slides offshore. High pressure builds on Wednesday, both surface, and aloft, resulting in a sunny day with the air heating up, but a potential sea breeze capping the rise at the coast. A little change from yesterday’s outlook is prompted by fairly reliable guidance showing a stronger trough approaching on Thursday as we see a warm to hot, humid southerly air flow. This can increase the potential for thunderstorms before day’s end.

TODAY: Low clouds and areas of fog give way to a mix of sun and clouds. Highs 75-82 coast, 82-89 inland. Dew point 65+. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 65+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Late-day showers and thunderstorms possible, mainly west of I-95. Highs 82-89 except 75-82 South Coast. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind S to variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy with least sun morning and most sun afternoon. Additional showers possible RI and southeastern MA. Highs 82-89. Dew point 60+. Wind variable to W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 61-68. Dew point falls below 60. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 85-92 but a bit cooler coastal areas especially Cape Cod. Dew point near 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog in low elevation locations. Lows 58-65. Dew point near 60. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun / cloud mix. Afternoon thunderstorms develop west to east. Highs 85-92 except cooler South Coast. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 18-22)

A cold front moves through during July 18 with additional showers and thunderstorms along with high humidity. High pressure builds in with fair weather to start the July 19-20 weekend but a vigorous disturbance from the west northwest, signaling a shift in the pattern, may arrive as early as July 20 with t-storm chances, followed by fair and warm to hot weather early the following week. May have to tweak that disturbance timing on future updates due to normal uncertainty with guidance so far in advance.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 23-27)

Large scale pattern features a ridge of high pressure in the central US. West to northwest flow here brings variable temps that can include heat shots, and disturbances that can bring thunderstorm chances, although rain-free weather would be dominant.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 12-16)

High pressure offshore, sinking slowly southward, provides mild to warm, humid weather this weekend, with a passing disturbance bringing only the chance of a pop up shower or thunderstorm to the hills of north central MA and southwestern NH this afternoon. Otherwise, it’s a rain-free weekend. Broad scale southeasterly air flow will keep coastal areas cooler than inland areas during the days, and areas of fog will form at night, dissipating after sunrise. Above the low cloud / fog layer this morning is a swath of higher clouds fanning off thunderstorms in Upstate NY, so as clouds break there will still be some other clouds above that, limiting the sun for a while. Tomorrow this should not be the case, and breaking up of the fog and stratus layer will lead to more sunshine. By Monday, a cold front approaches from the west, and a southerly air flow ahead of it bumps up the low level moisture and brings back more cloudiness. Showers and thunderstorms firing up ahead of this front may arrive by late-day, mainly to the west, but much of the day likely ends up being rain-free due to the later timing of the front, which will also be somewhat slow to make its way through the region. This means that southeastern areas can still see a shower or thunderstorm into a portion of Tuesday. High pressure building in for Wednesday but surface and aloft will result in sunshine and very warm weather.

TODAY: Low clouds / fog dissipate to a sun/high cloud mix this morning. Mostly sunny to partly cloudy this afternoon with only a slight chance of a pop-up shower or thunderstorm in the hills of north central MA and/or southwestern NH. Highs 73-80 coastal plain, 80-87 inland. Dew point 65+. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Low clouds and areas of fog return. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Low clouds / fog give way to sunshine. Highs 75-82 coast, 82-89 inland. Dew point 65+. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 65+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms later in the afternoon, favoring areas west of I-95. Highs 82-89. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind S to variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Additional showers possible RI and southeastern MA. Highs 82-89. Dew point 60+. Wind variable to W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 61-68. Dew point falls below 60. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 85-92 but a bit cooler coastal areas especially Cape Cod. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 17-21)

High pressure slides offshore with a bit of heat and humidity July 17. Next cold front moves through July 18 with the potential for showers/thunderstorms across the region. High pressure builds in behind that with fair, seasonably warm weather heading through the July 19-20 weekend through period’s end.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 22-26)

High pressure builds aloft, probably centered southwest of New England. This is a hotter pattern here, but also a northwest flow which allows a couple disturbance to bring shower and thunderstorm opportunities.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 11-15)

Improving weather is in the cards for our region today and this weekend. This is not a fresh Canadian air mass we have moving in, rather it’s just an area of drier air aloft and still fairly humid conditions at the surface as a weak area of high pressure drifts southward just east of New England. Large-scale onshore air flow results, easterly at first then shifting more southerly with the migration of the high pressure area. This will result in a slow warm-up, but no high heat. Additionally, residual moisture in the region can lead to pop up showers and thunderstorms mainly west of I-495 both today and Saturday. Cannot rule out an isolated severe storm if a cells is organized enough. Such activity should be absent Sunday. It’s Monday when our next chance of more widespread showers and thunderstorms occurs, in response to a cold front moving in from the west, with warm, humid southerly air flow ahead of it. Right now, timing looks later-day / evening for this activity, but will monitor for changes in timing. The front may be a little slow to cross the region completely, resulting in additional shower chances for southeastern areas into part of Tuesday, with those details to be determined.

TODAY: Cloudy start with areas of fog. Clouds break for sun at times midday on but a pop up shower possible west of I-495, mainly hills of central MA and southwestern NH. Highs 71-78 coastal plain, 78-85 inland. Dew point 60+. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Low clouds become widespread. Areas of fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind E under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Low clouds and areas of fog dominate at first, then becoming partly sunny. Highs 73-80 coastal plain, 80-87 inland. Dew point 65+. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Low clouds and areas of fog return. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 75-82 coast, 82-89 inland. Dew point 65+. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 65+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms later in the afternoon. Highs 82-90. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Areas of fog. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind S to variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Additional showers possible RI and southeastern MA. Highs 82-89. Dew point 60+. Wind variable to W up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 16-20)

High pressure dominates with fair, warm to hot weather middle of next week. Watching for next frontal system with shower and thunderstorm threat for about July 18 with fair, warm weather returning late period.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 21-25)

Pattern shift allows high pressure to build just to west and nearby with an overall warmer to hotter pattern. A west to northwest flow aloft can deliver passing showers and storms as disturbances move through the flow.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 10-14)

One more unsettled day before we see improvement Friday and this weekend. Today’s main issue is heavy rainfall this morning, mostly in a band just to the south of Boston down to northern and central RI and eastern CT. While this band can have some thunderstorms embedded in it, the main threat from it is flash flooding to impact some property and of course commuting. Use caution in this area. The disturbance responsible is causing a pretty widespread rainfall across the region – although with a break ongoing as I write this along much of the South Coast. Finally the shower activity will diminish and just become isolated by midday on, but we’ll remain under a blanket of clouds with a cool onshore air flow. As weak high pressure begins to exert its influence on us Friday and especially this weekend, we’ll see improved weather. We can still see some pop up showers on Friday and some areas of fog each night / early morning, but the general trend is for fair and slightly warmer weather and moderate humidity heading through the weekend. The next trough and frontal system arrives Monday with higher humidity and a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

TODAY: Cloudy. Widespread showers with possible embedded thunderstorms, heaviest eastern CT, northern and central RI, I-90 belt of MA during this morning with flash flood potential. Showers taper off becoming light and isolated midday on. Patchy fog this morning. Highs 68-75. Dew point 65+. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A shower possible. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Considerably cloudy but breaks of sun develop. A pop-up shower in the afternoon favors southwestern NH and central MA hills. Highs 71-78. Dew point 60+. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Fog patches. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 73-80, coolest coast. Dew point 60+. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 76-83, coolest South Coast. Dew point 60+. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 65+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs 82-90. Dew point 65+. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 15-19)

Frontal boundary may still be over southeastern areas with shower and thunderstorm risk July 15. High pressure dominates with fair, warm to hot weather middle of next week. Watching for next frontal system with shower and thunderstorm threat for later in the week.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 20-24)

Pattern shift allows high pressure to build just to west and nearby with an overall warmer to hotter pattern. A west to northwest flow aloft can deliver passing showers and storms as disturbances move through the flow, but can’t pinpoint such events this far in advance.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 9-13)

We’re back in an unsettled weather pattern that started with a few showers and thunderstorms in the area yesterday that blossomed into a more concentrated belt of storms coming in 2 parts and giving much of the region from I-90 southward quite a lightning show including some areas of torrential rainfall. Today, the disturbance that triggered the final round of storms late last night is still moving through with additional showers and embedded downpours this morning, but this activity will diminish today as the disturbance departs. We are left with a light but regionwide flow of marine air from the Atlantic as a frontal boundary sits just to our south. Areas of fog will result, and a general cloud cover with limited breaks. Any breaks / solar heating along with existing surface boundaries can fire off a few more showers and possible thunderstorms this afternoon – mainly near the South Coast and also inland generally west of I-495. As another disturbance crosses the region tonight, these will be morphed into a more general shower area that will give much of the region some needed rain overnight into Thursday, with heavier thunderstorms probably confined to areas well to the west – generally west of the WHW forecast area. This activity will diminish leaving us with just a lot of clouds and maybe a spot shower on Friday. Some weekend improvement seems in the cards as weak high pressure builds in, we go rain-free, and experience a modest warm-up.

TODAY: Areas of fog. A cloudy start with fairly widespread early showers and embedded downpours.. Mostly cloudy – partial sun possible – later morning on with pop up afternoon showers and possible thunderstorms mainly west of I-495 and south of I-90. Highs 75-82, coolest coast. Dew point 60+. Wind N to E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. A shower possible in the evening. Widespread showers return overnight including thunderstorms with heavy rain. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely, tapering off west to east afternoon. Areas of fog. Highs 68-75. Dew point in 60s. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A shower possible. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. A spot shower possible. Highs 71-78. Dew point in 60s. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Fog patches. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 73-80, coolest coast. Dew point 60+. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 76-83, coolest South Coast. Dew point 65+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 14-18)

Disturbance and frontal system brings a shower / thunderstorm chance to the region July 14 into July 15 followed by fair weather by the middle of next week. Next shower / thunderstorm chance comes at the end of the period. No major heat.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 19-23)

Early period, moderate humidity and temperatures, mainly fair weather with high pressure to the north dominant, keeping low pressure to the south far enough away to limit shower chances. Mid to late period some indications of high pressure building aloft with hotter weather again.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 8-12)

The remains of Chantal clipped Cape Cod and the Islands with heavy showers and thunderstorms in the early morning hours today, but have exited that region. We’re left with a another humid day, quite warm (not as hot as yesterday most areas). A cold front moving through the region from north to south will trigger additional showers and thunderstorms in scattered / clustered form mainly this afternoon, with a second surge possible in some areas tonight into early Wednesday as the front becomes mainly stationary just to the south. A little push from high pressure to the northeast should then limit the shower chances to the South Coast and well west of Boston for the balance of Wednesday, before a disturbance from the west increases the chances and coverage from west to east on Thursday, tapering off Friday as the disturbance continues onward to the east. Weak high pressure takes over Saturday with better weather. I am optimistic that the previously-mentioned disturbance and shower chance for Saturday will be something that occurs north of our region.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered to clustered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, some storms can be locally severe and some can produce torrential downpours with flooding. Highs 82-89 except 75-82 South Coast. Dew point 70+. Wind variable to SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Additional scattered to clustered showers and thunderstorms. Lows 66-73. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind variable to N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy – some limited sun possible. Scattered showers anywhere early, then favoring areas south of I-90 and west of I-495 later on. Highs 75-82, coolest coast. Dew point 60+. Wind N to E up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely, especially midday and afternoon. Chance of a thunderstorm. Highs 71-78. Dew point in 60s. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers diminish. Highs 71-78. Dew point in 60s. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-67. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 73-80, coolest coast. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 13-17)

Fair and warmer July 13 to finish off the weekend. Disturbance and frontal system brings a shower / thunderstorm chance to the region July 14 into July 15 followed by fair weather by the middle of next week. No major heat.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 18-22)

Into mid period, moderate humidity and temperatures, mainly fair weather with high pressure to the north dominant, keeping low pressure to the south far enough away to limit shower chances. Later in the period some indications of high pressure building aloft with hotter weather again.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 7-11)

The holiday weekend is over (unless you extended it) and we move into the heart of summer now. And today will certainly feel like it with heat and high humidity thanks to high pressure offshore. The increase in moisture, combined with solar heating, can lead to a few pop up showers and/or thunderstorms this afternoon, although most places will not see anything. Any of that activity dissipates this evening, but the clouds will increase overnight with both the approach of the remains of T.S. Chantal from the Southwest and a cold front from the northwest. The former will bring a batch of showers from pre-dawn to mid morning Tuesday, but heaviest and most concentrated activity is likely to occur over Cape Cod and the Islands. The latter will increase the shower and thunderstorm chances from northwest to southeast from midday through afternoon. With some sunshine, it will still be able to heat up and also it will be quite humid. Showers/storms will simmer down and diminish Tuesday night as the front pushes through, then settles to a stop near or off the South Coast Wednesday into late week. A little press of high pressure from the north will keep us mainly dry Wednesday with just a possible shower to the south and west of Boston. A wave of low pressure moving eastward along the front to our south will increase shower chances later Thursday into Friday. Wednesday through Friday will also be noticeably cooler than early week.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs 86-93 except 78-85 South Coast. Dew point 70+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH gusts 20-25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Any early isolated showers dissipate. Shower/thunderstorm chances increase especially east of I-95 overnight. Lows 71-78. Dew point near 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH becoming variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely, favoring eastern CT, RI, and southeastern MA early, then redeveloping from northwest to southeast midday through afternoon. Highs 82-89 except 75-82 South Coast. Dew point 70+. Wind variable to SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. A shower or thunderstorm possible early. Lows 66-73. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind variable to N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Lots of clouds / partial sun. A shower possible south and west of Boston. Highs 75-82, coolest coast. Dew point 60+. Wind N to E up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely, mainly in the afternoon. Chance of a thunderstorm. Highs 71-78. Dew point in 60s. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely, mainly morning and midday. Chance of a thunderstorm. Highs 71-78. Dew point in 60s. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 12-16)

The July 12-13 weekend will be governed by weak high pressure and mainly dry, though a spot shower or t-storm can’t be ruled out July 12 as an upper disturbance passes by. A modest warm-up but no high heat is expected. Disturbance brings increased shower / thunderstorm chances early next week with a drying trend by midweek.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 17-21)

Through mid period, moderate humidity and temperatures, mainly fair weather with high pressure to the north dominant, keeping low pressure to the south far enough away to limit shower chances. Later in the period some indications of high pressure building aloft with hotter weather again.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 6-10)

An area of high pressure slides offshore today while aloft the wind blows moderately from the northwest. Your Sunday starts off with moderate humidity and sunshine filtered by high clouds moving through in the aforementioned upper level flow. These high clouds thin out allowing brighter sun, while the offshore high starts to deliver higher dew point air to the region and the temperature heats up as the day goes on, turning what was a comfortable morning into a much less comfortable ending to the day. At least there is zero rain chance, making it a clean sweep of three rain-free days for the holiday weekend. Things are about to change, however. During Monday, high pressure sits offshore to our southeast, continuing to deliver high dew point air. Meanwhile, low pressure moving through the Great Lakes into the St. Lawrence Valley will begin to push a cold front our way. Additionally, tropical moisture from the remains of Chantal (a tropical storm coming ashore this morning in northern South Carolina) will be heading northeastward around the periphery of offshore high pressure. The increase in low level moisture combined with the fact we’ll still be in a fairly hot air mass will lead to the development of tropical showers of the isolated to scattered variety, perhaps a non-severe isolated thunderstorm or two in the region s well during Monday afternoon and early evening. However, these should fade / dissipate with the setting sun Monday evening. Tuesday will be a more unsettled day with more cloud cover, less heat (still fairly warm), high humidity, and much better shower / t-storm chances. Expect a ribbon of moisture associated with the remains of Chantal to bring some heavier showers and potential thunderstorms to southeastern areas of the WHW forecast area, particularly eastern CT, RI, and mostly east of I-95 in MA during Tuesday morning over a period of a few to several hours. This should be followed by a pause, then additional showers and thunderstorms anywhere in the region, but starting to the west and north and moving to the south and east with time, as the cold front moves across the region. This front should get far enough to the southeast to bring this activity to an end by early Wednesday morning after lingering into Tuesday night. The daytime hours of Wednesday look dry, mild, and moderately humid as a very small and weak area of high pressure noses in from the Gulf of Maine. As we head into midweek, the jet stream to our north will sink a little to the south, establishing a weak zonal flow pattern aloft. During this time, the next trough / disturbance will approach from the west, and it looks like a surface low pressure wave will travel along a frontal boundary still to our south, held there by high pressure in eastern Canada. This would be a mainly cloudy, occasionally wet, and cooler set up here for Thursday.

TODAY: Sun filtered by high clouds morning / brighter sun afternoon hours. Highs 88-95 except 80-87 South Coast and 73-80 Cape Cod and the Islands. Dew point rises through 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches in low elevations. Lows 68-75, warmest in urban centers. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs 86-93 except 78-85 South Coast. Dew point 70+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH gusts 20-25 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Any early isolated showers dissipate. Shower/thunderstorm chances increases especially east of I-95 overnight. Lows 71-78. Dew point near 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH becoming variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely, favoring eastern CT, RI, and southeastern MA early, then redeveloping from northwest to southeast midday through afternoon. Highs 78-85. Dew point 70+. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. A shower or thunderstorm possible. Lows 66-73. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a shower early in the day, favoring eastern areas. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Dew point 60+. Wind variable to E up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Highs 72-79. Dew point in 60s. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 11-15)

Continued easterly air flow and unsettled weather with shower chances July 11, then a transition to fair weather over the July 12-13 weekend (still a shower / t-storm chance July 12) with slightly warmer and humid weather. Watching another potential disturbance to the south to bring mild, high humidity, unsettled weather to the region early next week.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 16-20)

Heading through the remainder of mid July the strongest indications are for a pattern favoring a weak jet stream near or just north of the region, surface high pressure dominant in eastern Canada and low pressure dominant to our south. This leaves the region vulnerable to unsettled weather at times but without sustained major heat being a threat.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 5-9)

High pressure sits over our region today with fair, warm weather, but still fairly low humidity. Some high cloudiness will dim the early day sunshine, otherwise the sun will dominate. The high pressure area shifts offshore and opens the door to hotter and more humid conditions Sunday, but continued fair weather. The heat and humidity will continue (and peak) on Monday. While this is happening, we’ll start to see some clouds increase as moisture approaches from the south and a cold front approaches from the northwest. These systems quasi-converge on us Monday night and Tuesday, leading to shower and thunderstorm activity with less heat but high humidity. Wednesday, a weak ridge of high pressure builds in with a much-reduced shower / t-storm chance, somewhat reduced humidity, and lack of heat.

TODAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 81-88 but cooler back to 70s coast. Dew point sub-60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 63-70. Dew point near 60. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 88-95 except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Dew point rises through 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 67-74. Dew point around 70. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 88-95 except 80-87 South Coast, 70s Cape Cod. Dew point near 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible, mainly south of I-90 and in southwestern NH. Patchy fog. Lows 70-77. Dew point near 70. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs 78-85. Dew point 70+. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A lingering shower or thunderstorm early. Patchy fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 60s to near 70. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a shower. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Dew point 60+. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 10-14)

A trough of low pressure and broad scale onshore flow will bring unsettled and cooler weather to the region during July 10-11. Weak high pressure builds in thereafter with a return to mostly fair and slightly warmer weather, but no major heat indicated heading toward the mid point of July.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 15-19)

Still not much change from the lower-than-average outlook this period General pattern features weak west to southwest upper level flow with surface high pressure dominant to the north and low pressure to the south. This pattern can be unsettled at times, but also has periods of fair weather, and lacks sustained major heat.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 4-8)

High pressure will provide fair weather for Independence Day today and throughout the weekend, as it builds into the region today with mild and dry conditions, moves overhead Saturday with a warm-up beginning, and slides offshore Sunday when hot weather and higher humidity return. Sunshine will be dominant all 3 days. This evening if you plan to be out at a fireworks display or other celebration, very low dew point and fairly light wind will allow the temperature to cool fairly quickly so keep that in mind! Early next week will feature high humidity, with the continuation of heat on Monday as we’re between tropical moisture to our south and a slowly-approaching cold front from the northwest. Clouds will start to increase. Tuesday will be an unsettled day with showers and thunderstorms likely as the front moves into the region and also interacts with the moisture from the south.

TODAY (INDEPENDENCE DAY): Sunshine with a few fair-weather clouds. Highs 77-84. Dew point around 50 except lowering into 50s South Coast. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 58-65. Dew point lower to middle 50s. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 81–88 but cooling back to 70s at the coast. Dew point stays sub-60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 63-70. Dew point near 60. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 88-95 except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Dew point rises through 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 67-74. Dew point around 70. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 88-95 except 80-87 South Coast, 70s Cape Cod. Dew point near 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 70-77. Dew point near 70. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs 78-85. Dew point 70+. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 9-13)

A weak area of high pressure provides fair weather and slightly lower humidity July 9 before another disturbance brings back high humidity and shower/thunderstorm chances for July 10. Unsettled weather may linger July 11 with a wave of low pressure passing by to our south, before high pressure builds in with fair weather and moderate humidity for the July 12-13 weekend.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 14-18)

Not much change from the uncertain / low confidence mid July outlook. Strongest leaning is for high pressure dominant to the north, low pressure dominant to the south, with some opportunities for unsettled weather, while the main jet stream stays to the north in southern Canada. Currently no strong indication of the stronger west northwest flow materializing.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 3-7)

Today will be a very warm to hot day with moderate to high humidity, and a trough and cold front moving through the region from west to east will trigger at least scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon, ending from west to east in the early evening. The showers and storms should take the form of 1 or 2 general lines, but there should be scattered to at maximum broken coverage along them. Even though there are some limiting factors, there is enough moisture, instability, and heat present to allow at least a couple of thunderstorms to become severe, with a threat of larger hail and damaging wind gusts. Any thunderstorm can produce downpours and dangerous lightning, so if you have outdoor plans, be weather-aware. Tonight, a dry Canadian air mass arrives, and high pressure builds into the region for Friday, Independence Day, with low humidity, lots of sun, a few clouds, and seasonably warm air. It may even feel a bit cool in the shade with a breeze blowing as dew point temps will be quite low for July. The nighttime will be perfect for celebrations / fireworks displays – you may even need a light jacket! High pressure will be overhead early Saturday then slide offshore through Sunday. This keeps our weather fair through the weekend, but with an increase in heat and humidity so that it will be quite noticeable by Sunday. Hot, humid weather will continue Monday as high pressure sits offshore and a cold front is slow to approach from the northwest, likely holding its influence to just some increase in clouds from upstream showers and thunderstorms late-day or at night. One caveat for Monday though: There will be a trough and low pressure offshore to our south and Monday which may play a part in helping to develop a distinct South Coast sea breeze boundary, which can sometimes be a trigger for convection, so although it’s “day 5”, keep in mind that a couple pop up showers or thunderstorms can result from this set-up.

TODAY: Sunny start, then a sun/cloud combo with a 1 or 2 passing showers or thunderstorms possible in the afternoon until about sunset. Highs 83-90, but a bit cooler Cape Cod. Dew point in 60s. Wind W to SW 5-15 MPH, can be stronger gusts around any showers and storms.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 57-64. Dew point dropping to around 50 except to around 60 South Coast. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY (INDEPENDENCE DAY): Sun and passing clouds. Highs 77-84. Dew point around 50 except lowering into 50s South Coast. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 58-65. Dew point lower to middle 50s. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 81–88. Dew point near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 63-70. Dew point near 60. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 88-95 except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Dew point rises through 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 67-74. Dew point around 70. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Slight potential for isolated afternoon showers / t-storms south of I-90. Highs 90-97 except cooler South Coast. Dew point 70+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, may shift more SE near South Coast.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 8-12)

July 8 looks like a warm, humid, unsettled day with shower and thunderstorm chances as a cold front moves into and across the region. Middle of next week looks less humid and fair weather high pressure moving in. Late next week looks more humid with a few showers and thunderstorms possible as high pressure moves out and a weak trough arrives – details TBD.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 13-17)

Not much change from the uncertain / low confidence mid July outlook. Summarizing what I wrote yesterday: Recent guidance indicates a fairly typical summer look to the upper pattern with the jet stream to the north in Canada, south of that a weak ridge of high pressure near and off the US East Coast, a trough of low pressure Great Lakes / Midwest, and a ridge of high pressure out West. For us this pattern is mostly dry but with a couple episodes of showers and thunderstorms, warm to borderline hot at times but no persistent extreme heat. There continue to be some hints of a stronger look to the jet stream to the north later in the period that could indicate a shift to a pattern more driven by that getting ready to take place.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 2-6)

The slower shifting weather that I talked about the other day really shows itself today. In the last few days, while we did expect the hotter, humid Tuesday with a PM t-storm threat, the expectation was to clear out at night and have a sunny, warm, dry Wednesday. But the cold front had other ideas, and decided it’s going to slog slowly across our region, taking basically an extra 24 hours to finish its journey, finally sauntering off the South Coast by this evening. What does this mean for today’s weather? It means that dew points remain high in southern areas much of the day, but gradually lower from northwest to southeast. It means lots of clouds linger, with very little sunshine south of I-90, but partial sun to the north. Scattered showers are also expected south of I-90, favoring the South Coast, and can linger around Cape Cod and the Islands into early tonight before finally coming to an end. So what was expected to be a bright pleasant day ends up as a slow transition day. The forecast for Thursday has not changed. Expect a warm day with a little re-spike in humidity ahead of a cold front associated with a low pressure area that will pass by to our north. This will trigger showers and thunderstorms to our north and west by midday Thursday, and these will make a run at our region during the afternoon, but may struggle to hold together with limited coverage and a downward trend in intensity. This system leads in a refreshing Canadian air mass that’s going to result in Friday, Independence Day, being a “Top 10” kind of day with abundant sun, a few fair weather clouds, a refreshing breeze, seasonable warmth but very low humidity. Regionwide it will be a dry evening for fireworks displays etc. And fair weather is set to continue through the weekend with an up-trend in temperature and humidity from Saturday through Sunday as high pressure builds into the region.

TODAY: South of I-90 – mainly cloudy, scattered showers, highs 75-82, dew point near 70 falling through 60s later. From I-90 northward – clouds thin and break for partial sun, especially afternoon, highs 82-89, dew point lowers through 60s. Wind variable to W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouds and a few showers lingering Cape Cod / Islands early, otherwise clearing. Lows 60-67. Dew point lowers to upper 50s. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny start, then a sun/cloud combo with a passing shower or thunderstorm possible in the afternoon, favoring areas north of I-90. Highs 83-90, but a bit cooler Cape Cod. Dew point returns to the 60s. Wind W to SW 5-15 MPH, can be stronger gusts around any showers and storms.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 57-64. Dew point dropping to around 50. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY (INDEPENDENCE DAY): Sun and passing clouds. Highs 77-84. Dew point around 50. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 59-66. Dew point lower to middle 50s. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80–87. Dew point near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 63-70. Dew point near 60. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 86-93 except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Dew point in 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 7-11)

A frontal boundary approaches from the north July 7 with timing uncertain. While it may remain rain-free across most of the region, expect an increase in clouds and the potential for some showers and thunderstorms to the north by later in the day along with a continuation of hot, humid weather. Expectations are for that frontal boundary to make it down into the region, become stationary, and gradually dissipate through the middle of next week with a daily chance of showers / thunderstorms July 8-10 before high pressure builds in at the end of the period with fair weather.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 12-16)

There’s still a lot of uncertainty regarding the details of the mid July weather pattern. Guidance has shifted from a dry stretch to daily episodes of showers and thunderstorms and back again. Recent guidance indicates a fairly typical summer look to the upper pattern: Jet stream to the north in Canada, south of that a weak ridge of high pressure near and off the US East Coast, a trough of low pressure Great Lakes / Midwest, and a ridge of high pressure out West. For us this pattern is “mostly dry” but with a couple episodes of showers and thunderstorms, warm to borderline hot at times but no “extreme heat”. There are a few hints late-period of a stronger look to the jet to the north and we’ll have to watch this because it could signal some changes at and beyond mid month.