DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 11-15)

A stratus cloud layer developed and moved up into much of our region overnight / early this morning in response to some increasing moisture and a temperature inversion (warm above cool) at low levels. Today’s weather will be governed by high pressure which has now moved offshore to allow a milder southerly air flow, which brought in the moisture for the cloud cover – more extensive than I expected. These clouds will give way to more sun as we go through the morning to midday it will be quite a nice day overall, but even with that, a shield of high clouds will advance in from the south filtering the sun later in the day in advance of a low pressure system, much talked about this week, that will bring us a bout of rainy, windy weather later Sunday to early Tuesday. Not much has changed with the expectations for this system. The low pressure area that makes up the “storm” is actually going to consist of a broad overall circulation with several low centers within it, a first off the Carolinas which gives way to a second just east of the Delmarva and finally a third to the southeast of New England during the life cycle of the event. A tight pressure gradient between the low pressure circulation to the south and high pressure to the north will produce a solid onshore flow which can lead to minor to moderate coastal flooding near and at high tide times over several cycles from late Sunday to early Tuesday. Rainfall from the system arrives from south to north during the course of Sunday afternoon as it battles dry air at mid levels initially, before overcoming it. Rainfall continues generally unabated through Monday and then tapers off from north to south as the storm system begins to pull away on Tuesday. Any rain that occurs us beneficial for our long-term dry spell. Behind this system comes a chilly northerly air flow and we’ll still be under an upper trough so some clouds and maybe a passing rain shower can occur Wednesday, otherwise it will be a generally dry day.

TODAY: Low clouds break for sun, then increasing high clouds south to north later in the day. Highs 63-70. Wind SW to S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouds increase and thicken south to north. Lows 45-52. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Overcast. Rain arrives south to north afternoon. Highs 55-62. Wind E increasing to 10-20 MPH except 15-30 MPH South Coast / Cape Cod.

SUNDAY NIGHT / MONDAY / MONDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Rain and drizzle with areas of fog. Temperature fall to 48-55 then steady. Wind NE to E 15-25 MPH inland with gusts 30+ MPH and 25-35 MPH coastal areas with gusts 40+ MPH.

TUESDAY: Rain/drizzle lingers under overcast in the morning. Breaking clouds and a possible leftover rain shower in the afternoon. Highs 53-60. Wind NE 5-15 MPH inland and 15-25 MPH coast in the morning, N to NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts afternoon.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 42-49. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. A passing rain shower possible. Highs 55-62. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 16-20)

Upper level low pressure can bring a few showers of rain and even some higher elevation mix if early enough in the day October 16. High pressure nudges the upper low away and brings in fair weather after that, but watching for a large low pressure system to enter the Great Lakes region around the October 18-19 weekend and this may start to send some cloudiness our way and eventually the potential for some unsettled weather. This is part of the transition from a blocking pattern to a progressive pattern.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 21-25)

Shift to a more zonal (west to east) flow pattern with some up and down temperatures and a couple quick rain shower opportunities.

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 10-14)

Frost and areas of hard freeze have occurred early this morning away from coastal locations and urban centers due to a combination of dry air, clear sky, and calm wind with high pressure overhead overnight. Today will be a bright and cool day but with little wind in comparison to the gusty breeze of yesterday, as high pressure sits atop the region. The high will sink to the south and east tonight into Saturday, allowing a southwesterly air flow to warm it up a little bit by Saturday afternoon, which will also be a fair weather day. You will notice the appearance of high clouds from the south later Saturday ahead of a storm system down the coast. This storm is destined to move northward far enough to throw its rainfall into our region, along with a gusty wind by later Sunday through Monday. The storm will never make it all the way here though. In fact, the blocking pattern in place to help it exist and move up this way will also be what forces it back to the south and southeast Tuesday, when conditions will slowly improve here. Before that, though, during the late Sunday to late Monday / early Tuesday time frame, a few rounds of coastal flooding can occur at high tide times due to the moderate to strong onshore air flow with the storm. Rainfall may be moderate overall, with some pockets of heavier rainfall. This will benefit in reducing the long-term dry conditions, but will not put them to an end.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 56-63. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Fog patches in low elevations. Lows 33-40. Wind calm then SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clouds increase south to north. Lows 45-52. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Clouds thicken. Rain arrives south to north afternoon. Highs 55-62. Wind E increasing to 10-20 MPH except 15-30 MPH South Coast / Cape Cod.

SUNDAY NIGHT / MONDAY / MONDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Rain and drizzle with areas of fog. Temperature fall to 48-55 then steady. Wind NE to E 15-25 MPH inland and 25-35 MPH coastal areas including higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Rain/drizzle lingers under overcast in the morning. Breaking clouds and a possible leftover rain shower in the afternoon. Highs 53-60. Wind NE 5-15 MPH inland and 15-25 MPH coast in the morning, N to NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts afternoon.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 15-19)

The blocking pattern in place hangs on for a while and another disturbance may bring additional showers October 15 to early October 16 – details TBD. Drier weather follows as it looks now. Temperatures near to slightly below normal for the period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 20-24)

Shift to a more zonal (west to east) flow pattern with some up and down temperatures and a couple quick rain shower opportunities.

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 9-13)

A cold front moved across our region yesterday delivering a light to moderate rainfall and a much cooler air mass. A large area of high pressure to our west will build toward the region today, but the pressure gradient between it and a storm to our northeast will create a gusty breeze to emphasize the already below normal temperatures, and big contrast from the well above normal temperatures recently experienced. Tonight, high pressure builds right over the region, providing perfect radiational cooling conditions, and resulting in a widespread frost and scattered freeze, with the exception of the immediate coast where ocean water keeps it slightly warmer, and urban centers due to the “heat island effect”. This high pressure area will stay parked over the region Friday – a cool but tranquil day with lots of sunshine. It will then drift offshore Saturday with fair weather continuing, and a milder afternoon after a chilly start. After this, a big change is coming as a storm system forms down the coast and drifts up the coast toward New England. While the low center never actually gets this far north due to atmospheric blocking that will stop it in its tracks before sending it back to the south, it will come up against a high pressure area to the north, increasing the wind from the east and northeast, and its rain shield does look like it will make its way far enough north to give the region some needed moisture later Sunday through Monday. Currently, it remains to be seen just how much rain occurs. More certain are potential coastal flooding issues at the times of high tide late weekend and Monday. Some additional details will be provided in upcoming posts.

TODAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 55-62. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clear. Fog patches in low elevations. Lows 27-34 inland, 35-42 coast. Wind N under 10 MPH then calm.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 56-63. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Fog patches in low elevations. Lows 33-40. Wind calm then SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clouds arrive south to north. Lows 45-52. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Clouds thicken. Rain arrives south to north afternoon / evening. Highs 55-62. Wind E increasing to 10-20 MPH except 15-30 MPH South Coast / Cape Cod.

SUNDAY NIGHT / MONDAY: Overcast. Rain and drizzle with areas of fog. Temperature fall to 50-57 then steady. Wind NE to E 15-25 MPH, strongest coastal areas including some higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 14-18)

Storm system pulls away gradually October 14 with slow improvement expected, but may begin wet, windy and chilly. Remainder of the period finds our region on the western side of upper level low pressure and it’s a cool, mostly dry pattern but can’t rule out a few pop up showers either. This is a generalized outlook with fine-tuning to come.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 19-23)

Shift to a more zonal (west to east) flow pattern with some up and down temperatures and a couple quick rain shower opportunities.

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 8-12)

A cold front moves through the region today bringing showery weather, which tapers off from west to east this afternoon with a late-day clearing trend, especially from the I-95 belt westward. Clearing will take longer to reach the coastal plain, especially southeastern MA and RI, but these areas do so this evening. The front leads a much cooler air mass into the region, driven by Canadian high pressure, which while centered to our west will help generate a gusty breeze from the north tonight and Thursday, but as the high center builds over our region Thursday night, the wind will drop off, and the temperature will drop down. Some areas see a freeze, many areas see frost, and some see the end of the growing season Friday morning, though it will be a little “less chilly” along the coast where freeze and frost is less likely. Fair weather continues with a cool day Friday and a milder Saturday as the high slides offshore. Sunday, low pressure to our south will be drifting northward, and the question has been and remains “how far north”. I do think at this point our region being blanketed by its overcast is quite likely. There is also a decent chance that its rain shield makes its way into at least a portion of our region before the day ends. A cooler easterly air flow will become established as the low pressure area gets closer to the region.

TODAY: Cloudy with numerous to widespread showers and a slight chance of a thunderstorm through midday, then tapering off west to east early afternoon with a mid to late afternoon clearing trend starting west and making it into the I-95 belt with increasing sun and still some passing areas of clouds as well. Highs 64-71 by midday, but slowly falling temperature from west to east during the afternoon hours. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with gusts 20-25 MPH, shifting to NW from west to east across the region.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 42-49. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 55-62. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 27-34 inland, 35-42 coast. Wind N under 10 MPH then calm.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 56-63. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Radiaton fog patches. Lows 33-40. Wind calm then SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clouds arrive south to north. Lows 45-52. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Clouds thicken. Chance of rain southern areas in the afternoon. Highs 55-62. Wind E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible especially coastal areas.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 13-17)

Leaning toward low pressure being close enough for breezy, cool conditions with a chance of rain October 13, then pulling away with fair, cool weather into the middle of next week and a slight moderating trend as high pressure builds in late week.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 18-22)

Overall zonal pattern but with a little more amplification possible, bringing a couple shower threats to the region. Timing of these is uncertain this far in advance. Temperatures variable – close to normal for the period.

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 7-11)

One more “feel of summer” day today with an increasing south to southwest wind ahead of an approaching cold front, which will deliver showers late tonight into Wednesday as we transition to a cooler air mass at midweek. Dry weather returns from west to east as the front moves offshore later Wednesday, though some areas south of Boston may not see clearing until after the sun goes down. Dry weather dominates Thursday through Saturday. This period of time starts breezy and cool with high pressure centered to the west, then goes tranquil but still cool Friday as the high builds overhead, then we see a temperature moderation Saturday as the high slides offshore and we get its return flow from the southwest.

TODAY: Fog and stratus areas limit sun in some areas early to mid morning, otherwise a sun/cloud mix with most sun late morning to mid afternoon and less sun from west to east later in the day. Highs 68-75 South Coast, 75-82 elsewhere. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts late in the day.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely overnight from west to east. Lows 60-67. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts at times.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with showers likely in the morning. Showers end midday from west to east with a clearing trend late-day from the west. Highs 62-69. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 42-49. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 55-62. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 35-42. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Radiaton fog patches. Patchy frost low elevations. Lows 33-40. Wind calm.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 66-73. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 12-16)

The big question to be answered is how does the weather turn out for the balance of the long weekend (October 12-13)? Guidance is inconsistent on how to handle low pressure down the coast to the south. Run-to-run and model-to-model inconsistency is at maximum rendering the guidance untrustworthy. Given the pattern overall and recent guidance biases, in general, my tendency is still to lean toward the drier scenario with the low staying to the south. There’s at least some chance that it drifts far enough north to spread more clouds into the region Sunday and a chance of some rainfall, especially in southern areas, later Sunday or Monday, but this seems at the moment to be the most extreme foul weather scenario potential, which isn’t the best news since we are in need of rain to slow down expanding dry conditions. Either scenario is followed by mainly dry and slightly cooler weather heading into the middle of next week.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 17-21)

Overall pattern still looks dry with zonal flow and a couple quick shower threats from passing fronts.Temperatures variable but close to or slightly above normal overall.

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 6-10)

High pressure continues to deliver warm and dry weather to our region today, and this continues Tuesday too, but with an increase in both wind and cloud cover Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front. That front will cross the region at moderate speed Tuesday night through midday Wednesday with showers. This will be followed by cooler, drier weather from the end of Wednesday through Friday as another large high pressure area from Canada builds in our direction.

TODAY: Early fog patches dissipate with sunshine dominating. Highs 70-77 South Coast / Cape Cod, 77-84 elsewhere. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear except patchy ground fog forming. Lows 55-62. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny start / cloudy finish. Highs 68-75 South Coast, 75-82 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts late in the day.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely overnight from west to east. Lows 60-67. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts at times.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with showers likely in the morning. Showers end midday from west to east with a clearing trend late-day from the west. Highs 62-69. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 42-49. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 55-62. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 35-42. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 11-15)

There remains some uncertainty about the forecast for the long weekend (October 11-13). While it starts dry with high pressure in control, we have to watch low pressure to the south to see how far north it gets. Does it spread rain in or just clouds for a time? Remains to be seen. If rain does make its way far enough north, either or both October 12 & 13 are in play. Fair, cooler weather is expected toward the middle of next week. This entire forecast period will be fine-tuned as we go through this coming week.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 16-20)

Overall pattern still looks dry with zonal flow and a couple quick shower threats from passing fronts.Temperatures variable but close to or slightly above normal overall.

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 5-9)

No significant changes on this Sunday update from what’s been here the last couple of days. High pressure parks itself to our south the next few days with a continuation of the current warm spell, with fair weather. This morning is a little cool as a clear sky and light wind allowed for good radiational cooling, but we’ll warm up decently today, and then a lesser version of cooling takes place tonight and especially tomorrow night as we start to establish a more prominent southwesterly wind across the region. This also drives temps back up each day, with Monday probably being the warmest day for the region overall. An approaching trough sends more clouds into the region later Tuesday, and a cold front and associated band of showers will cross the region some time during the first 12 hours of Wednesday – timing to be refined further as the next few days go by. This will introduce a much cooler air mass later Wednesday and Thursday with the return of dry weather.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 76-83 though a little cooler along the coast. Wind SW up to 10 MPH becoming variable with coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 55-62. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 77-84, again a little cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 55-62. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 76-83, except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely overnight. Chance of a thunderstorm. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with showers likely in the morning. A sun/cloud mix in the afternoon. Highs 68-75. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to NW.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 42-49. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 57-64. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 10-14)

Leaning toward a moisture-starved front going by sometime late next week (~October 11) with just some clouds, but the shower threat staying to the north. Also watching a low pressure area to our south, but expecting it to stay far enough south to keep rain away, but maybe toss some clouds into the region mid period. Otherwise, looking generally dry with a bit of temperature variability but no extremes indicated.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 15-19)

Previous hints of more trough / unsettled weather in this part of the country are less prominent on medium range guidance, so leaning toward a continued dry pattern and monitoring trends going forward. Temperatures variable but close to or slightly above normal overall.

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 4-8)

Our weather continues to be controlled by a large high pressure area which will provide fair weather and a warming trend for the next few days. As the high center settles off to the south and east, a trough will eventually approach from the west, and the first thing you’ll notice from this is a more prominent wind by Tuesday. Eventually, a cold front will push a band (or two) of showers through the region at some point between Tuesday night and midday Wednesday – based on current expecting timing. A cooler air mass arrives behind this, but up until then, other than cool early mornings today and Sunday, and some cooler afternoon sea breeze in coastal areas this weekend, the next several days will recall the days of summer.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 72-79, cooler in some coastal areas. Wind W up to 10 MPH becoming variable with coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 53-60. Wind variable to SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 75-82 though a little cooler along the coast. Wind SW up to 10 MPH becoming variable with coastal sea breezes.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 55-62. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 76-83, again a little cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 55-62. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 76-83, except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely overnight. Chance of a thunderstorm. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with showers likely in the morning. A sun/cloud mix in the afternoon. Highs 68-75. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to NW.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 9-13)

High pressure brings fair weather early in the period and again later on, after a brief interruption from a frontal passage with a chance of a shower sometime October 11. Temperatures warm up pre-front, then cool down behind it.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 14-18)

Overall dry pattern expected, but a few hints showing up in guidance of a more prominent trough trying to move into the region later in the period that could bring a shower threat and cooler weather. This is not a high confidence outlook and I’ll monitor trends.

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 3-7)

High pressure continues its dominance on our weather through early next week. We have a chilly morning ongoing as I write this, due to the high center being right over the region and a night of radiational cooling having taken place. But a nice temperature recovery takes place during the day today. Temperatures will then reside in above to much above normal territory as high pressure parks itself south of our region over the weekend and early next week.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind variable under 10 MPH then SW up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 51-58. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 72-79, coolest South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 53-60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 75-82 though a little cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 55-62. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 76-83, again a little cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 55-62. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 76-83, except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 8-12)

A cold front brings a good chance of showers for a portion of September 8 – timing to be fine-tune. Another high pressure moves in with another dry weather stretch for the balance of this period, temperatures cooling at first then recovering to milder again.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 13-17)

Two brief shower threats (~October 13 & 17), otherwise a mainly dry and variable temperature pattern, but no extremes.

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 2-6)

High pressure dominates our weather through the next 5 days with dry conditions. The changes will come in the temperature department. Today, we’re still cool with an active breeze for a while between high pressure still to our north and far-offshore tropical activity. Tonight, the high center crests overhead, setting up strong radiational cooling. The daily temperature trend is up as the high pressure area settles to our south Friday through Monday, but even as temperatures go above normal, we’ll fall shy of any record highs in the region. The fair weather is great for outdoor activities, but is not-so-great for keeping drought at bay. Look for an expansion of drought conditions across the region once again, as well as increased fire danger in the days ahead.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing during the afternoon.

TONIGHT: Clear. Patchy low elevation fog. Lows 38-45. Wind calm.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind variable under 10 MPH then SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 51-58. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 72-79, coolest South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 53-60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 75-82 though a little cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 55-62. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 76-83, again a little cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 7-11)

Warm weather continues October 7, but watching for a frontal system from the west to bring a round of showers sometime between late that day into October 8, followed by the return to fair weather but with cooler conditions mid to late next week.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 12-16)

A zonal flow (generally west to east) pattern with some up and down temps and only a brief shower threat (~October 13). Early-period warm-up, then cooling back to seasonable levels.

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 1-5)

Welcome to October 2025! We’ll start the month off with a cool interlude, between some warm end-of-September days and another upcoming warm-up. First, we have a northeasterly air flow of cool Canadian air between a large high pressure area to our north and offshore tropical activity – where Hurricane Imelda is gaining strength and organization southwest of Bermuda while Hurricane Humberto, northwest of Bermuda, weakens rapidly and is set to merge with an upper trough before its remains become absorbed by Imelda, which will batter Bermuda later tonight through tonight, before quickly moving on and losing tropical characteristics heading into the North Atlantic waters. The only impact of note for our area, besides the gusty coastal breeze, will be some large ocean swells and rough surf along the coast during the next couple days, which can lead to some splash-over and minor flooding during high tide times. We are not at a time of astronomically high tides so this will lessen the impact somewhat. Weather-wise, we keep a dry spell going on through the coming weekend, with a significant warm-up in the cards as high pressure first drifts over our region then sinks to the south, giving us a toasty return flow, making the first weekend of October feel a tad bit more like late summer instead.

TODAY: Ocean-effect clouds MA South Shore to South Coast, dissipating later. Otherwise sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind NE 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH eastern coastal areas including higher gusts, especially MA South Shore to Cape Cod.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 42-49. Wind NE 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH Cape Cod including higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing during the afternoon.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy low elevation fog. Lows 38-45. Wind calm.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind variable under 10 MPH then SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 51-58. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 72-79, coolest South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 53-60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 75-82. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 6-10)

High pressure parked to the south continues the fair, warm weather early next week until a cold front from the west brings a chance of showers sometime during the second half of October 7 through the first half of October 8 – based on current expected timing. This will be followed by a return to dry weather but with cooler air for the balance of this period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 11-15)

Expectation continues to be for a zonal flow (generally west to east) pattern with some up and down temps and only a brief shower threat (~October 13). The warm-up would occur before shower threat, then a cool-down after.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 30 – OCTOBER 4)

This last day of September starts with filtered sun as the high cloud shield extending far north of TS Imelda and an associated moisture plume moves out, and the sun brightens as the day goes on. It will be a mild day with a weak high pressure area just to our south, but later in the day you’ll notice a wind shift to the north and northeast, and the breeze increasing by evening. This will be due to a fairly strong cold front that goes by otherwise unnoticeable – very few clouds and no rainfall whatsoever. At midweek we’ll be breezy and much cooler from a large, stronger Canadian high pressure area to our north and the tropical activity far to our southeast and south (Humberto and Imelda). Later this week the high center will build right over our region then sink to the south with continued dry weather and a warm up to start the weekend.

TODAY: Filtered sun becomes brighter with time as high clouds gradually decrease, otherwise just a few passing fair-weather clouds this afternoon. Highs 71-78. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to N to NE 10-20 MPH with higher gusts especially along the coast.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 46-53. Wind NE 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH Cape Cod including higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind NE 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH MA South Shore through Cape Cod including higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 42-49. Wind NE 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH Cape Cod including higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing during the afternoon.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy low elevation fog. Lows 38-45. Wind calm.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind variable to SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 48-55. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 70-77, coolest South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 5-9)

High pressure to the south provides fair weather and above normal temperatures into early week. Watch for a cold front with a shower threat later October 7 to early October 8 followed by fair and cooler weather.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 10-14)

Zonal flow pattern. Warm-up early period, shower threat with next front mid period, cool-down late period.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 29 – OCTOBER 3)

High pressure provides fair and mild weather today with plenty of sun that may become filtered by a shield of high clouds fanning up from the south. Those clouds are a product of a plume of moisture connected to Tropical Storm Imelda in the Bahamas. “Big brother” Humberto, a strong hurricane set to curve northwest to northeast in the western Atlantic, west of Bermuda, over the next couple of days. Imelda’s track will feature a slow northward movement and a hard right turn, following Humberto out to sea other than threatening Bermuda while passing by there as a hurricane later this week. Back at home, our mild and fair weather continues Tuesday, but a strong cold front slides through the region from north to south. This moisture-starved front will produce nothing but some clouds (no rain) and a wind shift to north and northeast. A larger high pressure area in eastern Canada will then deliver a cool airmass to our region for midweek, along with more wind between it and the offshore tropical systems. By the end of the week the high to the north will build closer and the wind will ease as fair weather continues here.

TODAY: Sunshine becoming filtered by high clouds from south to north. Highs 75-82 except 68-75 South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind variable under 10 MPH early becoming SW up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy ground fog interior low elevations. Lows 53-60. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 71-78. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to N to NE 10-20 MPH with higher gusts especially along the coast.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 46-53. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 42-49. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing during the afternoon.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy low elevation fog. Lows 38-45. Wind calm.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind variable to SW up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 4-8)

High pressure sinks to the south providing dry weather and allowing a warm-up this weekend (October 4-5) as well as into the start of next week before a cold front swiftly moves through with maybe a brief shower threat about October 7, followed by a shot of cooler air from Canada with another high building in.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 9-13)

Zonal (west to east) general flow pattern expected. Overall dry regime continues. Cool at first, warming up, a frontal system may bring a round of showers before we cool down again.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 28 – OCTOBER 2)

An area of mid and upper level moisture moved through overnight and will exit today with the last of the rain early this morning ending near the South Coast, and a clearing trend from west to east with increasing sun, and it will turn out quite warm this afternoon as well. A cold front will slide across the region from northwest to southeast this evening, and a few showers that it produces in northern New England will largely dissipate before getting to our area, but one or two may survive the journey as far as southeastern NH. Behind this, high pressure builds in tonight and we’ll see a rather significant temperature drop due to lower dewpoint air and calming winds. High pressure remains in control Monday and Tuesday with two mild days and a cool night between. We’ll see some high cloudiness fan into the region and filter the sun during Monday – associated with the happenings well to our south (more on that in a moment). Tuesday, another cold front will drop through the region, but not quickly enough to prevent one more mild day. It’s at midweek, Wednesday and Thursday, when the pressure gradient between the tropical system currently Tropical Depression 9 but likely soon to acquire the name Imelda as a tropical storm interacts with a large high pressure area building out of Canada. This will induce an active northeast wind here and also deliver a much cooler air mass to the region. A little more about tropical activity: Powerful Hurricane Humberto is expected to move northwest then curve northeast between Bermuda and the US East Coast – a little closer to Bermuda, while expected TS Imelda makes its way north northwest through the Bahamas, then gets captured by Humberto before fully reaching the US Southeast Coast, with a future path likely being more to the east and away from any land areas. There’s still some uncertainty with this and it needs to be closely monitored. Either way, some heavier rainfall can impact portions of the Southeast for a while, but it looks like the situation will not be as serious as it could have been.

TODAY: Early-morning light rain near Cape Cod / Islands comes to an end. Clouds give way to sun west to east. Highs 70-77 South Coast, 78-85 elsewhere. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts by late in the day.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy with a slight chance of a shower southern NH early, otherwise mostly clear, but patchy fog in low elevations overnight. Lows 46-53 rural / suburban areas, 53-60 urban centers. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to NW in the evening then diminishing to near calm overnight.

MONDAY: Sunshine becoming filtered by high clouds from south to north. Highs 75-82 except 68-75 South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind variable under 10 MPH early becoming SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy ground fog interior low elevations. Lows 53-60. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 71-78. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to N to NE 10-20 MPH with higher gusts especially along the coast.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 46-53. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 42-49. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 3-7)

With the increasing chance that the tropical systems staying further south and moving to sea, and high pressure dominating our region, this looks like a mainly dry period of weather for our region with a temperature moderation early to mid period then a cool-down late period with the arrival of a cold front from the west, possibly producing a brief shower threat.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 8-12)

A little less uncertainty in today’s look out this far. Expecting a zonal flow pattern with a front or two to pass by, but little in the way of any rain threat. Variable temperatures will average out close to normal overall.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 27 – OCTOBER 1)

A generally dry and mild weekend, mostly dominated by high pressure, will be interrupted, kind-of, by an episode of cloudiness and maybe a little rain near the South Coast, mainly tonight as a plume of mid level moisture extending off low pressure to our south goes quickly by in the mid and upper wind, rendering the interruption nearly negligible. So, a nice weekend really. We hold onto the above normal temperatures Monday as well with more fair weather as high pressure continues its hold on the region. But some changes follow this as we say bye to September on Tuesday and hello to October on Wednesday. A strong cold front will move down from the north and northeast, pushed by a big Canadian high pressure area that will not only deliver much cooler air, but also more wind, as the pressure gradient tightens up between that high and tropical shenanigans occurring well to our south and southeast at the time. Shenanigans you ask? Well, these are the long-talked-about, well-advertised, and in some cases over-hyped tropical cyclones, you know the ones that some social media sites warned would “Fujiwhara” (or “Fujiwara” depending on your preferred spelling) into a monster hurricane that would basically swallow the entire eastern part of North America, and variations of that scenario. I hope that by now many folks are becoming wiser to the bogus information out there and paying less attention to it. What’s really up with these systems? Well, as of early this morning, we have Hurricane Humberto, located well south southeast of Bermuda and a significant distance northeast of the Leeward Islands. While Humberto is forecast to become a major hurricane, the current forecast track takes it northeast of the Caribbean, well east of the Bahamas, well off the US East Coast, and re-curving west of Bermuda, sparing direct major impact there. If this takes place, that’s about as best-case scenario as you can have with a hurricane in the place it’s in now. Also, the second system, erroneously called “Imelda” over and over, before it’s named. Yes, it will likely end up with that name, because it’s likely to become a tropical storm today with nothing else in the basin to develop before that would happen, but until that moment it’s referred to in the present as “Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine”. This system is forecast to become the “I” storm, strengthen steadily but not rapidly, maybe reaching minimal hurricane status over the next few days while approaching the US Southeast Coast. Now that model initialization is a little more trustable thanks to having a low center to initialize for the system, its solutions can be looked at a little more seriously. And immediately a trend emerges, and that is for a non-landfall scenario – a temporary impact with some heavier rain bands and flooding potential for portions of the Carolinas, coastal impact from heavy surf, but a non-direct hit, and in fact a situation where the storm then starts to move away from the coastline, following in the wake of Humberto out to sea. Will this be the final solution? We don’t know yet, but it’s a trend worth paying attention to…

TODAY: Sunshine become more limited as the day goes on. Highs 68-75, coolest coast. Wind N to variable up to 10 MPH with developing coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A little light rain possible south of I-90. Lows 50-57. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Early clouds eastern and southern areas, then sunshine dominates. Highs 68-75, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy ground fog interior low elevations. Lows 52-59. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-82 except 68-75 South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy ground fog interior low elevations. Lows 53-60. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 71-78. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to N to NE 10-20 MPH with higher gusts especially along the coast.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 46-53. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 2-6)

Cool and breezy October 2 as high pressure sits to the north, then it builds over the region with continued dry weather and more tranquil conditions – chilly nights and slightly milder days heading through the balance of this period. The previous outlook discussed the need to watch tropical moisture to the south for possible late-period impact, but this was dependent on tropical moisture coming from the westernmost tropical system mentioned above, assuming a scenario that took it fully into the US Southeast. If the current trend of keeping it more offshore and eventually turning it away from the coast ends up the outcome, that moisture would be unavailable to be pulled northward by the pattern and we would never hear from it here. This scenario would allow high pressure to maintain control through the period. Again with the outcome still not certain, the confidence level of this outlook remains lower than average.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 7-11)

A lot of uncertainty which is always triggered by previous uncertainty (you know how it goes by now). Leaning dry to start, wet weather chance later in the period with temperatures not far from normal.